Donta Williams release and why Elias needs to adjust his draft philosophy

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, ChosenOne21 said:

I basically agree with the OP, but doesn't everyone miss on most college position player talent after round 2? Is Elias especially bad at this? Wouldn't shock me if he was actually above average.

It seems like he's relying on the Latin America pipeline to get pitching. You can get a lot more players for less money. He's always taken the shotgun approach to pitching, and I think you get more pellets to fire in Latin America.

All that said, he really needs to draft more pitching in the first five rounds.

Why don't all the teams just do that if it's so much better?

Are they stupid?

[Just Regular]

I think Burnes, Eflin and Rogers this year are evidence Elias at least isn't ending up getting really squeezed on his excess bats.

One of the MLB Network guys forecasting after Burnes in 2025 already made the joke they'll just trade for Sandy Alcantara.    Maybe Shane McClanahan the year after that.

Take your pick between EBJ or Honeycutt, but the other eight guys look set for basically forever.    Entering the year I thought Beavers had a shot to outplay one of Kjerstad or Cowser but 2024 is making him look like the laggard in that group.

Beavers, Fabian, Aron Estrada, Thomas Sosa, the UVA guys...good luck.

[eddie83]

3 minutes ago, casadeozo said:

I created a thread about this subject last week but it bears repeating, I wish anyone in the press would have asked Elias about this strategy. He's now 6 years into this with no pitchers drafted high. 

The concern is if you are counting on the  international pitching pipeline to producer your starting pitching, thats years away while actively eating through the service time of the existing drafted position player pool.

The strategy has set the team up for a long run of winning. Plus they have Mayo and Basallo. 
 

Adley thru 2027

Gunnar 28

Westburg 29

Cowser 29

Holliday 30

Kjerstad 30

Basallo ??

Mayo??

 

Pitching

Grayson 29

Bradish 28 

 

[eddie83]

They need to hit on rounds 4/5 and lower for pen arms. Plus like everyone else get someone from elsewhere and tweak them. 

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

1.  I agree we need to draft better overall

2. We traded mostly mid level prospects.   Mayo, Kjerstad, and Basallo are still 3 of the best trade chips in baseball.

3. Not sure the grow bats/acquire pitching hasn’t worked.   It has.  The proof is in black and white.   The question is where do we go from here?

Let's pull this string a little here. 

Outside of the 1st round, what college bats have worked out?

Ortiz? Yep, absolutely, that 2019 draft was outstanding and he was one of those guys that remade himself over COVID and added the strength that he needed. Stowers was a 2019 2nd rounder and he along with 2021 2nd rounder Connor Norby got Elias Trevor Rogers, so we'll call them wins even though combined they've put up -0.7 rWAR in their major league careers.

Horvath (2nd round 2023) and Etzel (10th round 2023) helped get Eflin but I'm guessing Baumeister was the main prospect Tampa wanted in that trade. 

Drafting is not an exact science, but people seem to have the misconception that Elias/Sig are fantastic drafters and I'd say outside of the 1st round, I don't see them as any better and actually behind many other teams overall. 

I haven't done the research, but I can't imagine there are many teams that have not drafted and developed one single pitcher since 2019. 

But let's say the strategy has worked so far since both Burnes (1 yr) and Eflin (1 and half yrs) were acquired for mostly minor leaguers, but let's remember pitchers were part of those trades so they did have to give up pitching to get pitching. So they were not pure bats for pitching trade.

So the college bat philosophy (after the 1st round) has bought the team one TOR for one season, Eflin for this year and next, and a 5th starter with Rogers for two and half years. 

Now maybe drafting arms would not have worked out. Maybe Elias knows they are not good at selecting college pitchers so he doesn't see much difference in a 2nd-5th round selection and an after 5th round selection so he figures he can wait. 

The problem is the college bats guys with value have dried up after the trades this year (not counting the 2024 guys). Maybe Bradfield will gain some value by hitting in AA the rest of the year or maybe Beavers will turn around his poor season. Maybe Fabian will learn to hit right-handed pitching or hit breaking balls? 

I just think he's got to switch up philosophy a bit. Now saying that, he did a bit by drafting 4 HS hitters (6th, 12th, 16th, 29th rounds) which I think were the first signable HS hitters he's taken outside of the first round since 2021 (Creed Willems, 8th round, $1 million over slot). 

But as for it working, the Orioles have won exactly zero playoff games to date so let's not build the celebration parade quite yet. I think what we can say is that going with college bats in the 1st round has worked, but really, Elias is yet to miss on a 1st round picks (Not counting Bradfield as it's too early and Beavers was a supplemental 33rd overall pick which is really a 2nd round pick) whether they were highschool or college. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Explosivo]

43 minutes ago, HowAboutThat said:

If I understand this point correctly, you’re saying that it’s more important to draft players with a higher chance of turning into trade assets, than high risk/reward pitchers?

 No one disagrees with that, but in order for it to work, the picks that ARE made have to turn into assets, and that’s not happening with the necessary frequency.

Its a poor strategy to just plan on spending millions to compensate for a draft strategy that doesn’t work out.

So you cherry pick on that didn’t work? The axe to grind on yall is absurd.

[Aristotelian]

I am not a draft guru but my two cents on the overall strategy:

Overall value is more important than balance because you can fill holes via trade and free agency. If we hit consistently on hitters, that is preferable to balanced but mediocre talent. The draft is an important source of talent but not the only one. 

Elias's track record for overall value is good, especially the 2019-21 drafts and Holliday. The 2019 draft was an absolute franchise changing draft.  

We don't have a pitching pipeline and it is Elias's responsibility to fix it. 

Is there a team (or multiple teams) with a better track record of drafting for both value and balance? If so, then it would be fair to expect Elias to draft both. If not, let's see how it plays out. 

 

[Explosivo]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I am not a draft guru but my two cents on the overall strategy:

Overall value is more important than balance because you can fill holes via trade and free agency. If we hit consistently on hitters, that is preferable to balanced but mediocre talent. The draft is an important source of talent but not the only one. 

Elias's track record for overall value is good, especially the 2019-21 drafts and Holliday. The 2019 draft was an absolute franchise changing draft.  

We don't have a pitching pipeline and it is Elias's responsibility to fix it. 

Is there a team (or multiple teams) with a better track record of drafting for both value and balance? If so, then it would be fair to expect Elias to draft both. If not, let's see how it plays out. 

 

Thank you. 

[Jagwar]

@Tony-OH thanks for your detailed info. 

I'm not so knowledgeable about drafts and ceilings and floors. But I'm savvy enough to know that the minor league cupboard is filled with pitchers who seem more likely to be "miss" than "hit".  I believed that before the deadline, and I believe it more strongly now. There is not a single pitcher in our system that makes me think "I can't wait to get him on the big league roster". 

I know it's probably not a reasonable plan, but I'd like to see Elias & Co draft nothing but pitchers, and sign nothing but international pitchers, for the next 12 months. 

[Sports Guy]

The thing is, the system is getting light fast. There are certainly some intriguing guys but most of them are far away.

Some of this worry over pitching goes away if Elias wants to sign guys and ownership is good with it but we definitely can’t keep relying on trading positional talent to get pitching. It has worked and that’s great but unless you are picking up bad contracts or something like that, you are going to struggle to get much quality.

Now, I do think we move Kjerstad in the offseason. I just don’t see him fitting on this team with their emphasis on defense.

[casadeozo]

36 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

The strategy has set the team up for a long run of winning. Plus they have Mayo and Basallo. 
 

Adley thru 2027

Gunnar 28

Westburg 29

Cowser 29

Holliday 30

Kjerstad 30

Basallo ??

Mayo??

 

Pitching

Grayson 29

Bradish 28 

 

I would argue this proves the counter to your point and proves Tony’s argument precisely.

theres also no guarantee Bradish returns to being he same pitcher he was in 2023. The need pitching depth in the worst way.

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, casadeozo said:

I would argue this proves the counter to your point and proves Tony’s argument precisely.

theres also no guarantee Bradish returns to being he same pitcher he was in 2023. The need pitching depth in the worst way.

How? Look at Seattle. Elite SP and may not even make the playoffs this year. The core of this lineup is set for the rest of the decade. If the owner steps up maybe longer. It’s proven you can’t win in the regular season without bats. 
 

If Bradish is no lock to being the same pitcher why would you think high draft picks would be? What’s the rate of TJ surgery’s now? Look at Manoah? He is a success? How would you define him? Pitching is so fickle right now. Such a high risk/reward. How many “good” SP’s are there in the entire sport? 
 

I’m not arguing that the pitching depth is good, it’s not. I’m saying his philosophy has worked. I’m also saying that if you look around the sport I would bet it’s under 50% of pitchers who are with their original team, bullpen probably higher. Position played clearly are aging faster than years ago. Pitchers are all over the map. Some fade in and out of effectiveness. Guys are finding success later on and over 30 year old. You don’t see that often at all with bats. You are much more likely to find an effective relief arm who is 32 and on his 4th team than a 28 year old position player who hasn’t worked out. 
 

Clearly it would be nice to hit on some internal picks for depth. I’m not arguing that. 

[Jagwar]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The thing is, the system is getting light fast. There are certainly some intriguing guys but most of them are far away.

Some of this worry over pitching goes away if Elias wants to sign guys and ownership is good with it but we definitely can’t keep relying on trading positional talent to get pitching. It has worked and that’s great but unless you are picking up bad contracts or something like that, you are going to struggle to get much quality.

Now, I do think we move Kjerstad in the offseason. I just don’t see him fitting on this team with their emphasis on defense.

What do you think is more likely? That the O's hold on to Kjerstad, or they pay market value to extend Santander?

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

What do you think is more likely? That the O's hold on to Kjerstad, or they pay market value to extend Santander?

Depends on what market value is 

[Jagwar]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Depends on what market value is 

Would a Kjerstad trade and a Santander signing be related?