What the Os did at the deadline will matter

[Pickles]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I think this is the best post you have ever made.  Really well said.

I think what CoC was saying is that the BJs had good young talent on offense.  The depth of that talent is greatly questioned and yea, their FA signings have larger been failures.

I don’t think people will ever learn that throwing 9 figure deals at aging and soon to be declining players isn’t a smart thing to do…but hey, it makes our payroll number look so much better!  Ownership is trying!!!

I've had better, but we're very much in alignment this off-season, which hasn't often been the case.

They need a RHH OF option.  It doesn't have to be a regular, but it has to be somebody who can defend and hit lefties.  It's a need but it is a supplemental piece to what is already there.

Same is really true of the bullpen.  They need to supplement what they have.

The rotation is a little different, as it always is, because you can literally never have enough great starting pitching.  But most of the rotation is already in place. If they spent a lot of money this is where I suspect it would be at.  But they don't have to sign a 100+ million FA contract to bring in a guy that can make this rotation championship caliber.

[Jim'sKid26]

5 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Putting aside the (obviously wrong) assertion that the Royals “kicked our ass,” I’m just not sure I see the similarities between the 2023 postseason and the 2024 postseason that would allow us to draw any conclusion that they’re related or part of any sort of meaningful pattern. 

In 2023, we came in riding high, having beaten the Rays to the finish line. Hottest team in the AL. Pretty conservative deadline. Long break before hosting the ALDS. Hit the ball decently. Pitching imploded. 

In 2024, we came in riding a multi-month scuffle to the finish line. Coldest team in the whole playoffs. Much more aggressive deadline. Jumped right into the wild card game. Couldn’t hit to save our lives. Pitching was incredible.

I mean…what’s the takeaway? Where’s the pattern? Pitching great wasn’t enough to win. Hitting okay wasn’t enough to be competitive. Come in hot, come in cold. Active deadline, slow deadline. Win a dogfight for the division, back in with a wild card. Long break, no break. Best RISP team in the league, one of the worst RISP teams in the league. The only commonality is that both teams lost.

Even the great swoon of 2024 came in two separate and distinct stages. We had two months where the pitching was terrible (5.15 ERA from 6/16 to 8/16), but the hitting was excellent (127 wRC+ in the same span). And then we immediately turned around and had a month and a half, all the way into the postseason, where the pitching was fine (3.93 ERA from 8/16 to end of season), but we couldn’t hit a thing (99 wRC+).

As I said above, I just don’t see the trend line. I don’t see the pattern that “smart business people” would pick up on about the model here. Is there not enough pitching? Didn’t look like it at the end of this year. Is there something wrong with the hitting approach? Sure never seemed that way until two months ago. Do the prospects not translate? Gunnar is an MVP finalist and Adley/Westburg are All-Stars. 

Where’s the crack in the model? Is there a fatal flaw that requires a shakeup? Or has it just been shitty timing, some bad injury luck, and a team built around some kids who haven’t yet been ready for primetime pressure? By how much should 5 games in the postseason outweigh the 445 they’ve played since Adley came up as the vanguard of the Calvary, a period in which they’ve had the best record in the American League?

The pattern, as I see it, is two straight years of getting swept in the first round of the playoffs. 

The takeaway is that the teams were not good enough to win in the playoffs.

The crack in the model, IMHO, is the drafting strategy that excluded high ceiling pitching prospects in the draft. I will concede that that may not have had a huge effect on the 2024 team had the hitters they drafted instead had actually performed well when they came up.

Timing and injury luck were definitely factors, but every team has injuries and bad luck. Depth helps mitigate injuries. 

Gunnar is a star, I agree. Adley was not good in 2024. Westburg got hurt. 

With regard to how playoff games outweigh regular season games I can only say that "flags fly forever."

[Pickles]

10 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

The pattern, as I see it, is two straight years of getting swept in the first round of the playoffs. 

The takeaway is that the teams were not good enough to win in the playoffs.

The crack in the model, IMHO, is the drafting strategy that excluded high ceiling pitching prospects in the draft. I will concede that that may not have had a huge effect on the 2024 team had the hitters they drafted instead had actually performed well when they came up.

Timing and injury luck were definitely factors, but every team has injuries and bad luck. Depth helps mitigate injuries. 

Gunnar is a star, I agree. Adley was not good in 2024. Westburg got hurt. 

With regard to how playoff games outweigh regular season games I can only say that "flags fly forever."

The LAD were 1-6 the last two postseasons.

This year they made it to the World Series.

What did they do differently this year?  And which "high ceiling pitching prospects" that they drafted made this possible?

Was it Jack Flaherty?  Was it Yamamoto?

[Jim'sKid26]

56 minutes ago, Pickles said:

The LAD were 1-6 the last two postseasons.

This year they made it to the World Series.

What did they do differently this year?  And which "high ceiling pitching prospects" that they drafted made this possible?

Was it Jack Flaherty?  Was it Yamamoto?

Yamamoto and Ohtani seem to have helped their playoff run. I would call that a bit of a shakeup of the lineup on the LAD's part. But they seem like an odd comp for the Orioles. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Yamamoto and Ohtani seem to have helped their playoff run. I would call that a bit of a shakeup of the lineup on the LAD's part. But they seem like an odd comp for the Orioles. 

The Dodgers have had the same formula for years. Lots of home grown guys and sign/trade for players to supplement the roster.

They have had very little postseason success over the years, outside of a bubble WS that isn’t a true title imo.

They have even been swept out of the playoffs and had similar poor success recently, ala the Os….thus the comp. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Dodgers have had the same formula for years. Lots of home grown guys and sign/trade for players to supplement the roster.

They have had very little postseason success over the years, outside of a bubble WS that isn’t a true title imo.

They have even been swept out of the playoffs and had similar poor success recently, ala the Os….thus the comp. 

If the O's won one in an abbreviated season you wouldn't count it?

[Spakman]

On 10/25/2024 at 9:36 AM, Sports Guy said:

There has been a lot of talk about signing multiple starters, not picking up options/non tendering guys, etc…

The reality is that what Elias did at the deadline will matter and will be how they construct the roster.

The Orioles are not going to go out and sign 2 starters and risk blocking Rogers or Povich and just having them in the minors.  
 

I do believe they sign one starter and I do think a guy like Bieber, who won’t be pitching in the majors until midway through the season is possible but they just aren’t going to do anything more than that. 
 

Same thing for the pen. The chances are the pen we ended the year with is what we will have in 2025, plus Felix of course.  Maybe they don’t bring back one guy who was on it but that’s about it. 
 

When Elias added Eflin, Rogers, Soto and Dominguez, he spoke about how they liked them because they had control beyond 2024. Dominguez pitched reasonably well, Soto was very good after his first few outings and obviously Eflin was a big pick up.

That really just leaves Rogers. He has options and is making nothing, so obviously he is being brought back.  While it’s possible he starts in AAA, it will be because Povich beat him out.

Now, things could change if we have another pitcher injury during the offseason like we have had the last few years but as of now, the realistic expectation should be 1 starter, 1 reliever (at most) and role players for the offense.  

This would be the saddest off-season I could ever imagine. It could certainly happen, but if it does not many people are gonna be buying tickets. If this is Elias mindset that he can’t be wrong and he has to live and die with the players he trades for and signs than he needs to wake up and realize people make mistake even himself and adjust accordingly. I don’t believe this is how the off-season will go at all. The owner wants to spend money if elias doesn’t spend it because of principles, he won’t be here long

[Pickles]

4 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Yamamoto and Ohtani seem to have helped their playoff run. I would call that a bit of a shakeup of the lineup on the LAD's part. But they seem like an odd comp for the Orioles. 

You said the defining features of the Orioles was their 0-5 playoff record the last two years.  And you hypothesized a solution to it being drafting more "high ceiling pitchers."

I didn't say the Dodgers were a 1:1 comparison, but I pointed out they were 1-6 the last two postseasons and this year are in the World Series, and they didn't do it by drafting any "high ceiling pitchers."

There is a randomness to the post-season.  The O's record the last two years, far from being a defining feature, isn't particularly telling at all about their talent or organization.

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If the O's won one in an abbreviated season you wouldn't count it?

It counts but definitely an asterisk 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Spakman said:

This would be the saddest off-season I could ever imagine. It could certainly happen, but if it does not many people are gonna be buying tickets. If this is Elias mindset that he can’t be wrong and he has to live and die with the players he trades for and signs than he needs to wake up and realize people make mistake even himself and adjust accordingly. I don’t believe this is how the off-season will go at all. The owner wants to spend money if elias doesn’t spend it because of principles, he won’t be here long

So signing Snell, a good reliever, a 4th OFer that hits lefties and a good back up C is a sad/bad offseason?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

It counts but definitely an asterisk 

I'd have the same level of joy if the O's won one of those.