Vance Honeycutt

[Baseball fandom]

1 minute ago, Jammer7 said:

Brecht is very physically talented, but with serious command issues. Again, we’ll see what comes of him. I would have applauded a high school arm in one of the first two picks. Caminiti would have been great. I doubt we’ll ever see Elias do that though. 

I often equate Brecht the pitching version to Honeycutt. 2 guys with very high ceilings but very high bust potential. Once you went for Honeycutt I would had said ok I'm rolling the dice on Brecht too.

[Jammer7]

30 minutes ago, Baseball fandom said:

That's a matter of opinion not aquete to say without a doubt 

It was the opinion of every analyst I read and heard. Not just mine. But hey, you do you. 

[Jammer7]

Just now, Baseball fandom said:

I often equate Brecht the pitching version to Honeycutt. 2 guys with very high ceilings but very high bust potential. Once you went for Honeycutt I would had said ok I'm rolling the dice on Brecht too.

They don’t have any track record of developing those kind of pitchers. I wanted him too. But the more I thought about it, the more I understood they played to their strengths with O’Farrell. 

[Baseball fandom]

6 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Brecht is very physically talented, but with serious command issues. Again, we’ll see what comes of him. I would have applauded a high school arm in one of the first two picks. Caminiti would have been great. I doubt we’ll ever see Elias do that though. 

But how is that any different then Honeycutt. Both needs fixing but worlds of potential. 

[Baseball fandom]

2 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

They don’t have any track record of developing those kind of pitchers. I wanted him too. But the more I thought about it, the more I understood they played to their strengths with O’Farrell. 

But how would we know. The Orioles under Elias has never taking a pitcher high enough with that potential to know. I'm concerned when you say they haven't been able to fix a guy with his imense potential. We hear about this so called Orioles Lab ok well let's see them go to work 

[Jammer7]

5 minutes ago, Baseball fandom said:

But how would we know. The Orioles under Elias has never taking a pitcher high enough with that potential to know. I'm concerned when you say they haven't been able to fix a guy with his imense potential. We hear about this so called Orioles Lab ok well let's see them go to work 

You make a fair point. I’m not saying you’re wrong at all. They just think it is too risky of an investment. With Honeycutt, they see a guy who can do so many things that he doesn’t need to be an .800 OPS guy to have great value. Mullins hasn’t really hit well since 2022, but he is still a valuable asset. 

On the positive side. This regime aided greatly in the development of Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall. Rodriguez did not have the command issues of DL Hall. Hall still struggles with command, sadly. They did help Bautista become “The Mountain.”

The Orioles look for traits that are undervalued and try to develop them. I’m not sure that philosophy is the way to go. I equate it trying to get Ferrari performance from a Hyundai chassis, but that is the whole analytical approach like Driveline and Tread.

It’s a value-based approach. What value does a pitcher have if they have TJ and miss two seasons? But we need pitchers, good ones. So, spend less on unproven assets, spend more on things that have a higher likelihood of developing in your system. Then trade from your depth. (Eflin was a good trade, Rodger’s…ugh)

I don’t know which approach is better. But this is their path. They stick to it. They are all in with what they believe in. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

You make a fair point. I’m not saying you’re wrong at all. They just think it is too risky of an investment. With Honeycutt, they see a guy who can do so many things that he doesn’t need to be an .800 OPS guy to have great value. Mullins hasn’t really hit well since 2022, but he is still a valuable asset. 

On the positive side. This regime aided greatly in the development of Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall. Rodriguez did not have the command issues of DL Hall. Hall still struggles with command, sadly. They did help Bautista become “The Mountain.”

The Orioles look for traits that are undervalued and try to develop them. I’m not sure that philosophy is the way to go. I equate it trying to get Ferrari performance from a Hyundai chassis, but that is the whole analytical approach like Driveline and Tread.

It’s a value-based approach. What value does a pitcher have if they have TJ and miss two seasons? But we need pitchers, good ones. So, spend less on unproven assets, spend more on things that have a higher likelihood of developing in your system. Then trade from your depth. (Eflin was a good trade, Rodger’s…ugh)

I don’t know which approach is better. But this is their path. They stick to it. They are all in with what they believe in. 

Did DL Hall develop under the current regime?

He seemed like the same guy when he left that he was when they got here.  Pretty darn close at any rate.

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

You make a fair point. I’m not saying you’re wrong at all. They just think it is too risky of an investment. With Honeycutt, they see a guy who can do so many things that he doesn’t need to be an .800 OPS guy to have great value. Mullins hasn’t really hit well since 2022, but he is still a valuable asset. 

On the positive side. This regime aided greatly in the development of Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall. Rodriguez did not have the command issues of DL Hall. Hall still struggles with command, sadly. They did help Bautista become “The Mountain.”

The Orioles look for traits that are undervalued and try to develop them. I’m not sure that philosophy is the way to go. I equate it trying to get Ferrari performance from a Hyundai chassis, but that is the whole analytical approach like Driveline and Tread.

It’s a value-based approach. What value does a pitcher have if they have TJ and miss two seasons? But we need pitchers, good ones. So, spend less on unproven assets, spend more on things that have a higher likelihood of developing in your system. Then trade from your depth. (Eflin was a good trade, Rodger’s…ugh)

I don’t know which approach is better. But this is their path. They stick to it. They are all in with what they believe in. 

I think this is largely the case for them selecting bats at an overwhelming clip in the higher rounds.  

Looking at @Tony-OH's most recent prospect power rankings, you're starting to see some pitchers crack the top 15 and some of the DSL kids making noise...most notably Morfe.  

I do think there's an element of "let your competitors make the mistakes" when it comes to drafting pitching in the high rounds and I'm wondering if he's banking on pitching success in the system coming from the DSL picks instead of the draft for whatever reason.  

I don't think he cares how he gets pitching talent into the system as long as he gets it, whereas we're sitting on this message board screaming at the top of our lungs for us to take pitchers in the draft.  The draft isn't the only way to get arms into the system...and while our system has definitely leaned towards hitters over the Elias regime, I'm looking forward to seeing if any of the arms make a leap into the top 10 of rankings this time next year and we suddenly have a gem or two on our hands that we weren't totally aware of on September 2nd, 2024.

But back to VH (I'm close to calling him Van Halen, or Van Honeycutt) I'm not sure how warranted this promotion is.  I understand the concerns with the swing and miss to his game, they are warranted.  As with any prospect, his first full season in the minors will be interesting to watch.  It'll be interesting to watch what they're having him do in the offseason, too.

[Jammer7]

52 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think this is largely the case for them selecting bats at an overwhelming clip in the higher rounds.  

Looking at @Tony-OH's most recent prospect power rankings, you're starting to see some pitchers crack the top 15 and some of the DSL kids making noise...most notably Morfe.  

I do think there's an element of "let your competitors make the mistakes" when it comes to drafting pitching in the high rounds and I'm wondering if he's banking on pitching success in the system coming from the DSL picks instead of the draft for whatever reason.  

I don't think he cares how he gets pitching talent into the system as long as he gets it, whereas we're sitting on this message board screaming at the top of our lungs for us to take pitchers in the draft.  The draft isn't the only way to get arms into the system...and while our system has definitely leaned towards hitters over the Elias regime, I'm looking forward to seeing if any of the arms make a leap into the top 10 of rankings this time next year and we suddenly have a gem or two on our hands that we weren't totally aware of on September 2nd, 2024.

But back to VH (I'm close to calling him Van Halen, or Van Honeycutt) I'm not sure how warranted this promotion is.  I understand the concerns with the swing and miss to his game, they are warranted.  As with any prospect, his first full season in the minors will be interesting to watch.  It'll be interesting to watch what they're having him do in the offseason, too.

I think you are correct. It seems clear that they can pick up cheaper arm talent in the international market of DR and Venezuela. The Astros did it, and I think this is where they are going to get the most value on a consistent basis. 

That is not to say they may not take a chance on higher round talent in the years to come. I think they want to deal from a position of relative strength. Once the international talent begins to really develop, I can see them cherry-picking a higher round arm here and there. They will be able to afford an occasional gamble like that as things get diversified. 

We all want a much more well-rounded system. However, from a value-based investment perspective, can we really find fault with what they have done with their draft capital,  philosophically anyway? They can certainly execute better as Tony has said. There will be misses either way. But basing their evaluations on guys that have two or three additional years of data and maturity seems to mitigate a lot of risk.

Van Honeycutt!!!  

[RZNJ]

5 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

To Tony’s point, do we actually develop boom or bust pitchers well? Picking Honeycutt went to our strength as a system. 

I don’t know.   What boom or bust pitcher have we ever drafted?    What boom or bust hitter have we successfully developed?

[RZNJ]

5 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

Yes, of course the other teams passed on him. The guy tool is raw as you posted. That said, the Orioles are regarded in the industry as an excellent hitter development staff. So, if the hit tool was a “50,” many analysts said he’d have likely been a top 10 pick. Maybe even in the conversation at 1-1. So, it’s a risky pick, sure. But the potential payoff is immense. There was no other position player with the tools of Honeycutt. Every analysis I have read said so anyway. His swing and miss concerns are rough, but so is Brecht’s command issues. 

Aaron Judge comes to mind with hit tool concerns. Certainly not the same swing and miss concerns, but quality of contact issues.

We do not know what we have yet. Why so pessimistic? I thought you were fairly positive about him. I guess I was wrong. I know you wanted Brecht over Farrell. 

Once they drafted Honeycutt, I was hopeful.   That’s about it.   Before the draft I went over all of the reasons why I didn’t want him, which include the fact that his freshman and junior years are nearly identical, statistically, which shows me a guy who made very little progress,in 3 years.    If he hits, great pick.   I said he was a tease, because you can dream on everything coming together but it’s a longshot that everything will come together.   It’s more dream than anything else.

He struck out 29% as a freshman.   He struck out 27.4% as a junior.     I don’t see that as progress.  Now, maybe the Orioles really do have magic pixie hitters dust but it didn’t seem to work on Zach Watson, Mac Horvath, or Jud Fabian who all have similar profiles to Honeycutt as toolsy outfielders with hit/contact concerns.

As to the pitchers, how many mid to high 90’s pitchers with Brecht’s stuff and control issues have the Orioles even drafted?   I think the answer is zero.   They seem to like to take guys in later rounds who had all kinds of issues in college and turn them into something.    Why not Brecht?   I guess we’ll find out.

   As I said my first choice was top HS on the board.  The Dodgers drafted next after us and took Kellon Lindsay, a speedy SS who might develop power.     I’ll root for Honeycutt to be great but my uneasy feeling is that we’re looking at Fabian II or worse.
 

 

[Jim'sKid26]

10 hours ago, Baseball fandom said:

I often equate Brecht the pitching version to Honeycutt. 2 guys with very high ceilings but very high bust potential. Once you went for Honeycutt I would had said ok I'm rolling the dice on Brecht too.

Interesting analogy. I would disagree only in that Brecht has a much higher chance of injury. This makes Honeycutt a much safer pick. It is also possible that the O's evaluators see the speed and defensive prowess as allowing Honeycutt to have the floor of a 4th-5th OF. 

[RZNJ]

11 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

It was the opinion of every analyst I read and heard. Not just mine. But hey, you do you. 

Keith Law had Honeycutt at #41 on his board.

[DocJJ]

Here's what Chatgpt says:

Improving a hitter with a high strikeout rate is possible, though it can be challenging and depends on the underlying causes of the strikeouts. It’s not necessarily futile; many players have successfully reduced their strikeout rates with targeted adjustments and coaching.

Key Approaches to Improve a Hitter with a High Strikeout Rate:

1. Improving Plate Discipline:

   • Training hitters to recognize pitches earlier can help them avoid swinging at pitches outside the strike zone. This can involve drills that focus on tracking pitches, using pitch recognition software, or working with coaches on understanding counts and situations. Hitters with good plate discipline swing at more hittable pitches, leading to fewer strikeouts and more productive at-bats.

2. Adjusting Swing Mechanics:

   • Often, a high strikeout rate can be linked to mechanical flaws, such as a long swing or improper weight transfer. Coaches can work with hitters to shorten their swings, optimize bat paths, or make other mechanical adjustments that improve their ability to make contact with the ball.

3. Improving Timing and Reaction:

   • Hitters with high strikeout rates might struggle with timing, especially against high-velocity pitchers or off-speed pitches. Training can focus on drills that enhance reaction time, such as machine work, facing live pitching, or using visual cues to improve anticipation and response.

4. Mental Approach and Confidence:

   • The mental side of hitting is critical. High strikeout rates can lead to a lack of confidence and overthinking at the plate. Working with sports psychologists, practicing mindfulness techniques, or engaging in visualization exercises can help hitters stay focused and relaxed, improving their performance.

5. Identifying Pitch Tendencies and Adjusting Strategy:

   • Understanding opposing pitchers’ tendencies can help hitters anticipate pitch sequences. Advanced scouting reports and video analysis can help hitters prepare for what types of pitches they are likely to see and adjust their approach accordingly.

Examples of Success:

Several MLB players have reduced their strikeout rates and improved their performance over time. For example, Joey Votto significantly cut down his strikeouts through adjustments to his plate approach and swing mechanics. J.D. Martinez also improved his contact rates by refining his swing and focusing on a more disciplined approach.

Conclusion:

Improving a hitter with a high strikeout rate is challenging but far from futile. It requires a combination of mechanical adjustments, mental training, plate discipline, and strategic preparation. While not all players will see dramatic improvements, many can reduce their strikeout rates with the right support and dedication to refining their craft.

[Sports Guy]

It’s ironic how certain posters will bash you for questioning Elias draft picks while turning around and doing the same thing.