O’s look done

[Osornot]

6 hours ago, rudyrooster said:

I don't post my opinion very often here on the Hangout.  I'm a diehard (since 1968) bury me wearing my #8 Orioles jersey and 8x10 glossy of Brooksie fanatic.  Just so you know where I'm coming from.  Bright days are ahead for this franchise, but right now it's terribly frustrating for all of us.  Let's just hope we can "hang on" and make the playoffs.  Then we'll see how the dice roll.

Exactly.... plus, getting some pitching, etc. back you just never know - we know the talent and track record is there.  Maybe my expectations are too low but, if they make the playoffs and lose, it is a repeat from last year.  Not good, but what this team has been through...

[sevastras]

Just now, terpoh said:

Because it has become more than a "good team slumping." We are going on 80 games (half a season) of under .500 ball. We are starting a combination of guys named Eloy Jimenes, Emanuel Rivera, Austin Slater, Nick Maton, Ryan O'Hearn, a struggling Jackson Holliday every single night. This is not a good team. This is a bad team. I would argue that 8 out of our 14 positions players is not an every day quality MLB player. That is not good. Our only hope is Westburg, Kjerstad, Mountcastle, Urias all return to replace Eloy, Maton, Soto, Rivera and are in top form the rest of the way.

I get it, however there are a lot of teams that are playoff team who are struggling the second half. The Yankees have faired about the same. The Os can still win the division. I do agree that the best hope is the position players return, and play to their potential, and the same with the injured pitchers who could be back. I would feel a whole lot better going into the playoffs with those guys back. 
Let me put it this way: I followed the Giants a lot because the Os sucked and my wife is a life long Giants fan. The 2010 team that won the WS didn’t feel that dominant going into the playoffs, but they caught fire and players that were not well known became hero’s. 
This team is going to make the playoffs, if they shit the bed in the playoffs again, then I am ready to discuss all of this. Until then, this team still has a chance to win it all. The Rangers didn’t feel like a better team than the Os last year but they ended up winning it all. 

[terpoh]

2 minutes ago, sevastras said:

I get it, however there are a lot of teams that are playoff team who are struggling the second half. The Yankees have faired about the same. The Os can still win the division. I do agree that the best hope is the position players return, and play to their potential, and the same with the injured pitchers who could be back. I would feel a whole lot better going into the playoffs with those guys back. 
Let me put it this way: I followed the Giants a lot because the Os sucked and my wife is a life long Giants fan. The 2010 team that won the WS didn’t feel that dominant going into the playoffs, but they caught fire and players that were not well known became hero’s. 
This team is going to make the playoffs, if they shit the bed in the playoffs again, then I am ready to discuss all of this. Until then, this team still has a chance to win it all. The Rangers didn’t feel like a better team than the Os last year but they ended up winning it all. 

Thats kind of my point though- the Orioles of May and June certainly had the ability to catch fire and win it all. This is not the same team. And not the same team in the sense that guys are struggling, this is not the same team in the sense that its literally new players who are not as good. Theres a big difference in Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Jonah Heim, Evan Carter, Josh Jung, and Nathaniel Lowe catching fire and Rivera, Jimenez, Maton and O'Hearn.

[terpoh]

Just now, terpoh said:

Thats kind of my point though- the Orioles of May and June certainly had the ability to catch fire and win it all. This is not the same team. And not the same team in the sense that guys are struggling, this is not the same team in the sense that its literally new players who are not as good. Theres a big difference in Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Jonah Heim, Evan Carter, Josh Jung, and Nathaniel Lowe catching fire and Rivera, Jimenez, Maton and O'Hearn.

If we do get Westburg, Mounty, Kjerstad and Urias back and they are all hitting on all cylinders then I agree with you we have as good a shot as anyone. But the clock is ticking- it sounds like Mounty wont be back this year at all. Westburg is dealing with an injury thats pretty important for swinging a bat. Kjerstad has been solid but is still a bit of an unknown. And Urias was bad most of the year but was awesome in August. 

[Too Tall]

It is what it is. Some say fire Hyde - hell fire everybody it isn't giong to change. Earl couldn't win with this team. Heck he'd have a stroke with the umpiring. Injuries happen but this year has been special in a very negative way. Just suppose we entered September with a rotation of Burnes, Eflin, Bradish, GRod, Kramer/Suarez. That's not even counting Means or Wells. I have no idea why Adley has fallen off the cliff or Cowser and Holliday look lost. Even Gunnar had a spell. 2024 has turned into a disaster on both sides of the ball that will carry into next season. Elias will have to replan more than pitching. Watching this team, I feel like I'm almost back in the "tank years." Yet we will probably make the playoffs. If we do more than that, Hyde ought to be Manager of The Year for Life. And yet this team - this game can turn on a dime. I'm waiting - I'm hoping - but I'm not holding my breath.

[Gentile4]

8 hours ago, gtman55 said:

Here's the issue I see. Holliday is being treated like most of the top prospects in the game. Basically play them everyday and let them go through their struggles and get "initiated" into the MLB. On the other hand Kjerstad and now Mayo are only used sporadically. One error or an 0-4 game and they ride the bench for a 3-4 days. Meanwhile over the hill guys like Jiminez and Rivera get plenty of chances.

Give them a real chance.

This. Not to mention Kjerstadt hasn't really struggled to the extent we've seen w/Holliday and Mayo. It's painful watching Jiminez and Riveral at this point.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

I still think Kjerstad in RF or LF is a minus.

OHearn is a minus with the glove and bat right now.  Yes Kjerstad isn’t ideal in the OF but hopefully the bat makes up for it.

OHearn is a zero on both sides

[Sports Guy]

They are doing with Holliday what they did with Gunnar and Adley…IE, let them struggle and deal with those lumps early on.

The thing is, Holliday has been worse and he’s playing too much.  Very few days off and facing all types of pitchers.  Probably benefits him long term but certainly hurting now. If the Os didn’t have so many injuries, they would likely be picking and choosing his spots more right now.  He will be a completely different player in 2025.

[Aristotelian]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They are doing with Holliday what they did with Gunnar and Adley…IE, let them struggle and deal with those lumps early on.

The thing is, Holliday has been worse and he’s playing too much.  Very few days off and facing all types of pitchers.  Probably benefits him long term but certainly hurting now. If the Os didn’t have so many injuries, they would likely be picking and choosing his spots more right now.  He will be a completely different player in 2025.

If it weren't for the injuries to Westburg and Urias he might be playing less or even back in AAA. Wasn't he re-promoted after the Westburg injury?

[Three Run Homer]

Top ten things that can revive this offense, in descending order of likelihood:

1.  Kjerstad is called up and performs at his previous level from this season, taking at bats away from Jimenez and O'Hearn.  (This should have been done yesterday)

2.  Urias comes back and hits closer to August Urias than First Half Urias.

3.  Rutschman snaps out of it.

4.  Gunnar, Tony or Ced goes on a tear.

5.  Cowser snaps out of it.

6.  Westburg comes back and is at least 80 percent of the hitter he was before the injury.

7.  O'Hearn snaps out of it

8.  Holliday snaps out of it

9.  Mayo snaps out of it

10.  Mountcastle comes back at hits better than he did before the injury.  

 

[e16bball]

13 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

Top ten things that can revive this offense, in descending order of likelihood:

1.  Kjerstad is called up and performs at his previous level from this season, taking at bats away from Jimenez and O'Hearn.  (This should have been done yesterday)

2.  Urias comes back and hits closer to August Urias than First Half Urias.

3.  Rutschman snaps out of it.

4.  Gunnar, Tony or Ced goes on a tear.

5.  Cowser snaps out of it.

6.  Westburg comes back and is at least 80 percent of the hitter he was before the injury.

7.  O'Hearn snaps out of it

8.  Holliday snaps out of it

9.  Mayo snaps out of it

10.  Mountcastle comes back at hits better than he did before the injury.  

 

Think Adley has to be #1.

Might be #2 behind Kjerstad, but I’m not at all sold on Heston coming back and mashing right out of the gate. 

In fairness, I’m also not sold on Adley figuring it out, given how he looks. But he’s got well over 1000 PAs of being like a 130 wRC+ bat that predate these absolutely dreadful 200ish. I think that’s the most likely massive change that could happen to us — Adley just returns to career norms.

Edited Saturday at 18:43 by e16bball

[Glenburnie]

I'd rather a complete implosion at this point for two reasons: foremost we don't need to experience more Groundhog Day in a playoff setting..... and secondly(but not likely although perhaps)  it serves as a forcing function to make them look into what we've known for a long time is the root cause (consistent offense).  I think equally important is an honest assessment of the organizational philosophy and coaching.  Perhaps I'm delusional but maybe the new owner with some more rigorous PE funding can acquire talent.  He has been told by everybody in the organization and in the media that he was acquiring a Mensa club so perhaps now he will be able to sort through a few things.  On a final note it is just staggeringly ironic that the Orioles have multiple hitting and offensive strategy coaches that seem to be in the dugout more so than any other team.

When the season finally ends and we look back at the trades we will have the dubious distinction of perhaps getting the best pitcher traded for the least amount of comparative assets and yet also the worst pitcher traded for the maximum amount of assets surrendered.... quite an accomplishment!

The game that I watched yesterday I just couldn't believe hearing how MASN, had the lack of awareness to show the change in Jimenez launch angle since coming to the Orioles. He came up in one of the few situations with a man on base after AR's walk and he promptly popped up on the first pitch.  Reflecting on this it just seems that organizationally they are incapable of looking at any individual and understanding their potential unique talent skill in the way it manifests.  They treat each individual hitter as if they can force them into a square analytical profile in terms of approach.....and that the output will be the same as their data sets indicate.  It really is an ignorant way of applying data analytics. 

 

It would be interesting to see how the analytics are compiled and used. Very curious as to how these stats are weighted... if at all.. for current performance in the games in front of their faces. Hopefully, besides historical stats they are weighingt current season and last 10 days more heavily. My suspicion is using AI to test data patterns could result in determining most productive stat weighting. Let's face it all of life consists of cycles and changing patterns so I think any use of simple historical data for decision making is a fools errand. I wish one could find out exactly how teams are using "analytics " . I think it should resemble technical analysis for stock traders where the emphasis is on trends momentum and pattern reversals including mean deviation and reversions . I get the feeling that these analytics are primarily if not exclusively used with respect to physical aspects of the game i. e. spin rate and launch angles so primarily pitching and hitting physics. The most important element seems to be missing.... namely the intangibles of momentum, trend and mean reversion of individual players. What are these alleged analytics and how they're used?  Everybody claims they use them but are they all doing it the same? Does anybody actually have a full time analytics dept for whole organization that applies creative AI application to data.?

 

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, Glenburnie said:

I'd rather a complete implosion at this point for two reasons: foremost we don't need to experience more Groundhog Day in a playoff setting..... and secondly(but not likely although perhaps)  it serves as a forcing function to make them look into what we've known for a long time is the root cause (consistent offense).  I think equally important is an honest assessment of the organizational philosophy and coaching.  Perhaps I'm delusional but maybe the new owner with some more rigorous PE funding can acquire talent.  He has been told by everybody in the organization and in the media that he was acquiring a Mensa club so perhaps now he will be able to sort through a few things.  On a final note it is just staggeringly ironic that the Orioles have multiple hitting and offensive strategy coaches that seem to be in the dugout more so than any other team.

When the season finally ends and we look back at the trades we will have the dubious distinction of perhaps getting the best pitcher traded for the least amount of comparative assets and yet also the worst pitcher traded for the maximum amount of assets surrendered.... quite an accomplishment!

The game that I watched yesterday I just couldn't believe hearing how MASN, had the lack of awareness to show the change in Jimenez launch angle since coming to the Orioles. He came up in one of the few situations with a man on base after AR's walk and he promptly popped up on the first pitch.  Reflecting on this it just seems that organizationally they are incapable of looking at any individual and understanding their potential unique talent skill in the way it manifests.  They treat each individual hitter as if they can force them into a square analytical profile in terms of approach.....and that the output will be the same as their data sets indicate.  It really is an ignorant way of applying data analytics. 

 

It would be interesting to see how the analytics are compiled and used. Very curious as to how these stats are weighted... if at all.. for current performance in the games in front of their faces. Hopefully, besides historical stats they are weighingt current season and last 10 days more heavily. My suspicion is using AI to test data patterns could result in determining most productive stat weighting. Let's face it all of life consists of cycles and changing patterns so I think any use of simple historical data for decision making is a fools errand. I wish one could find out exactly how teams are using "analytics " . I think it should resemble technical analysis for stock traders where the emphasis is on trends momentum and pattern reversals including mean deviation and reversions . I get the feeling that these analytics are primarily if not exclusively used with respect to physical aspects of the game i. e. spin rate and launch angles so primarily pitching and hitting physics. The most important element seems to be missing.... namely the intangibles of momentum, trend and mean reversion of individual players. What are these alleged analytics and how they're used?  Everybody claims they use them but are they all doing it the same? Does anybody actually have a full time analytics dept for whole organization that applies creative AI application to data.?

 

This is absurd. I am still rooting for the Orioles. We have half our lineup, our closer, and two of our top pitchers on the IL. Elias's process won 100+ games last year but it's not going to work 100% of the time. I do not want anyone else in charge and don't want to go back to the dark ages of running the team on intuition and old school thinking. 

[Glenburnie]

Who said anything about putting anybody else in charge, half the lineup out on IL? I don’t think that matters as none of the missing were offensive juggernauts, and once again back to that ridiculous narrative about pitching even with the pitching injuries what were the missing going to do, consistently go 8 with 1 run given up only to lose while the offense maybe hits a solo homer after the starter leaves. No question the loss of Bautista’s saves was going to hurt in 2024 but kill that pitching and injury narrative. The present rotation is adequate to win games on a team that can score 4 or more runs a game. The problem is consistent offensive production. What’s the reference to going back to old school thinking. That’s precisely what occurs from the dugout on a daily basis except only the unproductive aspects of old school.... and not much of the positives of old school approach. Nothing stated was a promotion of intuition instead quite the opposite. Creative data analysis will be running everybody’s life soon enough so better get with the program.

 

Edited Saturday at 19:45 by Glenburnie

[Fiver6565]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

If it weren't for the injuries to Westburg and Urias he might be playing less or even back in AAA. Wasn't he re-promoted after the Westburg injury?

He was called up before the Westburg injury. I’m n fact his first game back when he hit the grand slam, was the same game Westburg broke his hand.