Cade Povich 2024

[theobird]

I had the opposite reaction. I thought it was a very gutty performance from a kid who obviously did not have his best going for him. Thats going to happen, but for him to hang in there and tough it out was very impressive to me. 

With Means and Bradish out, we had all better hope that Cade Povich just builds on this and continues to improve. Because let’s face it, this is a very good baseball team, whose WS aspirations have taken a major hit with the losses of the above mentioned and Wells.

[Roy Firestone]

7 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

Definitely red flags, let the Yankees see him again in a couple of weeks with Judge and with that lack of command, and it would be a lot uglier.

Maybe. And I was very underwhelmed by his lack of command, but it WAS only his third MLB start, and in  a Yankee Stadium debut, I'm sure the jitters were there. His command was lousy but many of his pitches were fairly close...I think he can be worked with because his curve has good movement. In no way am I comparing him to the great Koufax, but remember how bad Koufax was with walks when he began his career.From 1955 through 1960, he won 36 and lost 40, with 405 walks in 691 2/3 innings. His ERA over this period was 4.10.Again, he's light years away from Koufax...but command can be harnessed, at least for our sake, I hope so.

[CaptainRedbeard]

On 6/14/2024 at 12:20 PM, Jim'sKid26 said:

Two questions:

1) Why do you feel this way about changeups? Just curious, not a slight.

2) Do you feel the same about splitters? If not, why?

Thanks in advance.

If you look at SP with 50 IP this year, there’s about 100 that throw changeups and only 33 grade above 100 on Stuff+. Compare that to 120 that throw sliders, and 87 above 100 on Stuff+.  There’s not as many splitter SP, but some with very good splitters like Gausman and Imanaga are below 100. Kremer has the lowest splitter Stuff+ and it’s been by outcomes one of his best pitches. 

Splitters are fantastic by whiff rates, they are just very hard to locate.  They can also be closer to platoon neutral than changeups. Changeups, unless yours is very good, should really only be used against opposite handed hitters - but in those matchups, they’re very valuable, because most of your other pitches are working against you. So it’s valuable, especially as a SP and particularly a lefty SP, to have a changeup you can locate out of the heart of the plate even if it’s not particularly nasty.

Basically I understand Stuff+ to put high value on spin rate but for sinkers, changeups and splitters, the spin rate isn’t as important. You want those to have vertical drop, not “rise,” so unless you’re throwing a change with a screwball motion, more spin isn’t necessarily as helpful. So Stuff+ is good for evaluating 4 seamers, cutters, sliders and curves, but IMO not so much for the rest. 

[Safelykept]

6 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

Maybe. And I was very underwhelmed by his lack of command, but it WAS only his third MLB start, and in  a Yankee Stadium debut, I'm sure the jitters were there. His command was lousy but many of his pitches were fairly close...I think he can be worked with because his curve has good movement. In no way am I comparing him to the great Koufax, but remember how bad Koufax was with walks when he began his career.From 1955 through 1960, he won 36 and lost 40, with 405 walks in 691 2/3 innings. His ERA over this period was 4.10.Again, he's light years away from Koufax...but command can be harnessed, at least for our sake, I hope so.

Yes, good points and maybe He was little Star Struck last night, not to mention weve won 2 out of 3 hes started, but he does need to get better

[maybenxtyr]

He's always had a history of walks and being wild, or lacking command. He definitely has the stuff to be an effective pitcher, and they are in a position to give him some time at the ML level. 

 

Suarez looks like a guy that would be more helpful in the pen at this point. Kremer will hopefully be back soon allowing them to move Suarez to the pen. 

[Too Tall]

As someone else said, last night was not pretty. But, the kid battled and did not wilt. If grit means anything, I hope he gets more chances. Three games. Two he didn't lose. His next start will be in Cleveland. That should be another good test in an arena unlike Yankee Stadium. Gut feeling - this kid is a warrier who will work hard to get better. Let's see what he can do at least the rest of this month.

[btdart20]

10 hours ago, Malike said:

 

What does "physics" represent?  Spin/movement I assume.  Velo?

[Just Regular]

He probably won't be as successful, but in one way Cade Povich is the same as Kyle Bradish, a $400-$500k college arm Elias negotiated for as a big piece in a trade.

It isn't impossible to imagine him and McDermott in a tandem throwing 80 straight breaking balls sometime this fall.    Sigbot has calculated it is the most efficient way to stop runs.

[Just Regular]

5 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

What does "physics" represent?  Spin/movement I assume.  Velo?

I think so.     The universe of spinning discs, and orbs crashing into each other.     Sorry, dinosaurs.     Thanks for the Chesapeake Bay though!

[CaptainRedbeard]

Povich now has a 1:1 K/BB. No matter how good he’s been at limiting contact, it goes without saying he needs dramatic improvement there. 

Way too many uncompetitive pitches. He’s not getting a lot of chases and his contact rate outside of the zone is high. 

However, importantly, his contact rate in-zone is not bad - it’s 85.4%, just below the 85.8% league average for SP.  It’s not like he’s getting clobbered when he throws strikes. Throw more of them!

The cutter usage is bafflingly low IMO. He threw a great one in on the hands to Volpe yesterday who lead off the game flaring it into CF for a single. He didn’t throw many at all after that.

[btdart20]

35 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I think so.     The universe of spinning discs, and orbs crashing into each other.     Sorry, dinosaurs.     Thanks for the Chesapeake Bay though!

If it includes velo, that could be (at least in part) why he graded lower there.

[baltfan]

I think Povich has the success that he has because there aren't a lot of guys like him anymore.  The velocity differences between his pitches seem to really screw with hitters and their ability to square him up.  We will see if he can keep it up.

[bpilktree]

His first 10 batters had 1 hit and 4 walks.  His last 10 hitters had 9 straight outs and walked the last guy before coming out.  So something to build on for sure.  

[lfallo1]

Really bizarre start that could've gotten outa hand - the near grand slam down LF line obviously would have changed things.  Love the awkward swings and weak contact the curveball was inducing, but lack of command early was painful to watch.  There's still enough good to go along with the "needs work" that I imagine we just send him out for another start.

[now]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

It isn't impossible to imagine him and McDermott in a tandem throwing 80 straight breaking balls sometime this fall.    Sigbot has calculated it is the most efficient way to stop runs.

Right, like who was it (Morton, McCullers??) that threw like 26 straight curves in the World Series a few years back? With good results. Just need some more of that elusive control/command to go along with the stuff!