The Great Tillman Debate

[TyCobb]

Guthrie's got a proven track record of good command. Tillman and Mickolio, even in the minors, do not.

Guthrie won't have a super long leash if he struggles, but there is no credible argument that can be made for him not starting the year in the rotation.

Tillman's 2.42 BB/9 in AAA last year is good enough especially for a strike out guy.

DT probably isn't going to give Guts anything less than 10 starts before he looks to move him. There goes 1/3 of the MLB experience for Tillman.

[Babypowder]

Guthrie's got a proven track record of good command. Tillman and Mickolio, even in the minors, do not.

Guthrie won't have a super long leash if he struggles, but there is no credible argument that can be made for him not starting the year in the rotation.

Tillman had a 2.4 BB/9 in AAA last year and 3.3 in the majors. Walks weren't a problem.

Guthrie is quickly building a track record of getting ripped, that leash better be short if we are going to waste Tillman's development time watching him continue to struggle. If this team is going to be good soon, Chris Tillman will be a large part of that. Jeremy Guthrie will not.

[Lucky Jim]

Tillman's 2.42 BB/9 in AAA last year is good enough especially for a strike out guy.

DT probably isn't going to give Guts anything less than 10 starts before he looks to move him. There goes 1/3 of the MLB experience for Tillman.

Tillman had a 2.4 BB/9 in AAA last year and 3.3 in the majors. Walks weren't a problem.

Guthrie is quickly building a track record of getting ripped, that leash better be short if we are going to waste Tillman's development time watching him continue to struggle. If this team is going to be good soon, Chris Tillman will be a large part of that. Jeremy Guthrie will not.

Command remained a problem. He throws strikes, just not where he needs to throw strikes.

[mweb]

If BAL wants to give Hernandez a shot at sticking as a starter, it really is bumping-up against now-or-never territory. Not because of his age, but Arrieta, Britton and Erbe could each be in line for a shot over the season or so. Tillman is certainly going to get an extended opportunity at some point. Matusz and Bergie appear to be set unless they fall off a figurative cliff.

So, while I love Tillman's potential, I can't say it's a huge deal if he starts at AAA. If Hernandez has indeed made the changes he needs to in order to potentially succeed as a starter, give him the shot now. It may be his last true shot if the arms behind him continue to progress.

Yeah, this is basically what I said earlier. If you give him a shot now, maybe he shows he is a good starter, and that really helps us going forward. I don't see that as being a negative for Tillman's development either.

If DH struggles, then fine, we'd know that his role should be in relief and Tillman can take his spot assuming he hasn't already been promoted to replace someone else.

I guess I'm failing to see the big negative here, yet I do see a potential big positive.

SG is saying this move shows a lack of long-term thinking, well I think the exact opposite, this shows long-term thinking very nicely. Gives us the most upside in the rotation long-term since DH can emerge as a good starter and Tillman will get his shot soon enough anyway.

[mweb]

There is some validity to this(leave it up to you to provide that..thanks)...My issue is how long are you keeping Tillman down and what is he going to get out of AAA?

Except I already said basically the same thing.

[Babypowder]

Command remained a problem. He throws strikes, just not where he needs to throw strikes.

And Guthrie has been intentionally throwing meatballs then?

[backwardsk]

So, are you ready to admit that the Orioles may not have made a "terrible decision?"

I think this shows the Orioles are rewarding pitchers who work on their short comings and show up in camp and prove they've taken steps to shore those up.

Whether David can continue to do this remains to be seen, but it's nice to see a young man work hard and be given that opportunity.

At the same time, I think Tillman pitched his way off the team with the walks. Had Tillman pitched better, he'd still be on the team but the Orioles have drawn a line in the sand that with the demotions of Tillman and Mickolio, and that's "throw strikes or come back when you can."

I missed the demotion of Mickolio. Was this announced today? In the broadcast they said he may go on the DL. In any case, would it be correct to assume that Albers and Berken will start the season in BAL's pen?

[Lucky Jim]

And Guthrie has been intentionally throwing meatballs then?

What do you mean? What does Guthrie have to do w/ Tillman's command?

[mweb]

But Tillman's command has been better, at a younger age, than DH.

So, doesn't that apply as well?

What if the Orioles do a complete 180 and say, Tillman is here and DH is sent down. What is the reaction then? Is that reaction, well that's ok because DH has to learn his new pitch and get better command? Or is it outrage that they kept the better pitcher over the guy pitching better right now?

To your first question, command and performance at certain ages are of great importance in terms of who's the better prospect. However, I don't think that's relevant as to who makes the team right now. It's about who has better command and performance and readyness right now. It's not like this is going to preclude Tillman from getting a fair shot.

To the second part, better pitcher to start the season is very questionable imo. Better prospect is not.

[TyCobb]

What do you mean? What does Guthrie have to do w/ Tillman's command?

Guts command has been worse.

[Lucky Jim]

Guts command has been worst than Tillmans.

But so what? The point here is to get Tillman ready to be successful at the MLB level. Not to outduel Guthrie.

[mweb]

If Guthrie rights the ship, he is the trade bait, not Tillman.

Now, the Orioles could look to move a guy like Tillman if they can get some upper echelon young star offensive player but I think that would be the case anyway.

I concur. No reason to look to deal Tillman just because Hernandez shows he can be a good starter and Guthrie pitches well. Millwood is only signed through this year and Guthrie would still be much less attractive to us long-term than Tillman.

But sure, consider trading him or anyone else depending on the return.

[Stotle]

Maybe everyone knows this, but I'm not seeing it in the general discussion. There is a chance that Tillman isn't going to ever be a command guy, and command isn't something that can always be "sorted out". It also isn't something that necessarily prevents a pitcher from being a successful Major Leaguer if the quality of stuff is there (which it is for Tillman).

[Babypowder]

But so what? The point here is to get Tillman ready to be successful at the MLB level. Not to outduel Guthrie.

I don't see how Tillman will develop dominating AAA hitters again. He needs to be facing major league hitters.

My original response was to someone saying Guthrie has a proven track record of command while Tillman does not, I was pointing out that that isn't exactly true.

[TyCobb]

But so what? The point here is to get Tillman ready to be successful at the MLB level. Not to outduel Guthrie.

Oh. I thought this was the year were the games mattered.

I would have thought they have given the 5 starting spots to the best 5 starters.

Tillman is going to embarrass AAA hitters until DT takes one of the 5 starters out of that role.

I just hope Tillman learns something in his time at AAA (at least they can manage his IP count so he hits 185 ips total). Unfortunately, I don't think Tillman is going to get anything in return from facing AAA talent.