O's Getting Serious About Sano?

[PitchingWins]

We gave Wieters $5-6 mil right? It's as big as gamble as that. So go for it!

While its still a gamble, I dont think the Wieters deal was nearly as much of a gamble, he is infact, just a tad older ( heard he actually ages at 1/2 the rate of all other humans), has(d) faced better pitching/teams than sano has.

[Arthur_Bryant]

We gave Wieters $5-6 mil right? It's as big as gamble as that. So go for it!

No, Wieters was much less a gamble, age 21 with a track record in NCAA.

That doesn't mean not to do it. Just that there was much less risk with Wieters.

[GoldGlove21]

The answer to the following questions go a long way towards deciding a players value in my opinion.

1.) Does the player play a premium position?

SS, check.

2.) Does he have a great deal of upside?

He is 16/17 years old and would have been a top 15-20 pick in this years draft, check.

3.) Can he be coached?

This question is usually answered by the number of teams interested in a given player, but there is always risk. That being said, a kid that hits with a metal bat might not develop into a similar hitter when wooden bats are utilized.

4.) Is he coveted by other teams?

More than half of the teams in the majors are in on this kid, including teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Twins.

5.) Does he fill a need on our team?

He may fill a bigger long term need for our team than any other team in the majors.

6.) is there better options out there?

What free agents are available at the SS position in the next 2 years? What will they cost? Do they fit in with our rebuilding plan?

There is risk associated with signing a free agent, drafting a player, or signing an international free agent. All you can hope for is that more often than not, the players you select work out more than they fail. There is a reason why baseball has more than 50 rounds. If 10%-20% of those players eventually help the big club, then you likely had a solid draft. My theory is that the Orioles can afford $7 million for a first round pick. If they can get Hobgood to sign for $2.6 Million and Sano to sign for $5 million, then they essentially signed two first round talents for a total of $7.6 Million. If one of the two becomes a starter then the risk becomes the reward.

[Arthur_Bryant]

The answer to the following questions go a long way towards deciding a players value in my opinion.

5.) Does he fill a need on our team?

He may fill a bigger long term need for our team than any other team in the majors.

6.) is there better options out there?

What free agents are available at the SS position in the next 2 years? What will they cost? Do they fit in with our rebuilding plan?

Great post, but I do take issue with the two above. At age 16 he would have to be phenomenal to figure in their plans and needs of the big league team two or three years down the road.

Besides, almost every team could answer "yes" to #5. Who couldn't find a way to use a power-hitting shortstop who is good in the field?

[CalForPresident]

Wow we have to get this guy he can spend 2-3 years in the minors and come up. Well probably 3 or 4 is more like but hopefully 2-3. Anyways this is what this team needs and if this kid can be a third of Hanley than we are going to seriously win a ton of rings! But before that happens we need to sign the kid so lets go out there and do it. That is why McPhail has Angelos spending so much to go over there and scout so let that money payoff by signing this kid!

[BaltimoreFan]

Great post, but I do take issue with the two above. At age 16 he would have to be phenomenal to figure in their plans and needs of the big league team two or three years down the road.

Besides, almost every team could answer "yes" to #5. Who couldn't find a way to use a power-hitting shortstop who is good in the field?

He's more likely a 3B apparently, which is another gaping hole on our team.

Either way, he fits in with us as we have absolutely no one coming up as a 3B/SS in our system.

[SrMeowMeow]

Well if he turns out to be a superstar at any position, he's a fit. I really don't think fitting a need is a question with a player this young.

[liquid0623]

Some teams project him to play short until he hits like 27 and then move over to third and hit 40 home runs a year. Some teams say he's the best prospect they have seen in the past 20 years of scouting in the Dominican and others say that his bat is right behind Miguel Cabrera, but that his other tools are superior. This is not me saying this... The teams are saying this.

Rob

[whatdoiget000]

The answer to the following questions go a long way towards deciding a players value in my opinion.

2.) Does he have a great deal of upside?

He is 16/17 years old and would have been a top 15-20 pick in this years draft, check.

I have to disagree. I think he would've been top 5 this year.

[GoldGlove21]

I have to disagree. I think he would've been top 5 this year.

That even further highlights my point. You would give $4-$6 Million for a prospect like Hanley Ramirez right? I would pay Sano, hands down.

[Arthur_Bryant]

That even further highlights my point. You would give $4-$6 Million for a prospect like Hanley Ramirez right? I would pay Sano, hands down.

Of course Ramirez himself was actually a Caribbean free agent signing, by Boston at the age of 16. And he probably didn't cost $4-6MM, though he might've been in seven figures. (Anybody know?).

Worth noting that he needed four years to reach AA and five to play his first game in MLB.

This is obviously a call by the scouts and the player development side, but if they think he's worth going after, I hope they go after him real hard.

[Sanfran327]

Keep in mind there's a decent chance that this kid could end up switching positions eventually. Like everyone always says, the best athletes in high school often play shortstop because of their arm and athleticism. Remember, AJ was a shortstop for the same reason...

At only 16 years old, there are quite litterally zero guarantees about this kid. It's a tremendous risk, but one with tremenous upside as well. I'm not 100% sure that gambling your way out of the cellar is the way to go, but sometimes you have to take risks to turn things around. I think AM is too conservative to write this kid a check.

[SteveA]

Of course Ramirez himself was actually a Caribbean free agent signing, by Boston at the age of 16. And he probably didn't cost $4-6MM, though he might've been in seven figures. (Anybody know?).

Worth noting that he needed four years to reach AA and five to play his first game in MLB.

This is obviously a call by the scouts and the player development side, but if they think he's worth going after, I hope they go after him real hard.

Bingo. I'm all for signing this kid, but people in this thread who project him in the 2011 lineup, or who are concerned with what our "positions of need" are, are being ridiculous. This is a guy who could make the team in 2014 and maybe achieve superstar status around 2016 if he lives up to potential. We need to take the step of getting guys like this inour pipeline but let's not get confused and assume the dividends will be seen in 2011 or something like that.

[markpolis]

Keep in mind there's a decent chance that this kid could end up switching positions eventually. Like everyone always says, the best athletes in high school often play shortstop because of their arm and athleticism. Remember, AJ was a shortstop for the same reason...

At only 16 years old, there are quite litterally zero guarantees about this kid. It's a tremendous risk, but one with tremenous upside as well. I'm not 100% sure that gambling your way out of the cellar is the way to go, but sometimes you have to take risks to turn things around. I think AM is too conservative to write this kid a check.

Please let me know when any prospect is guaranteed? :scratchchinhmm:

Is that why Boras gets so much for his guys... because he is offering guarantees?

[Sanfran327]

Please let me know when any prospect is guaranteed? :scratchchinhmm:

Is that why Boras gets so much for his guys... because he is offering guarantees?

That's part of my point. There are never any guarantees. But there are guys like Wieters, Strasburg, (Griffey, etc etc) that are as close to "locks" as they come as prospects.

The biggest difference is that you're talking about a 16-year-old kid (if he is, in fact, only 16... sorry to be speculative) who isn't even close to being physically mature yet and giving him a multi-million dollar check when he probably won't even get to the majors for another 5+ years.

Boras gets money out of his guys because he manipulates the market and demands the money his players get. If everyone ignored Boras, which would never happen, he'd lose some leverage.