How much leeway will we give Atkins?

[Arthur_Bryant]

Having watched the vast majority of his career, the O's are going to know right out of spring training if Mr. Atkins has regained confidence at the plate. And based on last year alone, waiting for him to get it back for an entire season doesn't translate well into a 'wait and see' scenario.

That said, I have a feeling he is going to bounce back and the change of teams will serve him well. A healthy, mechanically sound Garrett Atkins can still be good for a .280/20 HR/80+ RBI season, in my humble estimation. Which is pretty much what I think the Birds are looking for until one or more of their young corners are ready.

Again, when he struggles, it will not take a world class scout to discern a comeback season isn't in the cards. So, to answer the original question, I wouldn't wait beyond 60-days if he is trying to pull everything in the universe and swings at many bad pitches.

-Don

Yeah but the O's did not sign him just to cut him or bench him. I have a feeling that their tolerance will extend through the ASG at least.

[JamesI]

Assuming he stays healthy, I expect it will be June before he loses his job if he is playing poorly.

[wildcard]

I think we have to set expectations.

On June 1st, I expect Atkins will have 200 AB, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 233/302/394/696

while batting 8th.

In other words he will be on a 24 HR pace with 90 RBI inspite of having poor averages. If he is doing that or better I will be already with it. If he is doing worse, then its time for him to go.

[wildcard]

On a pace for 90 RBI's hitting out of the 8th spot with a .695 OPS and a .233 AVG? That would have to be one hell of a lineup in front of him.

I am hoping it is a hell of a lineup. What I believe about Atkins is that he hits with runners in scoring position. He also is good at making productive outs that drive in runs.

[trk001]

If he doesn't hit a homerun in his first plate appearance, he is dead to me.

[olehippi]

I, for one....and maybe the only one ....am at a loss as to why so many people are down on Atkins. For 4 years, from 2005 - 2008, Atkins was one of the most productive hitters in the NL. Then he has ONE bad season….and he suddenly becomes a bum? Obviously, something happened to his swing and he stopped hitting. The simple fact is, mechanical problems can be fixed, and despite what other think, I believe that Terry Crowley can fixed it. (see Pie).

So instead of complaining about the O’s signing a relatively low-cost, potentially high return one year fill-in player -- and who IMO is just as likely to exceed expectations as be a complete flop -- perhaps we should concentrate on something really important for the future of the O‘s…..like the development of our young pitching staff.

[TyCobb]

I think we will be able to see 1 month in whether or not he is going to produce enough to warrant a starting position.

Atkins is going to change his swing. He may start out terrible in spring, but after a month of ABs, if he doesn't have a clue at the plate and we have a better option, then bench/trade/cut him.

My guess is AM thinks there is a good chance Atkins swing can be fixed by the Crow or he won't have given him 4.5 million guarantee and 5 million if he plays the full season (600 PA).

[Mackus]

I think it will depend on how well Snyder is doing at AAA.

The better Snyder does, the more Atkins needs to do to hold his spot down, and the sooner he'll eventually lose it no matter how well he's doing.

[Mackus]

I, for one....and maybe the only one ....am at a loss as to why so many people are down on Atkins. For 4 years, from 2005 - 2008, Atkins was one of the most productive hitters in the NL. Then he has ONE bad season….and he suddenly becomes a bum? Obviously, something happened to his swing and he stopped hitting. The simple fact is, mechanical problems can be fixed, and despite what other think, I believe that Terry Crowley can fixed it. (see Pie).

So instead of complaining about the O’s signing a relatively low-cost, potentially high return one year fill-in player -- and who IMO is just as likely to exceed expectations as be a complete flop -- perhaps we should concentrate on something really important for the future of the O‘s…..like the development of our young pitching staff.

He has had far more than just ONE bad year.

RZNJ explained, but you really need to reconsider how you look at statistics if you think that he has been just a fine player for a 1B away from Coors field for all but last year.

[Frobby]

I will be surprised to see anything "drastic" happen to Atkins before July.

I bet if he has a 720-740ish OPS, he stays...That would be terrible but the Orioles will keep him.

I think that is probably correct, it probably takes < .700 for them to pull the plug on their experiment.

[Sports Guy]

I believe Drungo showed Atkins park neutral stats and even in atkins big years in the NL, he still would have been a below average first baseman when taking him out of Coors.

[Sports Guy]

I think that is probably correct, it probably takes < .700 for them to pull the plug on their experiment.

Yea...its going to take a lot worse than just being a below average first baseman.

[Satyr3206]

Looks like Atkins is the whipping boy this year.

And all this before one ST at-bat.:laughlol:

[Sports Guy]

I personally believe it would be foolish to think that Atkins can not achieve a 780-800 OPS this year...i don't expect it but I certainly believe it is possible.

My problem with his signing is that is likely the best case scenario, which would likely result in him being a below average first baseman unless he is incredible defensively.

OTOH, I think Scott gives us an 820+ OPS and his upside is higher.

In other words, we signed a worse player to play a position where he is still extremely likely to be below average, even if he is improved this year and on top of that, you are taking at bats away from Pie, who could be a big part of the future.

What is the real upside here? It just doesn't really exist.

Everything about the Atkins signing says it was a poor move...and it will still be a poor move even if he has a 790 OPS this year...Not because he won't be worth his contract but because we just had smarter and more sensible options in house.

[Mackus]

Yea...its going to take a lot worse than just being a below average first baseman.

I actually won't mind that much if he's just "below average". I'm very worried that he'll be equally as bad as Huff ended up being last year, which obviously goes way past "below average" and into the "worst 1B in the sport" territory.