The Elephant in the Room - The Red Sox

[Spakman]

Breslow wants to fire the manager and he gave him a roster so that he could. He wants to put his own guy in place and he can’t if they keep winning.

[bpilktree67]

15 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

The Red Sox winning the remainder of the season entirely hinges on whether Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford can continue putting up Cy Young like numbers. 

I'm not bullish on Houck keeping it up. In his last 7 starts he has an ERA nearly 4 with a FIP to boot. 

I'm also not bullish on Kutter continuing his numbers. I think he'll regress a little.

But all that said? I don't think they're going to fall off. They're a good, young team. 

They're 2nd best in R/G from their offense, and slightly above average with the pitching. That's a wild card team. 

Let's compare the 2 clubs:

• Offense
  • Orioles: 4.94 R/G
  • Red Sox: 4.69 R/G
• Pitching
  • Orioles: 4.10 R/G
  • Red Sox: 4.23 R/G
• Bullpen
  • Orioles: 3.83 ERA
  • Red Sox: 3.67 ERA
• Starting
  • Orioles: 3.63 ERA
  • Red Sox: 3.64 ERA

Keep in mind, those starting numbers include Bradish for quite a bit. Our SP numbers will most likely regress quite a bit. 

Either way, nothing changes for what the O's need: another starter, another reliever. 

Bradish pitched 39 of the 863 roughy 4% of the innings at 2.75 ERA He has made almost no difference on the team ERA numbers on the season.  

[LookitsPuck]

16 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

Bradish pitched 39 of the 863 roughy 4% of the innings at 2.75 ERA He has made almost no difference on the team ERA numbers on the season.  

It makes a difference later this year. It's more a point that going into the 2nd half relying on Kremer/Suarez/INSERTNAMEHERE are going to have those numbers go *up*. 

Another thing: that first half ERA for starting pitching includes Irvin when he was amazing and only a handful of innings when he was awful. 

[sportsfan8703]

8 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

It makes a difference later this year. It's more a point that going into the 2nd half relying on Kremer/Suarez/INSERTNAMEHERE are going to have those numbers go *up*. 

Another thing: that first half ERA for starting pitching includes Irvin when he was amazing and only a handful of innings when he was awful. 

Our 2nd half pitching is worrisome. We probably need two SP to win the division.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

9 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

It makes a difference later this year. It's more a point that going into the 2nd half relying on Kremer/Suarez/INSERTNAMEHERE are going to have those numbers go *up*. 

Another thing: that first half ERA for starting pitching includes Irvin when he was amazing and only a handful of innings when he was awful. 

I have to think Elias is going to trade for a solid #3 or better starting pitcher. Sure the team can probably make the playoffs as-is, but this team has aspirations of advancing in the postseason just getting there isn't enough this year.

I think ideally this team needs to add three pitchers with two of them being high leverage relievers.

[Just Regular]

Impending free agent Alex Cora is a fun scenario to watch.     I think there's maybe a little Major League vibe between that clubhouse and that front office.

Look at how all the best teams now are competing for a few top pitchers.      The Red Sox offloaded Chris Sale this winter.     He seems revived on a team more interested in winning.     It tells you what Breslow and his superiors expected this team to be.

Edited July 19 by Just Regular

[bpilktree67]

20 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

It makes a difference later this year. It's more a point that going into the 2nd half relying on Kremer/Suarez/INSERTNAMEHERE are going to have those numbers go *up*. 

Another thing: that first half ERA for starting pitching includes Irvin when he was amazing and only a handful of innings when he was awful. 

Our current 1-4 starters have an ERA of 3.27 so if they pitch like they have and you add another mid rotation starter. You should have about the same type numbers from the starting rotation.   I expect those top 4 to have a low to mid 3 ERA the 2nd half so getting a similar type ERA in 2nd half seems pretty doable to me.  Suarez ERA will most likely coming up but that should be offset by Kremer being a little better and GROd lowering his ERA.  

[TopGunnar]

1 hour ago, Spakman said:

Breslow wants to fire the manager and he gave him a roster so that he could. He wants to put his own guy in place and he can’t if they keep winning.

Fun fact. I’m actually friends with Craig Breslow. 

[SteveA]

6 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

They do have a 2014 Royals vibe. I wouldn't want to play them right now.

Will be interesting how they handle the trade deadline. 

Their bullpen isn't anywhere near the class of the 2014 Royals pen.

[SteveA]

8 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Their bullpen isn't anywhere near the class of the 2014 Royals pen.

Oops, looked it up and their pen is better than I thought.   That was an OTTOMH comment that I found to be wrong after looking at the actual numbers, and I retract it.

I still don't think it is as dominant as 2014 KC, but it has been very strong.

[Spakman]

18 minutes ago, TopGunnar said:

Fun fact. I’m actually friends with Craig Breslow. 

I don’t know what this means but fun fact I’m very close friends with your mom

[Bemorewins]

Red Sox are "the elephant in the room"... lol

It seems that some of you like seeing ghosts as much as @sportsfan8703 likes starting threads. lol

The Red Sox are a nice team. Nothing more nothing less.

As soon as we actually get another good starting pitcher (so we can stop giving series away) and start hitting again, they will be well behind us.

[sportsfan8703]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

Red Sox are "the elephant in the room"... lol

It seems that some of you like seeing ghosts as much as @sportsfan8703 likes starting threads. lol

The Red Sox are a nice team. Nothing more nothing less.

As soon as we actually get another good starting pitcher (so we can stop giving series away) and start hitting again, they will be well behind us.

They’re 4.5 GB. This post here is exactly the point of this post. They’re a team coming together. Don’t sleep on them. 

I don’t play the games. I don’t have to deny reality and act super confident. Just pointing out they’re 4.5 GB and have the best pitching in the division.  They also have 3 top 25 prospects. 

Elias can’t sit back and get Fuji, and Flaherty, this year and still win the division.  

[Orioles0615]

9-11 in the past 20 games. Red Sox could easily catch us

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

They’re 4.5 GB. This post here is exactly the point of this post. They’re a team coming together. Don’t sleep on them. 

I don’t play the games. I don’t have to deny reality and act super confident. Just pointing out they’re 4.5 GB and have the best pitching in the division.  They also have 3 top 25 prospects. 

Elias can’t sit back and get Fuji, and Flaherty, this year and still win the division.  

I agreed with the bolded. The rest not so much.

The only reason that they are 4.5 games back is because our pitching has been absolutely garbage for almost a month and our team hasn't hit very well in July.

I expect those two things to change soon. We are going to start hitting again. And Elias will make a move or two so that we won't have to continue to rely on several pitchers are frankly just aren't that good (i.e. Cole Irvin).

The Red Sox are by no means world beaters. I'm not going to act like they are just because we have been struggling for the last 25 games.