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Who is the #19 prospect?


Tony-OH

Who is the #18 prospect?  

84 members have voted

  1. 1. Who is the #18 prospect?

    • Xavier Avery
      30
    • Bobby Bundy
      24
    • LJ Hoes
      13
    • Justin Moore
      1
    • Ronny Welty
      16


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I can't see how Welty gets the nod over Avery right here. Although he's the better rounded player, I still think Avery has more offensive upside. Plus, he was two years younger at the same level and their plate discipline numbers were similar. In fact, although gettting a few more walks, Welty struck out at a higher rate than Avery. For a guy who struck out 120 times, I don't see the big power upside with Welty who smacked 24 doubles, 2 triples, and 10 homers. You could say the same about Avery but I think I give him more benefit of the doubt at 19 years old.

I would look more to frame and swing when projecting power, not stats at Delmarva, but I agree Avery has a high offensive upside. Avery has the better tools if he hits his ceiling, but I don't think he'll necessarily hit for the power that Welty can. Welty's arm also puts Avery's to shame (just as Avery's speed blows away Welty). Having Avery/Welty in CF/RF should be fun for Frederick. Hopefully both improve on their reads and routes some, as well as turning it on offensively.

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This is exactly where our list starts to look more impressive, IMO. We still have several guys to come who have a decent chance to be good, or even very good, major league players.

This part of the list will largely determine whether the player development staff the O's have in place is good, bad or just ok. If a few of Hoes, Avery, Welty, Drake, Henry, Tolliver, Bundy, Adams (who I haven't given up on quite yet), Ohlman and a couple of other recent draftees really break out in the next few years, the O's will be in a great place.

I have a good amount of confidence that some of the pitchers will step up. I just hope that most or all of the position players don't turn into the next iteration of Kieron Pope.

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I have a question for the Welty guys? What kind of a player do you expect him to be in the major leagues? Do you project more power? High average? Better plate discipline? What kind of numbers would you expect from him as a corner outfielder?

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I have a question for the Welty guys? What kind of a player do you expect him to be in the major leagues? Do you project more power? High average? Better plate discipline? What kind of numbers would you expect from him as a corner outfielder?

I'll speak to Welty, though Stotle's much more capable.

To me, his upside is a Hideki Matsui (in America) type - .300, 25, .830 - with similar defense. I like him mostly because, of all of the guys we have in the minors, he seems to actually hit where others are all discussed in terms of projection.

I acknowledge that his K rate is high and will need to be improved. Ditto hos power (not quite taking off yet, though I question the role of Delmarva in that). He's far from a finished product, but much like Joseph, I like that we have a guy in the system who can hit a round ball with a round bat. We don't have many of them.

He should be below guys like Snyder/Joseph (better contact in general) and Bell/Waring (more power), but he deserves recognition.

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I'll speak to Welty, though Stotle's much more capable.

To me, his upside is a Hideki Matsui (in America) type - .300, 25, .830 - with similar defense. I like him mostly because, of all of the guys we have in the minors, he seems to actually hit where others are all discussed in terms of projection.

I acknowledge that his K rate is high and will need to be improved. Ditto hos power (not quite taking off yet, though I question the role of Delmarva in that). He's far from a finished product, but much like Joseph, I like that we have a guy in the system who can hit a round ball with a round bat. We don't have many of them.

He should be below guys like Snyder/Joseph (better contact in general) and Bell/Waring (more power), but he deserves recognition.

I think Matsui's contact rate will escape Welty. In my opinion a good target production line for Welty (if things click in development) is:

.285/.345/.470, 30 2B, 25 HR

Something around there. 20-25 HR power, around a #6-type hitter in a solid order.

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Reimold-esque.

A little. Reimold has much more raw power -- the 25 HR is really the max of what I see in there for Welty, whereas I think Reimold could pull off a 35 HR season. Reimold also commands the strikezone much better -- I see him as a potential .360ish OBP guy as opposed to Welty's .340 I listed above.

Generally, Reimold is a better hitter, but Welty as a Reimold-lite (right now) isn't too bad.

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As for Justin Moore, I never followed him much, so I have no clue what his "stuff" is like, but he looks to have good control. He does give up quite a few hits, and his K rate dropped from the GCL to Bluefield.

And comparing him to Bundy I do not like mostly because Bundy didn't have his best stuff this year. His fastball was apparently in the end almost 10 MPH slower than he was a year ago from being out of shape. So, yes, I guess Moore is comparable to a Bundy who throws in the upper 80's, but no copmparison to the Bundy who can touch mid 90's with a plus curveball.

Ronnie Welty seems to have perfect tools for RF. I think he will have JD Drew type power, with obviously lesser discipline. He is a very solid prospect IMO. He also seems like a hard worker, I am glad we have him in our system. This year, he made big steps in the improvement of his plate discipline as well as in the power department. He seems to be pretty consistent with the OPS thus far, but I think we are gonna see an increase from .800 in this upcoming year to something around .850-.875

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