Arbruester and moving guys to relief

[Jim'sKid26]

17 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Yeah, those are some good points. I do think their emphasis on bringing on coaches that understand the technology and data over guys that have experience teaching pitching could be an issue. 

I don't see a lot of pitchers throwing to all quadrants of the strike zone, changing speeds, knowing when to pitch to contact and when to go for that strike out. I also think they are throwing too many different pitches, which does not allow to them "master" a few that may make them successful at higher levels. 

When I hear of a pitcher in A ball with 5 pitches, then I see them and I'm like, you have two pitches, and three crap offerings. Now, I understand development and sometimes guys need to throw "crap offerings" to try and improve them. So I'm thinking you go with the main two pitches and use that one development pitch, maybe two at most to improve.

Some guys you just look at when they get tired, their delivery, and the fact they have the makings of a two or three pitch reliever and you should take that and develop them as such. At least that's what I would do once they reach AA, and especially once they reach AAA or 25-26 years old.

Your point about throwing to all 4 quadrants of the plate is spot on. Part of pitching is understanding hitting and what hitters are trying to do. Learning to read a batter and identify where he has holes in his swing. Then being able to throw pitches that exploit those weaknesses. If you cannot command the strike zone and hit your spots, you cannot exploit a hitter's weaknesses. If the primary focus is velocity and spin, easily measured Rhapsodo or trackman, the nuisance of setting up a hitter to exploit a particular weakness is overlooked.  Just my $0.02...

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Your point about throwing to all 4 quadrants of the plate is spot on. Part of pitching is understanding hitting and what hitters are trying to do. Learning to read a batter and identify where he has holes in his swing. Then being able to throw pitches that exploit those weaknesses. If you cannot command the strike zone and hit your spots, you cannot exploit a hitter's weaknesses. If the primary focus is velocity and spin, easily measured Rhapsodo or trackman, the nuisance of setting up a hitter to exploit a particular weakness is overlooked.  Just my $0.02...

I agree whole heartily. The Orioles have a ton of high velocity guys in the minor leagues, but it's rare to find the pitchers. Having technology and data can be great tools, but they are tools, not the be all end all. 

I can show you pitcher after pitcher with great movement, but bad numbers because they can't command the baseball. Sure, they will get their share of whiffs and Ks when they do, but the consistency is not there with a lot of these guys.

Even in the majors, I've seen pitch movements of pitchers on statcast with a ton of red showing plus movement, but then you go look at the results and they're not good.

Pitch movement and velocity are certainly great factors in having success, but command is the piece that must be mixed in and that is part of my issue with the guys the Orioles draft with these high ERAs and bad walk numbers in college. There's a reason these guys were not great against college hitters, and most of it is because of a lack of consistency.

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

The Orioles certainly wait a long time to convert SP to RP. Most recently, they waited a very long time with Baumann. In their defense for Baumann, in retrospect it’s clear that Baumann needed further command improvement to be viable in any role. Perhaps the theory is just that, at any age, pitchers will develop their command better working as SP and pitching more often, and they view Armbruester the same way.

IMO the pitcher they’ve done the worst by in this way is Bruce Zimmermann. Zimmermann simply doesn’t have the fastball to be a MLB SP. But his other offerings are good and he has good command of them, so I could see him being a solid RP that throws <25% fastballs, particularly if he can throw a tick or two harder as a RP. He did exactly that in his small sample as a MLB RP in 2023 and was effective. He was never going to benefit further in development from working as a SP. 

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

The Orioles certainly wait a long time to convert SP to RP. Most recently, they waited a very long time with Baumann. In their defense for Baumann, in retrospect it’s clear that Baumann needed further command improvement to be viable in any role. Perhaps the theory is just that, at any age, pitchers will develop their command better working as SP and pitching more often, and they view Armbruester the same way.

IMO the pitcher they’ve done the worst by in this way is Bruce Zimmermann. Zimmermann simply doesn’t have the fastball to be a MLB SP. But his other offerings are good and he has good command of them, so I could see him being a solid RP that throws <25% fastballs, particularly if he can throw a tick or two harder as a RP. He did exactly that in his small sample as a MLB RP in 2023 and was effective. He was never going to benefit further in development from working as a SP. 

Seems that maybe the Orioles have finally decided to give Zimmermann a real look in the pen with his last 6 appearances being two innings or less. He hasn't been great, but he was holding batters to a .265/.316/.471/.786 slash line over those six appearances. 

Unfortunatly, he has seen no velocity bump moving to the pen. Here's his number from his 1 innings outing last night that he struck out two in one inning of work.

He did though have a 57% whiff rate on the 7 swings he garnered. He was pitching off his curveball in some of his starts earlier in the year and looks to have ditched his 4-seamer that was just pretty terrible.

Looks like they are trying to get him to be Vespi-like and usable in that way.

[CaptainRedbeard]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Seems that maybe the Orioles have finally decided to give Zimmermann a real look in the pen with his last 6 appearances being two innings or less. He hasn't been great, but he was holding batters to a .265/.316/.471/.786 slash line over those six appearances. 

Unfortunatly, he has seen no velocity bump moving to the pen. Here's his number from his 1 innings outing last night that he struck out two in one inning of work.

He did though have a 57% whiff rate on the 7 swings he garnered. He was pitching off his curveball in some of his starts earlier in the year and looks to have ditched his 4-seamer that was just pretty terrible.

Looks like they are trying to get him to be Vespi-like and usable in that way.

Yup I had noticed that - great for Zimmermann I suppose, but not really at all helpful for the Orioles now that he’s out of options. Hopefully he can catch on somewhere that will give him a real shot as a RP. 

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I agree whole heartily. The Orioles have a ton of high velocity guys in the minor leagues, but it's rare to find the pitchers. Having technology and data can be great tools, but they are tools, not the be all end all. 

I can show you pitcher after pitcher with great movement, but bad numbers because they can't command the baseball. Sure, they will get their share of whiffs and Ks when they do, but the consistency is not there with a lot of these guys.

Even in the majors, I've seen pitch movements of pitchers on statcast with a ton of red showing plus movement, but then you go look at the results and they're not good.

Pitch movement and velocity are certainly great factors in having success, but command is the piece that must be mixed in and that is part of my issue with the guys the Orioles draft with these high ERAs and bad walk numbers in college. There's a reason these guys were not great against college hitters, and most of it is because of a lack of consistency.

 

I think this and your previous post make really good points.  It’s one thing to teach a guy how to throw and shape pitches and maximize velocity and/or spin, and it’s another thing to teach him how to pitch.  Now, you could argue that pitchers need to develop their stuff before worrying about the nuances of pitching, but I tend to think these should be simultaneous developmental tracks.  

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think this and your previous post make really good points.  It’s one thing to teach a guy how to throw and shape pitches and maximize velocity and/or spin, and it’s another thing to teach him how to pitch.  Now, you could argue that pitchers need to develop their stuff before worrying about the nuances of pitching, but I tend to think these should be simultaneous developmental tracks.  

I was always taught to look for guys who can pitch to quadrants, change speeds, and change batter eye levels. This was one of the reasons i like Zach Davies much more than the Orioles brass at the time did. Davies was small, built like the clubhouse kid, but he could do all of those things. Sure, when he didn't he got hit, and he was never going to put up gaudy K numbers, but he was a pitcher. 

That was what Joe Jordan saw when he gave him overslot to sign and that's what he was in the minors and then the majors.

Now we see a lot of the same types of pitchers. Everyone is getting guys out with 4-seamers up hi, even with 93-95 MPH fastballs in the minors. Then they get minor league hitters to chase breaking balls low and away or throw changeups out of the zone that get chase.

Now, all of that is a good start, but you need to be able to throw quality strikes with the same pitches because upper level, and especially major league hitters, can adjust to what you are throwing with advanced scouting reports and their ability to pick up pitches better than minor league hitters. 

This is why I don't too excited over pitchers until they get to AA and really, AAA. In AAA, you get a lot of guys who have been in the majors so it gets tougher to get guys to chase. You may get a whiff, then try it again and they hold off. Once they determine you can't throw that change for strikes, they don't swing at it anymore.

AA and lower hitters typically can be gotten out with the same pitch and the lower you go, the worse they are at picking up pitches early. 

 

[sportsfan8703]

I think it's a situation where they know his floor is a 6th inning up/down guy, but they're trying to tap into that #4/#5 SP ceiling that he showed last night.    Even #4/#5 SP types are so expensive.  See what we had to pay for Irvin and Rogers.  Plus, consider the FA bucks that Lyles, and Gibson, cost.  I also think they feel like they can pick up fungible arms like Burch Smith, Baker, Vespi, Bowman, Stoutd, Anderson, etc..., off of waivers.  Like with Webb and Coloumbe in the past.  

While it's frustrating for the individual pitcher, and what is more of a possible outcome, I think they're just throwing as many darts at developing SP as possible.  It's easy to see that Ambruester has struggled, but it's outings like tonight that probably reinforce that they are doing the right thing by keeping on to trot him out like that.  

Edited August 28 by sportsfan8703

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

So you think Armbruester is a starter? 

I don’t know.  I doubt it.   Maybe the Orioles think so.   What do you think their motivation is for keeping him at starter?    He’s been mostly terrible this year.   His ERA went down to 7.98.   I can’t believe they didn’t pull him from the rotation long ago.

[Tony-OH]

26 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think it's a situation where they know his floor is a 6th inning up/down guy, but they're trying to tap into that #4/#5 SP ceiling that he showed last night.    Even #4/#5 SP types are so expensive.  See what we had to pay for Irvin and Rogers.  Plus, consider the FA bucks that Lyles, and Gibson, cost.  I also think they feel like they can pick up fungible arms like Burch Smith, Baker, Vespi, Bowman, Stoutd, Anderson, etc..., off of waivers.  Like with Webb and Coloumbe in the past.  

While it's frustrating for the individual pitcher, and what is more of a possible outcome, I think they're just throwing as many darts at developing SP as possible.  It's easy to see that Ambruester has struggled, but it's outings like tonight that probably reinforce that they are doing the right thing by keeping on to trot him out like that.  

The floor is not a 6t inning guy, the floor is a AAA pitcher. At some point you have to make an analytical call based on the information at hand. When a pitcher is about to 26, with over 300 innings of professional ball, that seems like enough information to make a judgement call. 

They could always move him back if he suddenly develops something. One start should not reinforce anything.

[Rbiggs2525]

I agree with Tony wholeheartedly in this conversation. The problem with converting mid season is you don’t always see a bump in velo. The Orioles had to shut DL Hall down last year for 60 days and put him in the weight room to get his velocity back. You saw last night with Bowman. A funky delivery and a couple decent pitches goes a long way in relief role. 

[emmett16]

When I think about this my mind goes to asset management.  A RP has very limited value and a SP has a ton.  RP pitchers are a dime a dozen and can be picked up easily in a variety of ways.  But the RP is always going to have exponentially less value.  I feel like they are putting all their dev guys into  SP rolls with the hopes a small % click and they worry about picking up RP from other avenues.  I think it’s less about the baseball and more about building maximum player value out of all the players in the system.  IE iF they hit on 1 out of 20 guys as a SP that will be worth more than hitting on 4 out of 20 RPs (completely random #s).  I guess what I’m saying is I think they look at the whole group and how to build value vs. the individual player and how to maximize their potential.  I don’t know that I agree with the approach.  It sure hasn’t worked out well so far. 
 

Not sure if I explained myself well above. 

[Tony-OH]

35 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I don’t know.  I doubt it.   Maybe the Orioles think so.   What do you think their motivation is for keeping him at starter?    He’s been mostly terrible this year.   His ERA went down to 7.98.   I can’t believe they didn’t pull him from the rotation long ago.

I've longed stop trying to figure out how the Orioles develop pitching and just try to follow them. My guess is they don't believe it is a skill to learn how to warm up quickly, not have a set routine, and pitch on less days rest or even back to back days.

At this point, it's clear they have their thoughts on how to evaluate, draft, and develop pitching, and damned if a lack of results is going to get in the way of what the data tells them.

[LookitsPuck]

Think it’s more a function of them trialing things as a starter to eliminate whether they envision him as one going forward before converting to reliever. It took the Orioles years to do the same with Akin, Britton, Matusz, even Jim Johnson. The list can go on. But think this is the conservative approach that a lot of orgs take. A lot easier to convert to reliever than the other way around. 

Folks here were clamoring for McDermott to be a reliever. They appear to still think he’s a starter (injuries aside). 

All that aside, I am interested to see a scenario where this happens under the Elias admin. That’s the side effect of not drafting pitchers highly. You’re putting the risk on other orgs. Although, Akin is the first case of them converting a starter to reliever in the majors that I’m aware of. Even Tyler Wells was a starter before getting hurt/Rule V. But neither of those guys were drafted under Elias.

Edited August 28 by LookitsPuck

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

When I think about this my mind goes to asset management.  A RP has very limited value and a SP has a ton.  RP pitchers are a dime a dozen and can be picked up easily in a variety of ways.  But the RP is always going to have exponentially less value.  I feel like they are putting all their dev guys into  SP rolls with the hopes a small % click and they worry about picking up RP from other avenues.  I think it’s less about the baseball and more about building maximum player value out of all the players in the system.  IE iF they hit on 1 out of 20 guys as a SP that will be worth more than hitting on 4 out of 20 RPs (completely random #s).  I guess what I’m saying is I think they look at the whole group and how to build value vs. the individual player and how to maximize their potential.  I don’t know that I agree with the approach.  It sure hasn’t worked out well so far. 
 

Not sure if I explained myself well above. 

They've hit on 0 out of what, 70+ guys that they've drafted or signed and brought into the system from the amateur ranks? 

I think we all understand that a starting pitcher has more value, but a SS has more value than a 1B, but you don't play Mountcastle there because he's not good enough to be one. 

All I'm saying is that at some point, whether it's by age or amount of innings, if a pitcher does not look like a viable option as a starting pitcher, you should try them in relief and see if it plays there. Of course you give them a shot initially to see if they can develop, but future big league starter's tend to stick out pretty early. I'm sure we can find some late bloomers, but I imagine they are the exception to the rule, and I'd wager some of the late bloomers were relievers in the majors and then given another shot were able to start.

Now, if a guy is throwing 90-92 from the right side, there's not much upside in trying him in relief since we just don't see that anymore unless they are throwing from a weird low side-arm or submarine angle. 

Big guys who can touch the mid-90s as starters are guy that might be able to stick in a pen role if they fail as starter's. MIGHT of course being a the key word.