If Harper falls to #3, do we jump on it?

[GoldGlove21]

Yeah... the HS Crop looks solid, especially in pitching, although the hitters have a few kids that strike me as potential studs. Outside of Harper, I am particularly high on Nick Castellanos (3B) and Manny Machado (SS), with Indiana SS Justin O'Connor rising up as well.

Among the pitchers, Jameson Taillon stands out to me, but Dylan Covey, DeAndre Smelter, A.J. Cole and Karsten Whitson could all challenge for a Top Ten position.

One thing I am fairly certain on is that I would like to see a few impact position players added to our minor league system. I really like what I hear about Taillon, but I would be very happy to have Harper. Who knows, by 2014 we may need Harper to take over for Wieters who may not want to extend; maybe we would need to trade him for the type of package that Texas for for Tex.

Drafting player is such an inexact process that the guy you are the most sold on becoming an actual major league contributor is the guy you should take IMO. I do not think signing dollars should be concern for the Orioles as they are still in the rebuilding mode to some extent. They have enough pitching to take a risk of the guy with the most upside, but it would be really nice if that guy was a guy like Harper.

[Maverick2143]

Shooting from the hip here...

How would the new CBA effect Harper? If they included a draft slotting system would the 2010 draft be his only chance for a huge payday? If so, wouldn't that give the team drafting him a good bit of leverage.

ie. The Orioles could say you may want 15 million, but our highest offer 7.5 million. Take it or you can go back into the draft and get slotted at 4.5million next year.

[Stotle]

Shooting from the hip here...

How would the new CBA effect Harper? If they included a draft slotting system would the 2010 draft be his only chance for a huge payday? If so, wouldn't that give the team drafting him a good bit of leverage.

ie. The Orioles could say you may want 15 million, but our highest offer 7.5 million. Take it or you can go back into the draft and get slotted at 4.5million next year.

Maybe, but no one really knows effect the CBA will end-up having on the draft. What if it's a pooled amount a team can distribute across its picks as it sees fit? What if they punt on revising the draft?

I think the negotiating tactic would be tough to pull off with no real idea as to what's going to shake out. I wouldn't waste my pick on Harper unless I was willing to spend the $10-12M it could take to sign him.

[DocJJ]

Many feel it's a pipe dream to think Harper won't be picked before our turn. I suppose that might be true. I just thought that maybe the Nats will pass because they just broke the bank on a Boras client this past year, who also happened to be one of the most hyped players ever in the history of the game, so maybe they'd want to pass on Harper.

And the Pirates passed up Wieters who fell to us at #4, so you never know what they might do too.

I think it's a longshot, especially if he lights up the scoreboards in Juco...

...but one can dream...!

[Maverick2143]

Maybe, but no one really knows effect the CBA will end-up having on the draft. What if it's a pooled amount a team can distribute across its picks as it sees fit? What if they punt on revising the draft?

I think the negotiating tactic would be tough to pull off with no real idea as to what's going to shake out. I wouldn't waste my pick on Harper unless I was willing to spend the $10-12M it could take to sign him.

When are the CBA negotiations? I am assuming they are sometime after the draft.

[Stotle]

Many feel it's a pipe dream to think Harper won't be picked before our turn. I suppose that might be true. I just thought that maybe the Nats will pass because they just broke the bank on a Boras client this past year, who also happened to be one of the most hyped players ever in the history of the game, so maybe they'd want to pass on Harper.

And the Pirates passed up Wieters who fell to us at #4, so you never know what they might do too.

I think it's a longshot, especially if he lights up the scoreboards in Juco...

...but one can dream...!

I think it's possible he drops, but that it would be because they want the SP (Ranaudo/Taillon). Both could have big impacts and will likely command a lot of money (I think Taillon doesn't end-up too far behind Harper -- at least not as much as most would think).

So, if you are WAS and you have three players that are all #1 overall in a given draft, I could see them leaning to Ranaudo, say, to get the quicker return and to save $3-6M to use later.

As I said earlier, I don't see PIT spending on Harper, but they HAVE been aggressive in the draft. I'd like to think BAL would jump on Harper, but I have my doubts. I don't see him slipping past KAN at this point.

[Stotle]

When are the CBA negotiations? I am assuming they are sometime after the draft.

I believe off-season, but someone please correct me. I am not sure.

[RandyM]

I think it's possible he drops, but that it would be because they want the SP (Ranaudo/Taillon). Both could have big impacts and will likely command a lot of money (I think Taillon doesn't end-up too far behind Harper -- at least not as much as most would think).

So, if you are WAS and you have three players that are all #1 overall in a given draft, I could see them leaning to Ranaudo, say, to get the quicker return and to save $3-6M to use later.

As I said earlier, I don't see PIT spending on Harper, but they HAVE been aggressive in the draft. I'd like to think BAL would jump on Harper, but I have my doubts. I don't see him slipping past KAN at this point.

Why would you think that PIT would be more inclined to pass than BAL on Harper? Yes, PIT did pass on Wieters a couple years ago, but that was with the old regime. You could say that they went with a budget pick last year with their first pick Sanchez, but the same argument could be said for BAL too. Both teams seemed to spend their money later in the draft instead. Yes, we could debate the Hobgood pick, but that is not what I want to do.

The prior year PIT spent the money for Alvarez who is a Boras client. They have been more active internationally than the O's also. What would make you think that the O's would be more willing than the PIT?

I definitely agree with your statement that Harper will probably not get past KC though. They have been more than willing to throw money recently at high picks.

I would love to hope that PIT would pass. But I feel if PIT is passing the O's will probably pass for the same reasons. If I had any gut feeling, I would think they would be more inclined if I had to choose between PIT and BAl who would be more likely to pick Harper. Just for the possible PR nightmare of the press saying you passed on another guy like Wieters for him to be picked by BAL again. Again that isn't a good reason, but might be a very slim reason to put PIT ahead.

[Stotle]

Why would you think that PIT would be more inclined to pass than BAL on Harper? Yes, PIT did pass on Wieters a couple years ago, but that was with the old regime. You could say that they went with a budget pick last year with their first pick Sanchez, but the same argument could be said for BAL too. Both teams seemed to spend their money later in the draft instead. Yes, we could debate the Hobgood pick, but that is not what I want to do.

The prior year PIT spent the money for Alvarez who is a Boras client. They have been more active internationally than the O's also. What would make you think that the O's would be more willing than the PIT?

I definitely agree with your statement that Harper will probably not get past KC though. They have been more than willing to throw money recently at high picks.

I would love to hope that PIT would pass. But I feel if PIT is passing the O's will probably pass for the same reasons. If I had any gut feeling, I would think they would be more inclined if I had to choose between PIT and BAl who would be more likely to pick Harper. Just for the possible PR nightmare of the press saying you passed on another guy like Wieters for him to be picked by BAL again. Again that isn't a good reason, but might be a very slim reason to put PIT ahead.

Could be. I think PIT is more inclined to aggressively spend throughout -- Alvarez presented very small "bust" potential, so the higher expenditure was justifiable. Even though PIT is willing to throw money around, I'm not sure they tie up that much in one HSer. They might.

[Ruzious]

I think the negotiating tactic would be tough to pull off with no real idea as to what's going to shake out. I wouldn't waste my pick on Harper unless I was willing to spend the $10-12M it could take to sign him.

I think the O's would pretty much have to draft him. There would be an overwhelming amount of criticism from the fans if Harper's there and they don't pick him - unless he falls in the eyes of national (as opposed to Nationals') scouts.

[Stotle]

I think the O's would pretty much have to draft him. There would be an overwhelming amount of criticism from the fans if Harper's there and they don't pick him - unless he falls in the eyes of national (as opposed to Nationals') scouts.

Hey, I agree he'd be my selection if I was doing the choosing for BAL. I'm just not sold on them actually pulling the trigger.

Also, I'm calling flat out BS on his value being down. I think teams are working to quell some of the hype that spun out of control last summer. We saw it last spring with Matzek after his start against Skaggs -- scouts mentioning to media sources that they have some concerns and that Matzek might not even be the best prep lefty. Riiiiiiiiiight. He'll have a solid spring, still show the 80 arm and 70/80 raw power. He may not be a catcher three years from now, but he'll still have a crazy skill-set as a 3B or, worst case, RF.