Extend Burnes

[Just Regular]

Some of how I look at it is 2028 is a season Adley joins Burnes as a MLB FA, and even if Rubenstein supports the roster to the level of two $30mm players, is Burnes in your top 2 then?

Re-run the scenario with Gunnar as a 2029 FA, as Burnes is likely to command a 5th year easy.

2030 and Grayson if he commands 6, 2031 and Holliday if he commands 7.

How Bradish and Grayson grow or not as championship caliber pitchers is also valuable information to collect assessing how badly your roster needs this guy.

[DrungoHazewood]

11 hours ago, EddeeEddee said:

You're making the mistake of comparing pitchers to hitters using a one size fits all metric that keeps proving to be flawed and has nothing to do with compensation. 

Even if hitting is more valuable in what is probably a mostly meaningless "WAR" (and again which one, bWAR, fWAR? -- none of this is fixed), it's scarcity of talent that keeps compensation high for great starting pitching, despite the risks.  Supply and demand is real, WAR not as much if at all. 

WAR, to the extent it has value or shows value, is better for comparing players at similar positions.  Meanwhile, comparing Gerrit Cole to Mookie Betts, stripped of real world factors like need and scarcity in the field or on the mound, is fun but has no practical point.

So your response is to question the metric?

It's rWAR, as I said in the original post, Baseball Reference's flavor. Fangraph's version would be less generous to pitchers, with the top five over that period less valuable, at 28-34. And not that I want anyone to use Win Shares, but that's significantly less generous to pitchers than even fWAR. Essentially every major modern value metric shows elite pitchers as less consistently good/valuable than the top non-pitchers.

But even if they're somewhat less valuable, they're still going for 8-10M per win, so a top starter will get $200-300M or more despite high injury risk, which leads to high performance risk. 6.5 of the top 10 contracts ($/year) are for pitchers. And all of those pitchers have missed time due to injury.

[DrungoHazewood]

11 hours ago, baltfan said:

You have to have pitching to win. They are definitely more of a risk, but they also come cheaper than the best position players because of the risk.  Every hitter you list got more than every one of those pitchers. 

Not in terms of average annual value. Maybe in total compensation over the life of the deal.

[DirtyBird]

All I know is, Burnes better not lose tonight 

[Rbiggs2525]

9 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

All I know is, Burnes better not lose tonight 

I feel like I say this every game he pitches. Will be interesting to see if McCann catches tonight. 

[DirtyBird]

1 minute ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I feel like I say this every game he pitches. Will be interesting to see if McCann catches tonight. 

I’m going to guess “no”, since he caught on Sunday. It would be very telling if he does. I don’t think it would be a good management decision to do that at this point in the season.

[sportsfan8703]

How big is to look at the upcoming games and see Burnes, Bradish, and Grayson, all pitching in the same series. WOW. 

[DirtyBird]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

How big is to look at the upcoming games and see Burnes, Bradish, and Grayson, all pitching in the same series. WOW. 

Bradish just had a 2.2 inning, 5 run outing, and is coming off a forearm issue that forced him to miss much of the spring. I'd say I am concerned about his upcoming start, especially since his turn in the rotation is still TBD.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

All I know is, Burnes better not lose tonight 

The Orioles lost 196 times in games that Jim Palmer started.

[DirtyBird]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The Orioles lost 196 times in games that Jim Palmer started.

How many of them were as important as tonight’s game?

[Osornot]

On 6/2/2024 at 9:36 AM, Big Al said:

Considering our shallow starting pitching pool, should we put on a full court press to extend Corbin Burnes?

Excellent question.  I would rather invest in a 3-4 inning bullpen that provides the best chance to be shut down - no large $$ commitments to pitchers into their mid to late 30s.... and/or possibly go the one-year Verlander-type 40M contract (I know Mets went 2 years - hypothetical).
 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

How many of them were as important as tonight’s game?

I don't know... 50%? 75%  No matter the outcome tonight's game will move the O's championship probability a small fraction of 1%.

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Do you think Burnes would go for a 5-year deal? I'm guessing someone else will offer 6 or 8. And it's unlikely the Orioles offer so much more per year he'd take the shorter deal.

I don't know what some of these teams will do, but I think some of these teams are also seeing the risks of those 6+ year contracts for pitchers. 

I've rather add more $$ to each year than extend the years past 5. 

[Sanfran327]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't know what some of these teams will do, but I think some of these teams are also seeing the risks of those 6+ year contracts for pitchers. 

I've rather add more $$ to each year than extend the years past 5. 

Does a 5/200 contract concern you for Burnes?

[DirtyBird]

I think there is something to Burnes physical development - starting pitching and throwing hard later than most guys in relation to his durability. Even if his K rate does continue to decline, he could still be a low injury risk, effective pitcher through the end of a longer contract.