How much longer for Mullins

[DrungoHazewood]

On 6/9/2024 at 8:33 AM, Flash- bd said:

Yeah, it's really weird for this to happen at 28/29. I've gotta think the team gives him a lot of rope to try to figure it out. How many players have posted a .775 OPS (with no season under .721) in their 25-28 year seasons to then fall off a cliff at 29? Question for @DrungoHazewood...doesn't seem like a very likely trajectory. 

I'd bet there's no small number of players who've fallen off a cliff at whatever age you pick. Not commonplace, but far from rare. Will depend on criteria, like how you define "off a cliff".

Famous ones come to mind like George Scott. First two years in the league he hit .273 with a 122 OPS+. Third year (age 24, not quite the same) he hit .171 with a 40 OPS+. Adam Dunn had a 100+ OPS plus every year of his career from 21-30, including 141 from 29-30, then at 31 hit .159 with a 54 OPS+.

Mike Devereaux had a 54 OPS+ right in the middle of his career at 31 (was that the year he got beaned?). Mike Davis of the A's was a very solid hitter from 26-28, then kind of randomly hit .196 with a .530 OPS at 29. Scott Brosius had OPS+es of 114, 127, 53, 121 from ages 28-31. Mark DeRosa had a .614 OPS at 29 then was pretty solid the next five years. Paul Blair was regularly an above-average hitter through 30, then at 31 he hit .218 with a 54 OPS+.

[Flash- bd]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

 

I'd bet there's no small number of players who've fallen off a cliff at whatever age you pick. Not commonplace, but far from rare. Will depend on criteria, like how you define "off a cliff".

Famous ones come to mind like George Scott. First two years in the league he hit .273 with a 122 OPS+. Third year (age 24, not quite the same) he hit .171 with a 40 OPS+. Adam Dunn had a 100+ OPS plus every year of his career from 21-30, including 141 from 29-30, then at 31 hit .159 with a 54 OPS+.

 

Mike Devereaux had a 54 OPS+ right in the middle of his career at 31 (was that the year he got beaned?). Mike Davis of the A's was a very solid hitter from 26-28, then kind of randomly hit .196 with a .530 OPS at 29. Scott Brosius had OPS+es of 114, 127, 53, 121 from ages 28-31. Mark DeRosa had a .614 OPS at 29 then was pretty solid the next five years. Paul Blair was regularly an above-average hitter through 30, then at 31 he hit .218 with a 54 OPS+.

Maybe a bit of confirmation bias / narrative fallacy on my part, but I feel like this also goes to what I'm saying...Dunn at 31, Devereaux at 31, but not at 29. Probably some kind of injury circumstance with Brosius or DeRosa, no? 

I guess my point is that if I were a betting man, I'd bet that Cedric hasn't suddenly turned from (95, 137, 107,) 101 OPS+ to 57 OPS+ from age 28 to 29. I'd bet more on him ending up somewhere around 85-95. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Flash- bd said:

Maybe a bit of confirmation bias / narrative fallacy on my part, but I feel like this also goes to what I'm saying...Dunn at 31, Devereaux at 31, but not at 29. Probably some kind of injury circumstance with Brosius or DeRosa, no? 

I guess my point is that if I were a betting man, I'd bet that Cedric hasn't suddenly turned from (95, 137, 107,) 101 OPS+ to 57 OPS+ from age 28 to 29. I'd bet more on him ending up somewhere around 85-95. 

Jeff Francoer is an example of a guy who dropped off drastically at age 28.  Through age 27, he had an OPS+ of 96, but then 77 over the rest of his career.  But it’s definitely not the typical aging curve.  

[Just Regular]

Brian Kenny's show this afternoon had a graphic that 2024's YTD 93 WRC+ among center fielders is the lowest since 1900.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, Flash- bd said:

Maybe a bit of confirmation bias / narrative fallacy on my part, but I feel like this also goes to what I'm saying...Dunn at 31, Devereaux at 31, but not at 29. Probably some kind of injury circumstance with Brosius or DeRosa, no? 

I guess my point is that if I were a betting man, I'd bet that Cedric hasn't suddenly turned from (95, 137, 107,) 101 OPS+ to 57 OPS+ from age 28 to 29. I'd bet more on him ending up somewhere around 85-95. 

I'd also guess that he's not 100%. Nagging injury, eyesight, illness, something.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

Brian Kenny's show this afternoon had a graphic that 2024's YTD 93 WRC+ among center fielders is the lowest since 1900.

But is there any reason for that, or just one of those things? Like a significant fraction of 1950s CFers being Mantle, Mays, Snider, and Ashburn, and like 40% of 1960-70s SSs hitting .195 with no power or walks. I don't think anyone is choosing poor-hitting CFs to focus on defense or baserunning or whatever.

Edited June 10 by DrungoHazewood

[Just Regular]

39 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

But is there any reason for that, or just one of those things? Like a significant fraction of 1950s CFers being Mantle, Mays, Snider, and Ashburn, and like 40% of 1960-70s SSs hitting .195 with no power or walks. I don't think anyone is choosing poor-hitting CFs to focus on defense or baserunning or whatever.

Maybe 2024 is just Julio Rodriguez going Kevin Kiermaier.

I do think as Orioles fans we got to see Britton's ground balls and Machado-Hardy left side infield defense die on the vine as Raysian run prevention strategies harnessing Driveline trainees got a bunch of strikeouts and bats maybe needed to play more for the HR.

Kiermaier, Myles Straw, Enrique Bradfield, Harrison Bader commanding Jordan Montgomery as a NYY preferred postseason asset are some instances of clubs prioritizing defense first CF.

[theobird]

Thanks so much, once again Roy.