Choices: how many big long term contracts will the O’s be able to afford?

[Sports Guy]

I think this is the wrong question.

Paying up for elite talent isn’t what you look at. Look at those middling deals.  They really drive up the payroll too.

Look at Atlanta right now.

Ozuna, Jimenez, Morton, Iglesias, D’Arnaud, Minter and Johnson.

Those guys are making 83.2M.  That’s about 1/3 of their payroll.

Some of those guys are good and even above average players at times but other times not so much.

I think you should be able to get their normal production for a fraction of the cost.

All the extensions are one thing but these deals can be very harmful to the payroll.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

If I were the O's I'd offer Gunnar 15/500 this offseason and see if he'll bite. With an opt-out around year eight.

I don't know how you'd do Adley's extension. I don't want to insult him, but as a catcher who's already 26 you just can't give him anything like that. It would have to be 6/180 or something.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think this is the wrong question.

Paying up for elite talent isn’t what you look at. Look at those middling deals.  They really drive up the payroll too.

Look at Atlanta right now.

Ozuna, Jimenez, Morton, Iglesias, D’Arnaud, Minter and Johnson.

Those guys are making 83.2M.  That’s about 1/3 of their payroll.

Some of those guys are good and even above average players at times but other times not so much.

I think you should be able to get their normal production for a fraction of the cost.

All the extensions are one thing but these deals can be very harmful to the payroll.

 

That's why you try really hard to extend Gunnar, Adley and probably Holliday, and the rest you probably don't.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

That's why you try really hard to extend Gunnar, Adley and probably Holliday, and the rest you probably don't.

I may not extend Adley, just depends on how many years but definitely agree on the other 2..Mayo and Basallo are on the cusp imo too.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If I were the O's I'd offer Gunnar 15/500 this offseason and see if he'll bite. With an opt-out around year eight.

I don't know how you'd do Adley's extension. I don't want to insult him, but as a catcher who's already 26 you just can't give him anything like that. It would have to be 6/180 or something.

So Adley makes about 45M the next 3 years.  So, a 3/135 extension?  45M a year?  Seems excessive.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

So Adley makes about 45M the next 3 years.  So, a 3/135 extension?  45M a year?  Seems excessive.

I don't know, I didn't put a whole lot of thought into it. He is basically a 5-6 win catcher, pretty clearly the best catcher in baseball. But you're probably right, 3/100 on top of 3/45 may be more reasonable. 6/150? 8/200? Somewhere in there.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So Adley makes about 45M the next 3 years.  So, a 3/135 extension?  45M a year?  Seems excessive.

Yeah, I don’t think Drungo thought too hard about that one.  8/$180 would be more like it.  

[Sports Guy]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

I don't know, I didn't put a whole lot of thought into it. He is basically a 5-6 win catcher, pretty clearly the best catcher in baseball. But you're probably right, 3/100 on top of 3/45 may be more reasonable. 6/150? 8/200? Somewhere in there.

So that’s the question, how long do you go with him?

6 years is ideal but I doubt he signs that. Over 8 years is a bad idea.

So, 6-8 years. 
 

2025: 7M

2026: 15M

2027: 20M

2028: 28M

2029: 28M

2030: 30M

2031: 35M

7/163…Does he sign that?

[DrungoHazewood]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I may not extend Adley, just depends on how many years but definitely agree on the other 2..Mayo and Basallo are on the cusp imo too.

Is Basallo really going to be a catcher, and keep hitting? He has several ways he can go. And it's a little complicated because I have my doubts he's in the same league with the glove as Rutschman.

Just kind of guessing here, but my gut feel is that Basallo is more Carlos Delgado than Rutschman or Lance Parrish or Ted Simmons or whatever comp you want to use for a big-hitting catcher. And Delgado is more of a ceiling than a destiny... But you have to love a kid who can handle AA pitching at 19.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Is Basallo really going to be a catcher, and keep hitting? He has several ways he can go. And it's a little complicated because I have my doubts he's in the same league with the glove as Rutschman.

Just kind of guessing here, but my gut feel is that Basallo is more Carlos Delgado than Rutschman or Lance Parrish or Ted Simmons or whatever comp you want to use for a big-hitting catcher. And Delgado is more of a ceiling than a destiny... But you have to love a kid who can handle AA pitching at 19.

Basallo would be my back up but he clearly has a far better and more accurate arm than Adley. Whether he does the other things better who knows.

But he’s Yordan Alvarez upside with the ability to catch some and he’s very young.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So that’s the question, how long do you go with him?

6 years is ideal but I doubt he signs that. Over 8 years is a bad idea.

So, 6-8 years. 
 

2025: 7M

2026: 15M

2027: 20M

2028: 28M

2029: 28M

2030: 30M

2031: 35M

7/163…Does he sign that?

Maybe? His thought process would probably be that's through age 33. Which means his next contract isn't going to be anything like that big. Most catchers are in steep decline by then, or shortly thereafter. And the idea you could move him to another position is silly. So he might hold out for more, knowing this is his only big contract.

[DrungoHazewood]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Basallo would be my back up but he clearly has a far better and more accurate arm than Adley. Whether he does the other things better who knows.

But he’s Yordan Alvarez upside with the ability to catch some and he’s very young.

I like the idea that he catches 40-50 games a year, DHs/1B the rest, and OPSes .950. But that's a weird profile. I'm struggling to think of anyone who ever did that. Mostly (i.e. 99% of the time) if you have a bat like that they just move you to 1B/DH/OF and be done with it.

Okay, King Kelly. In his prime he'd catch some, but play more at other positions. Of course this was 140 years ago.

Gene Tenace. Kind of. A little over half his games behind the plate.

[G54377]

Gunnar is by far the most important money we need to spend. Adley is a bit of an inherent risk being a catcher. Burnes... I think that price will be too high for us to be comfortable with dishing it out. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Maybe? His thought process would probably be that's through age 33. Which means his next contract isn't going to be anything like that big. Most catchers are in steep decline by then, or shortly thereafter. And the idea you could move him to another position is silly. So he might hold out for more, knowing this is his only big contract.

Right..something more what Frobby said is possible.

But is that a smart deal?  Is that a deal the Os should be doing?

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I like the idea that he catches 40-50 games a year, DHs/1B the rest, and OPSes .950. But that's a weird profile. I'm struggling to think of anyone who ever did that. Mostly (i.e. 99% of the time) if you have a bat like that they just move you to 1B/DH/OF and be done with it.

Okay, King Kelly. In his prime he'd catch some, but play more at other positions. Of course this was 140 years ago.

Gene Tenace. Kind of. A little over half his games behind the plate.

It is an odd profile but think of the roster advantage you have with him as a back up C. Most back up C can’t hit.

Now, can he stay at C?  That remains to be seen but all indications are he can.