Who is the #19 prospect?

[Tony-OH]

I think Matsui's contact rate will escape Welty. In my opinion a good target production line for Welty (if things click in development) is:

.285/.345/.470, 30 2B, 25 HR

Something around there. 20-25 HR power, around a #6-type hitter in a solid order.

Ok, got it. Now, the second part of this mission if you so choose (this is open to anyone not just Stotle).

Find me a guy with a .815 OPS in the major leagues who put up similar stats as Welty as a 21-year old in the Sally League. Pay particular attention to the K:BB ratio when finding a guy with similar stats.

[Stotle]

Ok, got it. Now, the second part of this mission if you so choose (this is open to anyone not just Stotle).

Find me a guy with a .815 OPS in the major leagues who put up similar stats as Welty as a 21-year old in the Sally League. Pay particular attention to the K:BB ratio when finding a guy with similar stats.

Don't have tons of time but here are some that come pretty close (noting I'm not a huge believer in hanging a lot on LoA stats being determinative):

Ryan Howard

Age 22 at Lakewood (2002)

.280/.367/.460

.455 BB/SO (66/145)

Mike Cameron

Age 20 at South Bend (1993)

.238/.285/.297

.267 BB/SO (27/101)

Ronnie Welty

Age 21 at Delmarva (2009)

.290/.373/.425

.383 BB/SO (46/120)

[Lucky Jim]

Don't have tons of time but here are some that come pretty close (noting I'm not a huge believer in hanging a lot on LoA stats being determinative):

Ryan Howard

Age 22 at Lakewood (2002)

.280/.367/.460

.455 BB/SO (66/145)

Mike Cameron

Age 20 at South Bend (1993)

.238/.285/.297

.267 BB/SO (27/101)

Ronnie Welty

Age 21 at Delmarva (2009)

.290/.373/.425

.383 BB/SO (46/120)

I tend to think the upside/risks with Welty are similar to the risks with Drew Stubbs.

[Tony-OH]

As for Justin Moore, I never followed him much, so I have no clue what his "stuff" is like, but he looks to have good control. He does give up quite a few hits, and his K rate dropped from the GCL to Bluefield.

And comparing him to Bundy I do not like mostly because Bundy didn't have his best stuff this year. His fastball was apparently in the end almost 10 MPH slower than he was a year ago from being out of shape. So, yes, I guess Moore is comparable to a Bundy who throws in the upper 80's, but no copmparison to the Bundy who can touch mid 90's with a plus curveball.

That guy has never been in the Orioles system but if I see him I'll let you know. Seriously, just because he touched that velocity at one time does not mean that is the kind of pitcher he's supposed to be. You keep claiming Bundy is 10 MPH off his velocity. That's just not true. If it were, there would be a serious injury concern. Bundy was supposed to sit 91-93. He did at times this year but was down to the 86-89 area late in the year.

Ronnie Welty seems to have perfect tools for RF. I think he will have JD Drew type power, with obviously lesser discipline. He is a very solid prospect IMO. He also seems like a hard worker, I am glad we have him in our system. This year, he made big steps in the improvement of his plate discipline as well as in the power department. He seems to be pretty consistent with the OPS thus far, but I think we are gonna see an increase from .800 in this upcoming year to something around .850-.875

Other than hoping, what gives you any indication he has Drew-type power? Also, what gives you the idea that he'll have a sudden jump of .50-.75 points in OPS?

Welty seems like a nice little player who does some things well, but for the life of me I don't know where all of this "love" comes from? I've never heard one scout tell me he's a guy to watch and even my organizational contacts think he's a 4th outfielder at best.

He was 21-years old last year who struck out in 24.4% of his PAs while hitting 10 home runs. He walked just 9.4% of his PA and his BABIP was .382 this year which suggests he was a bit lucky.

He's also not a high draft pick which means a lot of teams didn't see this "unforseen talent". So what we have here is a guy who was described as having some similarities to Hunter Pence and I think a bunch of people have just run with it. I know Stotle likes him and I respect Stotle's opinion, but I'm not sure where these .850-.875 OPS numbers are coming from.

I think the guy is doing well, but I think people are putting a lot of expectations on him that's just not fair in my opinion.

[Lucky Jim]

That guy has never been in the Orioles system but if I see him I'll let you know. Seriously, just because he touched that velocity at one time does not mean that is the kind of pitcher he's supposed to be. You keep claiming Bundy is 10 MPH off his velocity. That's just not true. If it were, there would be a serious injury concern. Bundy was supposed to sit 91-93. He did at times this year but was down to the 86-89 area late in the year.

Other than hoping, what gives you any indication he has Drew-type power? Also, what gives you the idea that he'll have a sudden jump of .50-.75 points in OPS?

Welty seems like a nice little player who does some things well, but for the life of me I don't know where all of this "love" comes from? I've never heard one scout tell me he's a guy to watch and even my organizational contacts think he's a 4th outfielder at best.

He was 21-years old last year who struck out in 24.4% of his PAs while hitting 10 home runs. He walked just 9.4% of his PA and his BABIP was .382 this year which suggests he was a bit lucky.

He's also not a high draft pick which means a lot of teams didn't see this "unforseen talent". So what we have here is a guy who was described as having some similarities to Hunter Pence and I think a bunch of people have just run with it. I know Stotle likes him and I respect Stotle's opinion, but I'm not sure where these .850-.875 OPS numbers are coming from.

I think the guy is doing well, but I think people are putting a lot of expectations on him that's just not fair in my opinion.

I don't think that putting him near Matt Angle on our prospect lists is "a lot of expectation." I think some folks just see some tools there, think he's a dark horse candidate to do a bit more, and kind of like that about him.

I think the K rate is something to be concerned about, of course. And imagine everyone else does, too. I mean, only QB said .850+, and everyone knows to discount his projections by about 10%.

I think he's a pretty good 4th OF candidate who, with a bit of a burst (that's w/in his skill set) could turn out to be a bit more.

[Ruzious]

It's kinda strange that thebaseballcube has power as being Welty's highest-rated attribute http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/W/Ronald-Welty.shtml . He should be rated below Angle, because Angle has 1 thing (arguably 2) that he can hold his hat on as a big-time major league skill that he's very good at - playing CF and arguably - stealing bases. Welty doesn't have that 1 or 2 valuable skills that he's really good at.

Otoh, a 21 year old .300 type hitter who's got a good walk rate is definitely someone to keep an eye on.

[Stotle]

I tend to think the upside/risks with Welty are similar to the risks with Drew Stubbs.

Stubbs is a decent comp, but he offers more defensive value and, I think, probably walks a little more? I honestly don't remember.

[Lucky Jim]

Stubbs is a decent comp, but he offers more defensive value and, I think, probably walks a little more? I honestly don't remember.

Right on both counts. I was just thinking in terms of slow-developing toolsy-guys.

[Stotle]

Right on both counts. I was just thinking in terms of slow-developing toolsy-guys.

Got it. Welty is the kind of player that will have to prove it at every step until he doesn't. That is, until he has a true "wow" summer, scouts will have their questions about him. That's fine.

He likely isn't going to be an All-star, but if he can produce as a starting right fielder that will be a huge "get" for the 20th round.

[QBsILLEST1]

That guy has never been in the Orioles system but if I see him I'll let you know. Seriously, just because he touched that velocity at one time does not mean that is the kind of pitcher he's supposed to be. You keep claiming Bundy is 10 MPH off his velocity. That's just not true. If it were, there would be a serious injury concern. Bundy was supposed to sit 91-93. He did at times this year but was down to the 86-89 area late in the year.

Other than hoping, what gives you any indication he has Drew-type power? Also, what gives you the idea that he'll have a sudden jump of .50-.75 points in OPS?

Welty seems like a nice little player who does some things well, but for the life of me I don't know where all of this "love" comes from? I've never heard one scout tell me he's a guy to watch and even my organizational contacts think he's a 4th outfielder at best.

He was 21-years old last year who struck out in 24.4% of his PAs while hitting 10 home runs. He walked just 9.4% of his PA and his BABIP was .382 this year which suggests he was a bit lucky.

He's also not a high draft pick which means a lot of teams didn't see this "unforseen talent". So what we have here is a guy who was described as having some similarities to Hunter Pence and I think a bunch of people have just run with it. I know Stotle likes him and I respect Stotle's opinion, but I'm not sure where these .850-.875 OPS numbers are coming from.

I think the guy is doing well, but I think people are putting a lot of expectations on him that's just not fair in my opinion.

Lets see, first off, I said that Bundy can touch 95. If he was sitting 91-93, then yes, he could touch 95. Maybe he didn't this year, but he has before. And if he was throwing as low as 87 MPH, that is, just like I said, almost 10 MPH off from where it was.

And as for Welty gaining between 50 and 75 OPS points, I get this from the idea that his patience has improved greatly between this year and last, yet he OPSed slightly less this year, partly due to him having a lower batting average and having a lower slug% this year. As his power continues to fill in, his slugging percentage will begin to increase as will his batting average. Since batting average affects OBP, his OBP will also go up assuming his discipline does not regress. If he ends up hitting back around .310 or so again next year while walking at the same rate and a slight increase in power, you are looking at a .850+ OPS. He is a very hard worker and I expect him to have a mini breakout year next season......

Furthermore, the comparison to Hunter Pence that he was given was apparently derived from him having a monster arm, both are very athletic and have similar intangibles on the field supposedly, while also being able to hit for both average and power with "less than ideal swing mechanics".

[Tony-OH]

Lets see, first off, I said that Bundy can touch 95. If he was sitting 91-93, then yes, he could touch 95. Maybe he didn't this year, but he has before. And if he was throwing as low as 87 MPH, that is, just like I said, almost 10 MPH off from where it was.

And as for Welty gaining between 50 and 75 OPS points, I get this from the idea that his patience has improved greatly between this year and last, yet he OPSed slightly less this year, partly due to him having a lower batting average and having a lower slug% this year. As his power continues to fill in, his slugging percentage will begin to increase as will his batting average. Since batting average affects OBP, his OBP will also go up assuming his discipline does not regress. If he ends up hitting back around .310 or so again next year while walking at the same rate and a slight increase in power, you are looking at a .850+ OPS. He is a very hard worker and I expect him to have a mini breakout year next season......

Furthermore, the comparison to Hunter Pence that he was given was apparently derived from him having a monster arm, both are very athletic and have similar intangibles on the field supposedly, while also being able to hit for both average and power with "less than ideal swing mechanics".

When was Bundy sitting 91-93? When did he touch 95? Everything I heard was he was 88-90 his senior year and touched 94 once the brace came off. you seem to take the high side of guys and think they pitch at that speed. they don't. Bundy did not drop "nearly" 10 MPH off his fastball. His normal last year was in the 90-91 range from what I heard although he could get into the 92-93 range occasionally.

As for Welty, how did his patience "improve greatly?" He struck out more. Yes, he walked more, but his walk rate the year before was putrid so yes, improving to 9% is better, but still not what you'd like to see. Either way, i doubt very much the guy puts up a .850+ OPS unless he has a seriously rare breakout season.