Orioles acquire Gregory Soto

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He got a little lucky last night. Line drive deep in the gap that Cowser flagged down with only a 55% catch probability, followed by a long fly ball right to the fence in CF.  Then a single before another fly out.  Not really a great outing despite a good result.  

55% catch probability means that ball in caught more times then not.

So other relievers don't have good defense behind them?   He kept them in the park and  he has been for 10 outings.

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

We have data from about 4 years that says Gregory Soto is a pretty ok, nothing special, reliever.  He walks too many, doesn't strike out a ton of guys, and gives up runs like a pretty average reliever.

Pretty ok enough to save 30 games in one season.

[RZNJ]

Just now, wildcard said:

Pretty ok enough to save 30 games in one season.

LOL.  Yep.  Pretty much any ok reliever can rack up 30 saves if you give them the closers job on a half way decent team.  That was 3-4 years ago but even then, besides the saves, what was so special about his numbers?

[Aristotelian]

15 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

LOL.  Yep.  Pretty much any ok reliever can rack up 30 saves if you give them the closers job on a half way decent team.  That was 3-4 years ago but even then, besides the saves, what was so special about his numbers?

Cionel Perez Career: ERA 3.65, ERA+ 113, K/BB 1.77, 0.4 WAR per season

Soto 2021: ERA 3.39, ERA+ 126, K/BB 1.90, 18 saves, 1.7 WAR

Soto 2022: ERA 3.28, ERA+ 119, K/BB 1.76, 30 saves, 0.1 WAR

I think 2021 is pretty clearly better. The 30 save season was just a tad better than Perez but imho pitching as a closer counts for something. 

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

44 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Pretty ok enough to save 30 games in one season.

And Kevin Gregg did that not once, not twice, but thrice.

He also finished his career with a 4.24 ERA and a WHIP of 1.39, both of which are actually better than Soto's career marks to this point (4.31 and 1.44).

[terpoh]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

We have data from about 4 years that says Gregory Soto is a pretty ok, nothing special, reliever.  He walks too many, doesn't strike out a ton of guys, and gives up runs like a pretty average reliever.

I havent looked it up, but how many guys in our bullpen have had 10 consecutive scoreless outings. He was a solid pickup for a pen that desperately needed help. I am not letting 2 blowup outings a month ago overshadow how he has looked otherwise. 

[Orioles0615]

4 hours ago, Sydnor said:

If someone posted this elsewhere, I apologize. I didn’t see it.

Ha like Elias would have ever called Johnson up with 16 innings in AAA

[terpoh]

5 minutes ago, terpoh said:

I havent looked it up, but how many guys in our bullpen have had 10 consecutive scoreless outings. He was a solid pickup for a pen that desperately needed help. I am not letting 2 blowup outings a month ago overshadow how he has looked otherwise. 

I did a quick look at this- looks like Webb had 10 scoreless outings in a row once, Cano did once and Kimbrel did twice. 

[wildcard]

12 minutes ago, terpoh said:

I did a quick look at this- looks like Webb had 10 scoreless outings in a row once, Cano did once and Kimbrel did twice. 

So three All-Stars at the top of their game and Webb.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

So three All-Stars at the top of their game and Webb.

I think he means this year, not any time in their career.  I guarantee you that Kimbrel has done it way more than twice in his career.  

[terpoh]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think he means this year, not any time in their career.  I guarantee you that Kimbrel has done it way more than twice in his career.  

Yes, this year. Was just curious as to how "Rare" going ten consecutive scoreless is for our 2024 team. Soto has settled in very nicely and was a big need for our team. If there were trades to be upset about, as of now, his was not one

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, terpoh said:

Yes, this year. Was just curious as to how "Rare" going ten consecutive scoreless is for our 2024 team. Soto has settled in very nicely and was a big need for our team. If there were trades to be upset about, as of now, his was not one

If we gave up two potential ML starters for a pretty standard bullpen arm then I’d say we heavily overpaid.    It may have been a need but he did stink for his first 3-4 appearances and has been kept mostly out of high leverage spots.   I don’t think he’s been an integral part of the bullpen although he has turned it around.    
 

Just because the player acquired fills a need doesn’t make it a good trade.

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

I wish we didn’t have to give Johnson and Chace. I think Johnson straight up for soto felt more appropriate. But I do think that Elias probably didn’t want to end up empty handed like last year, and dug deep for Rogers and Soto. And I don’t necessarily blame him. Just hate to trade two arms when we’ve struggle to develop them. 

[terpoh]

9 hours ago, RZNJ said:

If we gave up two potential ML starters for a pretty standard bullpen arm then I’d say we heavily overpaid.    It may have been a need but he did stink for his first 3-4 appearances and has been kept mostly out of high leverage spots.   I don’t think he’s been an integral part of the bullpen although he has turned it around.    
 

Just because the player acquired fills a need doesn’t make it a good trade.

Calling Moises Chace and Seth Johnson "potential ML Starters" means that you can pretty much call any minor league prospect the same. Nothing against them at all, they are both very talented, but They both have equally as much chance (and probably more) of NOT being long term ML starters. Neither was top 100, neither was one of our top 10, and neither is in the Phillies top 10 now. Does it suck to lose guys? Sure. But come on man, we have to trade people to get people. Elias gets called a "hoarder" for not trading guys, then gets lambasted for trading guys that are not any of our top guys. Nobody expects Gregory Soto to be prime Aroldis Chatman, but if he can be a reliable arm in the pen down the stretch and in the playoffs and in 2025 then how is that not a good trade? You dont need to "win" every trade for it to be a good trade. If Soto is good for us but Seth Johnson is good for philly, its a bad trade? Lets not forget we acquired Seth Johnson for far less. 

[RZNJ]

30 minutes ago, terpoh said:

Calling Moises Chace and Seth Johnson "potential ML Starters" means that you can pretty much call any minor league prospect the same. Nothing against them at all, they are both very talented, but They both have equally as much chance (and probably more) of NOT being long term ML starters. Neither was top 100, neither was one of our top 10, and neither is in the Phillies top 10 now. Does it suck to lose guys? Sure. But come on man, we have to trade people to get people. Elias gets called a "hoarder" for not trading guys, then gets lambasted for trading guys that are not any of our top guys. Nobody expects Gregory Soto to be prime Aroldis Chatman, but if he can be a reliable arm in the pen down the stretch and in the playoffs and in 2025 then how is that not a good trade? You dont need to "win" every trade for it to be a good trade. If Soto is good for us but Seth Johnson is good for philly, its a bad trade? Lets not forget we acquired Seth Johnson for far less. 

At the time of the trade, I’d agree with your description of Johnson and Chace.    It’s kind of scary how each was promoted and put up really good numbers (SSS) at the next level after the trade.  Each, are among the few pitching prospects we have in the upper minors that actually sit mid 90’s.

My fear is that in hindsight this trade is going to look a lot, lot worse than it did at the deadline.