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AL playoff picture


eddie83

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Marcus Stroman joined Nestor Cortes and Cole Irvin with a Save as Clubs start putting to bed the 5-man rotation necessary for 162 and shift towards amoeba pitching staffs.

Albert Suarez looks tired to me.   There's nothing that can happen from here to undo the great success of his 2024, but I hope the hook is very fast if his next turn doesn't go all the way to being a pre-planned bullpen game.    

The Tigers somehow beat Cole Ragans in Kansas City on a Casey Mize day because you can't predict baseball - they have Skubal going for the road sweep in the finale

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On 9/15/2024 at 10:38 AM, gtman55 said:

I agree with this and totally feel like they often bring guys up and let them rot on the bench as opposed to letting them develop as big league hitters. Although regarding your list I wouldn't include Westburg or Cowser. 

Cowser and Westburg were both platooned for mediocre vets, so I definitely include them. Cowser and Westburg played more compared to Ortiz, Norby, Mayo, and Kjerstad, but all those young players: 

1. Didn't play every day when they were first called up (when all - except for Stowers - should have and could have)

2. Were benched/blocked more than they should have been in favor of mediocre/awful vets, which is the underlying developmental and roster management flaw that Elias and Hyde have caused and enforced

Edited by Brooks The Great
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On 9/15/2024 at 11:39 AM, eddie83 said:

You don’t take proven players out of a lineup so a kid can play. On a 70 win team you do that. Not with a contender. 
 

Can’t play everyone. 

Yes you can. When those "proven" players have proven that they are terrible hitters - as Eloy, Slater, and Rivera clearly are this season, and before them Jorge Mateo and Adam Frazier - you can absolutely play a rookie who's an elite prospect over them. 

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Just saw the SEA-NYY highlights from last night, and if you were opposing Luis Gil and he was wild to the tune of loading the bases on walks and a HBP and had run a 3-0 count 25 pitches deep in the 1st inning, is that the moment you would pick to try and steal home?

That's what Victor Robles did.      

A baseball game of "A lot to a little" quickly ensued.

Edited by Just Regular
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5 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Just saw the SEA-NYY highlights from last night, and if you were opposing Luis Gil and he was wild to the tune of loading the bases on walks and a HBP and had run a 3-0 count 25 pitches deep in the 1st inning, is that the moment you would pick to try and steal home?

That's what Victor Robles did.      

A baseball game of "A lot to a little" quickly ensued.

What surprised me about the clip was that Robles arguably "should" have made it. He was watching Gil the whole time, and if he started his dash like a half second earlier when Gil picked up the rosin bag, instead of right when he was about to drop it, it probably would have worked. 

Still, horrendous situational awareness. 

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Hopefully the deep and abiding friendship between Victor Robles and Justin Turner won't be too strained by the incident.

The Astros played a thrilling game out West last night too.

Now is kind of a digging in Zen moment because a lot of wonderful baseball is being played, and the Orioles still get to participate as best they can.

The Rangers 2024 results kind of make 2023 look like more of a blip, and the long term principle the Astros are the AL's best team until proven otherwise look more sound.     Sure, Corey Seager beat Alex Bregman in one Game 7 and had other good stuff happen so he could win that "Everybody said what was gonna happen...I guess we'll never know" exchange.

Now Bregman can say we know what happens if the Rangers lose 200 runs year over year, and wait to see if the Rubenstein budget lets the Orioles bid higher than Dana Brown.    Just in case, you know, Elias feels like Robinson Chirinos, Adam Frazier and Corbin Burnes' teaching "how to win" hasn't been enough.

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We now have the same magic number vs the Tigers and Twins at 6.  We have the tie breaker officially on the Twins because the best they can do is 3-3 vs us and then it goes to each teams record in their division which at the worst it can be another tie and then the intra division of your record vs the other teams division and compare those two which gives us a tie breaker on them.  The Twins have the harder schedule as well, so even though they have advantage over the Tigers we already have the advantage over them but not Tigers.  

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  • Posts

    • Great post.  I like your optimism, and I'll try to believe this team can turn things around just in the nick of time like some classic Hollywood baseball movie.
    • I think Elias has mostly done an excellent job with one exception -- he seems like he treats the bullpen like an afterthought.  I doubt that will happen again this coming offseason. I don't really blame him for the current offensive struggles overall.  Just too many injuries late in the season.  That said I don't understand how we went from dealing Austin Hays, Connor Norby and Ryan McKenna just so we could land the right handed bat of, gulp, Austin Slater.  
    • Man this team has no shot. Right now they may not even make it. 
    • Most of these guys are only playing because of injuries to starters.  But Austin Slater I'm guessing was brought in to replace the traded Austin Hays.  The problem is that Slater has shown little ability to hit lefties this year, after hitting them pretty well up to this season.  This must be why two teams dropped him before the O's picked him up.  I know he was let go much earlier in the season, but is Ryan McKenna actually worse than this guy?  I don't understand how the front office went from releasing McKenna to later trading Hays and Norby -- thinking their right handed bats could adequately be replaced by someone like Slater.  
    • I'm willing to give Elias some rope because of the strict limitations he was under with JA but he better not be so damn conservative again this year and let every serviceable FA out there sign with other teams while he's busy picking up reclamation projects again. Minus Burns of course.  
    • I agree completely that it’s irrelevant whether it worked.  But I don’t agree that bunting is clearly the right decision in either scenario, and I think that decision gets worse if it’s intended to be a straight sacrifice rather than a bunt for a hit. To be clear, the outcome you’re seeking in tonight’s situation, for example — sacrifice the runners over to 2nd/3rd — lowers both your run expectancy for the inning (from 1.44 to 1.39) and your win expectancy for the game (from 38.8% to 37.1%). It increases the likelihood of scoring one run, but it decreases the likelihood of scoring two runs (which you needed to tie) and certainly of scoring three or more runs (which you needed to take the lead).  And that’s if you succeed in getting them to 2nd/3rd. Research indicates that 15-30% of sacrifice bunt attempts fail, so you have to bake in a pretty significant percentage of the time that you’d just be giving up a free out (or even just two free strikes, as on Sunday). The bunt attempt in the 3rd inning on Sunday (which my gut hates more than if they’d done it today) actually is less damaging to the win probability — decreasing it only very slightly from 60.2% to 59.8%. More time left in the game to make up for giving up outs, I guess, and the scoreboard payoff is a bit better (in the sense that at least you’d have a better chance to take the lead).   At the bottom of it, these things mostly come down to gut and pure chance. The percentages are rarely overwhelming in either direction, and so sometimes even a “lower-percentage” play may work better under some circumstances. You would have bunted both times. I wouldn’t have bunted either time. Hyde bunted one time but not the other. I don’t know that anyone is an idiot (or even clearly “wrong”) for their preference. Either approach could have worked. Sadly, none of them actually did.
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