Washington Will Take Strasburg

[24fps]

He could step right in. If I invested that much money into him and he is already ready to be a major league starter, I stick him right into the rotation. He needs no more developement, his fastball is already the best in the majors and his slider is the best in the draft class. He could be a successful 2 pitch pitcher. If he did get promoted to the bigs right after signing in August, Im not gonna lie, Id be at his first game in Washington.

Any idea how devastating a quality off-speed pitch could be coming off a 100 mph fastball in the 7th inning? If I'm spending $50 million, then I'm making sure he's considerably better than Lincecum even if it means a little time in the minors.

And I'm not spending $50 million either...

[geschinger]

I'd draft him, offer him David Price money +10% and not worry about it. Boras would take it until the last minute but no way would he be dumb enough to turn it down.

[Hutman]

I think this guy is looking for Prior money not Price money. I would say Prior +10% is more in the ball park. And your right that Boras will go until 8/14 at 11:58pm before he signs, which is a shame because I'd love to see this kid pitch for the Nats this year. He looks pretty special.

[geschinger]

I think this guy is looking for Prior money not Price money. I would say Prior +10% is more in the ball park. And your right that Boras will go until 8/14 at 11:58pm before he signs, which is a shame because I'd love to see this kid pitch for the Nats this year. He looks pretty special.

I agree that is what he'd be looking for but not even Boras would be insane enough to turn down Price + 10% for a pitcher considering the downside with injuries, etc... and no guarantees that when he has even less leverage that he'll do better next year.

[crawdad]

What he is looking to get would be this:

2009 12MM signing bonus and MiL contract.

2010 300k

2011 350k

2012 3MM

2013 6MM

2014 10MM

2015 14MM

That comes to 45.65MM.

This assumes super 2 status and that he would be slightly above league average.

[allstar1579]

He just wants what he is going to get guaranteed and up front instead of going through arb and having his contract renewed early. That way he's up for FA again when he is like 27 and looking at a MAJOR payday. That is the way Boras thinks with young kids, it's not the first payday, it's the second one he's looking at. Think Longoria, and when he'll be due for FA after this contract (which is a bargain for the Rays) and how much he'll be looking at making as a model for what Boras is thinking.

I'm sure Boras is thinking if he's going to sign something long early to eat up some arb years, he wants guaranteed money for those first 2 years when he can't do anything about what the club pays him.

[Bosibus]

Does Strasburg break the eternal code of TINSTAAPP?

[Stotle]

Does Strasburg break the eternal code of TINSTAAPP?

I hate that saying -- and it isn't true.

Is David Price not a prospect? Or Tommy Hanson?

[JTrea81]

What he is looking to get would be this:

2009 12MM signing bonus and MiL contract.

2010 300k

2011 350k

2012 3MM

2013 6MM

2014 10MM

2015 14MM

That comes to 45.65MM.

This assumes super 2 status and that he would be slightly above league average.

And Washington will get shafted in the final years of that contract, paying Strasburg to rehab on the DL IMO. He's going to get a ML contract. There is no doubt about that.

[Stotle]

And Washington will get shafted in the final years of that contract, paying Strasburg to rehab on the DL IMO. He's going to get a ML contract. There is no doubt about that.

Ultimately it won't matter because he'll be up next year, but this bolded part is certainly not true. WAS has stated their plan is to sign him and shut him down for the rest of the year. If they stick to that plan, why would they occupy a 40-man space? More likely, they'd have a clause in the contract that says he needs to be on the big league roster by a certain time.

As I said, it won't matter either way because he'll be up next year, but that particular contractual issue could go either way depending on what WAS wants to do, I would think. Shrug.

[Bosibus]

I hate that saying -- and it isn't true.

Is David Price not a prospect? Or Tommy Hanson?

TINSTAAPP is implying that pitchers, unlike hitters, tend not to mature in the minors as a hitter does. They usually continue pitching and while doing so, pitching with their flaws that they were drafted with. It benefits a MLB team to have a young pitching prospect on the MLB team instead of in the minors because the return on the investment of that player in the minors is not worth the risk of injury. Huckabay also noted this in an article:

When I first wrote that “There’s No Such Thing as a Pitching Prospect,” it meant two things, one of which has kind of become lost over time. Yes, it means that pitchers get hurt at approximately the same rate that methheads swipe identities and lose teeth. That’s what all pitchers do, not just prospects. But it also had another meaning—that guys who are totally blowing people away in the minors like they’re so many hot dog pretenders before Kobayashi are absolutely not pitching prospects—they’re already pitchers, and more time in the minors only means time off the living, pulsating clocks that are their labrums, rotator cuffs, and elbows.

Link

Stotle, I was trying to ask if you thought Strasburg should be put immediately into the major leagues instead of wasting time in the minors? At this point, the only thing the Nats would be risking would be an injury, which TINSTAAPP is insinuating.

[Stotle]

TINSTAAPP is implying that pitchers, unlike hitters, tend not to mature in the minors as a hitter does. They usually continue pitching and while doing so, pitching with their flaws that they were drafted with. It benefits a MLB team to have a young pitching prospect on the MLB team instead of in the minors because the return on the investment of that player in the minors is not worth the risk of injury. Huckabay also noted this in an article:

Link

Stotle, I was trying to ask if you thought Strasburg should be put immediately into the major leagues instead of wasting time in the minors? At this point, the only thing the Nats would be risking would be an injury, which TINSTAAPP is insinuating.

Yeah, I assume the plan is to shut him down. Maybe have him throw a little in the off-season (maybe limited AFL action -- like relief or on a taxi squad for a couple starts), then plug him in the rotation next spring. I agree it would not be worth it to have Strasburg log MiL innings, particularly if he signs for a crazy bonus or ML contract.

On TINSTAAPP, I just disagree. I agree you ideally don't want a prospect throwing unnecssary innings in the minors. The same, I disagree that learning and development is necessarily as easy or even feasible at the ML level.

[crawdad]

And Washington will get shafted in the final years of that contract, paying Strasburg to rehab on the DL IMO. He's going to get a ML contract. There is no doubt about that.

No. If he goes on the DL, then you won't see such an increase in arbitration values.

[allstar1579]

TINSTAAPP is implying that pitchers, unlike hitters, tend not to mature in the minors as a hitter does. They usually continue pitching and while doing so, pitching with their flaws that they were drafted with. It benefits a MLB team to have a young pitching prospect on the MLB team instead of in the minors because the return on the investment of that player in the minors is not worth the risk of injury. Huckabay also noted this in an article:

Link

Stotle, I was trying to ask if you thought Strasburg should be put immediately into the major leagues instead of wasting time in the minors? At this point, the only thing the Nats would be risking would be an injury, which TINSTAAPP is insinuating.

I don't agree with TINSTAAP either. If that was the case, there would never be a late round draft pick that has any success in the major leagues. Pitchers mature just as much as hitters do in the minors, it comes with learning nuances of the game, pitch selection, and experience.

The whole principle is saying that you can take a guy, stick him in the majors and let him sink or swim. I will guarantee you that more pitchers would fail because of this. Once they hit the majors, that clock is ticking, and if it takes them 3 years to really get it all together and start being successful (if a team is willing to put up with him sucking for 3 years) then that team has contributed negatively to it's own win/loss record when it could have found other options while letting the player work out what they need to develop in the minors when for all intents and purposes stats count, but they don't "count".

[Bosibus]

I don't agree with TINSTAAP either. If that was the case, there would never be a late round draft pick that has any success in the major leagues. Pitchers mature just as much as hitters do in the minors, it comes with learning nuances of the game, pitch selection, and experience.

The whole principle is saying that you can take a guy, stick him in the majors and let him sink or swim. I will guarantee you that more pitchers would fail because of this. Once they hit the majors, that clock is ticking, and if it takes them 3 years to really get it all together and start being successful (if a team is willing to put up with him sucking for 3 years) then that team has contributed negatively to it's own win/loss record when it could have found other options while letting the player work out what they need to develop in the minors when for all intents and purposes stats count, but they don't "count".

TINSTAAPP is not perfect, everything has exceptions and I agree, this philosophy has plenty of them.

But the idea is these pitchers are not just "guys", we are talking about pitchers who are blowing away the minors. Why do teams keep them in the minor leagues if they are risking injury and they would get the same production from this prospect right now instead of next year at the MLB level. A FB pitcher most likely will not turn into a GB pitcher in a year because he is throwing in the minors. A guy with great stuff but has trouble with command most likely will have great stuff and trouble with command in the minors and majors.

But if you have a pitching prospect that is ripping away batters at MiLB level, why keep him down there and risk the injury? You most likely are going to get the same production now as you will now than a year later. IMO, the philosophy is not about letting players sink or swim, it is about getting the best value out of your investment with trying to eliminate the risk of injury.