Who is your darkhorse to become top prep arm for 2010?

[QBsILLEST1]

Earlier in the year and even now, when someone asks who the top prep arm is for the 2010 draft, the answer is almost always either AJ Cole, or Jameson Taillon. I too fell in love with Taillon honestly, and I still do think he is a tremendous talent. But my question is, why not Covey?

I will say that of all the prep arms, I think he will be taken ahead of one of Taillon and Cole, and could very well end up being taken ahead of both. I do not do my own scouting, I just do a ton of research on the guys, and I am yet to find a true weakness on him. Baseball Beginnings considered him the "most complete HS pitcher in the 2010 draft", and it isn't hard to see why. He already has a plus fastball that can reach 96 and a power curve ball that has plus-plus potential, and according to Baseball Beginnings currently rates as a 75 on the 80 point scale. His changeup is currently ML average as well, and should be a future plus pitch. It was quoted that his changeup which is his 3rd best pitch, is better than most prep pitchers 2nd best pitch already. He at the moment has average command and has good body control and athleticism(which would lead one to think that his command should be pretty good in the ML) according to multiple sources. He apparently has some projection left in his 6'2 200 lb frame(Though not as much as Cole). His mechanics are clean from every source I have read(Baseball Beginnings, PG, BA). There really is just nothing here not to like.

So, what you have here is a pitcher IMO more complete than Matzek though you may find some who disagree. But I will take a power arm with very good command of 3 pitches that should all be atleast plus(including the plus-plus curve), clean mecanics, projection and apparent excellent coachability. What more do you want? If I am an MLB team who has a strict budget with little room for failure, I take Covey.

So this is my argument for Covey becoming the top 2010 prep pitcher. Personally, I would be thrilled if we ended up Covey. I also would be thrilled to take Whitson who IMO is pretty similar to Covey but doesn't have as good of command or as good secondaries IMO.

So, what do you guys think, who is your darkhorse candidate to become the top prep arm from the 2010 draft*.

*Top prep arm meaning not by draft position, but by most publications rankings.....

[jerios55]

Earlier in the year and even now, when someone asks who the top prep arm is for the 2010 draft, the answer is almost always either AJ Cole, or Jameson Taillon. I too fell in love with Taillon honestly, and I still do think he is a tremendous talent. But my question is, why not Covey?

I will say that of all the prep arms, I think he will be taken ahead of one of Taillon and Cole, and could very well end up being taken ahead of both. I do not do my own scouting, I just do a ton of research on the guys, and I am yet to find a true weakness on him. Baseball Beginnings considered him the "most complete HS pitcher in the 2010 draft", and it isn't hard to see why. He already has a plus fastball that can reach 96 and a power curve ball that has plus-plus potential, and according to Baseball Beginnings currently rates as a 75 on the 80 point scale. His changeup is currently ML average as well, and should be a future plus pitch. It was quoted that his changeup which is his 3rd best pitch, is better than most prep pitchers 2nd best pitch already. He at the moment has average command and has good body control and athleticism(which would lead one to think that his command should be pretty good in the ML) according to multiple sources. He apparently has some projection left in his 6'2 200 lb frame(Though not as much as Cole). His mechanics are clean from every source I have read(Baseball Beginnings, PG, BA). There really is just nothing here not to like.

So, what you have here is a pitcher IMO more complete than Matzek though you may find some who disagree. But I will take a power arm with very good command of 3 pitches that should all be atleast plus(including the plus-plus curve), clean mecanics, projection and apparent excellent coachability. What more do you want? If I am an MLB team who has a strict budget with little room for failure, I take Covey.

So this is my argument for Covey becoming the top 2010 prep pitcher. Personally, I would be thrilled if we ended up Covey. I also would be thrilled to take Whitson who IMO is pretty similar to Covey but doesn't have as good of command or as good secondaries IMO.

So, what do you guys think, who is your darkhorse candidate to become the top prep arm from the 2010 draft*.

*Top prep arm meaning not by draft position, but by most publications rankings.....

I just read someone talking about Covey making a Hobgood-type jump in the boards come draft time. If he does start to jump I wonder if the O's could make a "signability" pick again with Covey and go for a bunch more overslot signings. At this point Taillon is still my first choice.

[MiLFanatic]

I just read someone talking about Covey making a Hobgood-type jump in the boards come draft time. If he does start to jump I wonder if the O's could make a "signability" pick again with Covey and go for a bunch more overslot signings. At this point Taillon is still my first choice.

Well, I dunno if it was the thread Greg and I were just discussing this issue, but one thing to realize is that Covey is rated higher than Hobgood was at this point last year, and he is a more well known arm. Last year, it was Matzek, Purke, Turner, Miller, Wheeler. Then, the 2nd tier consisted of Skaggs, C.James and Hobgood etc. Hobgood went from last year at this time not really being in the upper 1st round radar until the weeks leading to the draft.

Covey just made a great showing in Jupiter not to long ago, and he boosted his stock there big time. But, even before that, I have regarded him as a 1st tier prep arm for most of the summer. IMO he has the 2nd best current stuff behind Taillon. Good low to mid 90 fastball. Excellent curve ball(best in class) with tremendous command of this pitch, and he has what was called a "surprisingly refined" changeup which I have seen already graded out to ML average and it too projects as a plus pitch. So, comparing him to Hobgood, I would honestly say Hobby's stuff is a tick behind Covey's. Most expect Hobgood to pitch in the low 90's even though in HS he was touching 95/96 in the last few games of the season. Covey OTOH sits comfortably in the low 90's, as he has all summer and touched 95/96. Basically I feel more comfortable saying that Covey can top out in the mid 90's than Hobgood since he has sustained it for a good bit of time now. Now, the curveball was what made Hobgood pretty special, he was said to have the best downer in the 09 class. Well Covey's is similarly good, but he has as mentioned above amazing command of this pitch. This is what sets him appart from Hobgood and others in the class. He can dig it in the dirt if he has to, or he can hammer it down on the outside corner for a strike. He really knows how to execute that pitch. Also as mentioned above, Covey has a very good changeup for a prep arm. This pitch also is better than Hobgood's was at the time of being drafted....

So, as you can see, atleast IMO Covey's stuff is better than Hobby's was and Covey's command is better. He has a large muscular frame, but not as big as Hobgood. BUT, at 1:3, we still may be able to get Covey at slot. Right now, he is ranked by most between 3rd and 4th best prep arm by most publications. Depending on how he does in the Spring, and where his stock goes and what his demands end up being, he could be a similar case to Hobgood, but he will be a better prospect. If he expects to go somewhere between #9 and 11 on draft day, but JJ talks to him and asks if he draft him at #3 overall if he will take slot or very close to it, he may do it. I would be much happier with Covey in this system than I was when we initially drafted Hobgood(though I am happier now).

With that said, Covey I don't think would bring to this system the same thing Taillon would. Taillon is a legit #1 type starter in the making IMO, he will make our system slightly better than just about any other arm in the draft would.

[Stotle]

I just read someone talking about Covey making a Hobgood-type jump in the boards come draft time. If he does start to jump I wonder if the O's could make a "signability" pick again with Covey and go for a bunch more overslot signings. At this point Taillon is still my first choice.

He's already jumped up the media boards, which means he's getting a lot of attention within the scouting community. I don't see him as a darkhorse at all. I also think there's some Covey-hype elevating his status, but that's fine. Things have a way of sorting themselves out by draft day. He definitely has a good FB/CB combo. I definitely don't think his change is ML average right now, and his control hasn't been excellent, let alone his command, the times I saw him throw. But he's a nice arm with a strong tool set and I certainly could see him right up there as one of the top prep arms in the '10 class come June.

[jerios55]

Well, I dunno if it was the thread Greg and I were just discussing this issue, but one thing to realize is that Covey is rated higher than Hobgood was at this point last year, and he is a more well known arm. Last year, it was Matzek, Purke, Turner, Miller, Wheeler. Then, the 2nd tier consisted of Skaggs, C.James and Hobgood etc. Hobgood went from last year at this time not really being in the upper 1st round radar until the weeks leading to the draft.

Covey just made a great showing in Jupiter not to long ago, and he boosted his stock there big time. But, even before that, I have regarded him as a 1st tier prep arm for most of the summer. IMO he has the 2nd best current stuff behind Taillon. Good low to mid 90 fastball. Excellent curve ball(best in class) with tremendous command of this pitch, and he has what was called a "surprisingly refined" changeup which I have seen already graded out to ML average and it too projects as a plus pitch. So, comparing him to Hobgood, I would honestly say Hobby's stuff is a tick behind Covey's. Most expect Hobgood to pitch in the low 90's even though in HS he was touching 95/96 in the last few games of the season. Covey OTOH sits comfortably in the low 90's, as he has all summer and touched 95/96. Basically I feel more comfortable saying that Covey can top out in the mid 90's than Hobgood since he has sustained it for a good bit of time now. Now, the curveball was what made Hobgood pretty special, he was said to have the best downer in the 09 class. Well Covey's is similarly good, but he has as mentioned above amazing command of this pitch. This is what sets him appart from Hobgood and others in the class. He can dig it in the dirt if he has to, or he can hammer it down on the outside corner for a strike. He really knows how to execute that pitch. Also as mentioned above, Covey has a very good changeup for a prep arm. This pitch also is better than Hobgood's was at the time of being drafted....

So, as you can see, atleast IMO Covey's stuff is better than Hobby's was and Covey's command is better. He has a large muscular frame, but not as big as Hobgood. BUT, at 1:3, we still may be able to get Covey at slot. Right now, he is ranked by most between 3rd and 4th best prep arm by most publications. Depending on how he does in the Spring, and where his stock goes and what his demands end up being, he could be a similar case to Hobgood, but he will be a better prospect. If he expects to go somewhere between #9 and 11 on draft day, but JJ talks to him and asks if he draft him at #3 overall if he will take slot or very close to it, he may do it. I would be much happier with Covey in this system than I was when we initially drafted Hobgood(though I am happier now).

With that said, Covey I don't think would bring to this system the same thing Taillon would. Taillon is a legit #1 type starter in the making IMO, he will make our system slightly better than just about any other arm in the draft would.

This is all I meant by the comparison, I wasn't trying to compare the pitchers at all. I hadn't heard much about Hobgood before the O's picked him last year (the Hangout is slowly helping me get more knowledgeable). What I have seen so far is that Covey is a mid-1st guy based on early projections, making a slot signing at 1.3 a higher possiblility (if the O's went that way). As mentioned Taillion is still my first pick, based on reading, but based on this most recent draft, I was thinking of how the O's might see things.

[MiLFanatic]

This is all I meant by the comparison, I wasn't trying to compare the pitchers at all. I hadn't heard much about Hobgood before the O's picked him last year (the Hangout is slowly helping me get more knowledgeable). What I have seen so far is that Covey is a mid-1st guy based on early projections, making a slot signing at 1.3 a higher possiblility (if the O's went that way). As mentioned Taillion is still my first pick, based on reading, but based on this most recent draft, I was thinking of how the O's might see things.

Yes, Covey was originally labeled a mid 1st rounder, but after finishing up the circuits very strong, he boosted his stock. And most publications don't come up with these rankings every month or so, but IMO Covey has boosted his stock slightly beyond mid 1st rounder at this point. To me right now he is a top 10 guy at this point and on the rise(could make it higher). On Greg's site, he had Whitson at #5, and Covey is IMO atleast an equal talent.

And I agree, Taillon is my #1 choice right now, but regardless of what happens, we will have some very very very strong prospects to choose from at 1:3.