The Great Tillman Debate

[Stotle]

There is some validity to this(leave it up to you to provide that..thanks)...My issue is how long are you keeping Tillman down and what is he going to get out of AAA?

Yeah, to me that is the toughest question. I guess I'd want to see what Tillman does at AAA over 4-5 starts. If he's simply not being challenged, I don't know how long you leave him there. Mid-May would probably be my personal limit. Of course, it's also somewhat dependent on how the BAL staff fares.

I have no issue with making Tillman a long arm in the pen if the rest of the rotation all looks good for the first month or so (as unlikely as that is), so long as you are getting him 4 IP a week, or so. And id want him in the rotation at some point if he is fairing well.

What you cannot do is start promoting and demoting young arms based on a month of starts. If Hernandez loses the job, BAL can't turn it into a AAA/ML yo-yo for him, Tillman, Arrieta and whoever else. I'm fine with giving Hernandez a legit shot to stick, but if Tillman proves AAA isn't the place for him (which I think he will) he shouldn't head back once he rejoins the ML team, IMO.

[RShack]

If that is his ceiling, then you're probably right. That's not worth deferring Tillman's development. In that case you send Hernandez to AAA and let hm wait along with Arrieta for the next opening.

But I think DH can be better than that.

Take it down by a run per game. Say, for the sake of argument, that he has the realistic potential to be a 3.75-4.00 starter... maybe Bergesen numbers. Would that merit giving him a shot right now over Tillman?

They're not halting Tillman's development. It's not like he won't be pitching. It's not like he can't fix what he needs to fix in AAA. He can work on putting the ball where he wants it at NOR. He's gonna get a bunch of ML IP this year regardless of where he starts the season. This is much ado about not much.

Personally, I think it's perfectly fine to tell CT that he needs to get better at X, Y, and Z before he gets a ML job. Some folks are acting like they're turning their back on the kid. They're not. Apparently, they told DH to improve some stuff and he did that, so he gets his chance. That's how it's supposed to work.

[AgentOrange]

Yeah, to me that is the toughest question. I guess I'd want to see what Tillman does at AAA over 4-5 starts. If he's simply not being challenged, I don't know how long you leave him there. Mid-May would probably be my personal limit. Of course, it's also somewhat dependent on how the BAL staff fares.

I have no issue with making Tillman a long arm in the pen if the rest of the rotation all looks good for the first month or so (as unlikely as that is), so long as you are getting him 4 IP a week, or so. And id want him in the rotation at some point if he is fairing well.

What you cannot do is start promoting and demoting young arms based on a month of starts. If Hernandez loses the job, BAL can't turn it into a AAA/ML yo-yo for him, Tillman, Arrieta and whoever else. I'm fine with giving Hernandez a legit shot to stick, but if Tillman proves AAA isn't the place for him (which I think he will) he shouldn't head back once he rejoins the ML team, IMO.

I have a hard time with this line of thinking. The guy has control issues that need to be ironed out in AAA. I feel like he needs to get that under control before we worry about if he is challanged or not. He put up great #'s in AAA that still may not translate well into the majors because of these issues. Harnessing his stuff with more control should be the barometer for him coming back to the major leagues, IMO.

[Sports Guy]

If that is his ceiling, then you're probably right. That's not worth deferring Tillman's development. In that case you send Hernandez to AAA and let hm wait along with Arrieta for the next opening.

But I think DH can be better than that.

Take it down by a run per game. Say, for the sake of argument, that he has the realistic potential to be a 3.75-4.00 starter... maybe Bergesen numbers. Would that merit giving him a shot right now over Tillman?

I don't think that's his ceiling...but i do think that is his likely outcome as a ML starter.

[crissfan172]

I guess AM wasn't serious when he said that the wanted to bring up our top prospects when they're ready, so they're here to stay and not have to be sent back down.

*sigh*

[Mackus]

I guess AM wasn't serious when he said that the wanted to bring up our top prospects when they're ready, so they're here to stay and not have to be sent back down.

*sigh*

Yeah you're right, they're sending Tillman down because MacPhail is a liar

[SilentJames]

I don't think that's his ceiling...but i do think that is his likely outcome as a ML starter.

honestly, this is just a very good problem to have. How good does it feel to be arguing over Tillman and Hernandez as opposed to DuBose and Riley?

[Sports Guy]

I have a hard time with this line of thinking. The guy has control issues that need to be ironed out in AAA. I feel like he needs to get that under control before we worry about if he is challanged or not. He put up great #'s in AAA that still may not translate well into the majors because of these issues. Harnessing his stuff with more control should be the barometer for him coming back to the major leagues, IMO.

But Tillman's command has been better, at a younger age, than DH.

So, doesn't that apply as well?

What if the Orioles do a complete 180 and say, Tillman is here and DH is sent down. What is the reaction then? Is that reaction, well that's ok because DH has to learn his new pitch and get better command? Or is it outrage that they kept the better pitcher over the guy pitching better right now?

[Stotle]

I have a hard time with this line of thinking. The guy has control issues that need to be ironed out in AAA. I feel like he needs to get that under control before we worry about if he is challanged or not. He put up great #'s in AAA that still may not translate well into the majors because of these issues. Harnessing his stuff with more control should be the barometer for him coming back to the major leagues, IMO.

I think you are probably getting hung up on terminology, and I have a feeling our word choice represents different concepts vis-a-vis player development.

[Sports Guy]

honestly, this is just a very good problem to have. How good does it feel to be arguing over Tillman and Hernandez as opposed to DuBose and Riley?

Riley had more upside over all of them...Couldn't stay healthy.

[AgentOrange]

I guess AM wasn't serious when he said that the wanted to bring up our top prospects when they're ready, so they're here to stay and not have to be sent back down.

*sigh*

I feel that he was serious. We have a log jam of pitching prospects. Something we have not had in years. What is the harm in giving DH his chance to prove to the Orioles that he has changed?

Why is it so hard for us to believe a guy can take what he learned last year and improve his pitches going into this season?

Tillman looked like he wasn't 100% polished, so we send him back down with things to work on. It is not like we sent Tillman down and said "Oh well, just throw innings down there until we need you". He actually has a game plan now to get back to the major leagues. There will be a spot for him when he is 100% ready in the Orioles eyes.

[crissfan172]

Yeah you're right, they're sending Tillman down because MacPhail is a liar

That's not what I'm saying. Obviously AM's a liar because they're sending him down.

[crissfan172]

I feel that he was serious. We have a log jam of pitching prospects. Something we have not had in years. What is the harm in giving DH his chance to prove to the Orioles that he has changed?

Why is it so hard for us to believe a guy can take what he learned last year and improve his pitches going into this season?

Tillman looked like he wasn't 100% polished, so we send him back down with things to work on. It is not like we sent Tillman down and said "Oh well, just throw innings down there until we need you". He actually has a game plan now to get back to the major leagues. There will be a spot for him when he is 100% ready in the Orioles eyes.

I know I know. It's just very depressing because I was really looking forward to our rotation before today. Now...it just feels like we're throwing a scrub prospect out there. Don't get me wrong...I don't mean to say that DH IS a scrub prospect at all. The disappointment just makes it feel that way for me. I'm going to take this day to mourn the loss of Tillman in the OD rotation, but come tomorrow, I will fully support David.

[Mackus]

What if the Orioles do a complete 180 and say, Tillman is here and DH is sent down. What is the reaction then? Is that reaction, well that's ok because DH has to learn his new pitch and get better command? Or is it outrage that they kept the better pitcher over the guy pitching better right now?

Why does there have to be outrage over this decision either way?

Both Hernandez and Tillman deserve shots in the rotation. Tillman has the higher upside, but Hernandez also has pretty impressive upside if he has added another pitch, has gotten his slider back, and (most importantly) if he can cut down on the pitches per inning.

I don't think either are poor choices. Hernandez is older, so it's pretty easy to argue that they should go with him, since if he doesn't put it together now, he may not ever. Its closer to a last shot for him than it is for Tillman. Also, he's pitching better right now. I don't think Tillman would struggle or have mental problems if he gets bombed for the early part of the year, but if we have another good option, then why risk that?

I won't have a problem with either way they choose to go. I think I'd prefer to see Tillman, but that's mostly based on last year. I don't think very many people here have such an informed opinion that they can really fault the Orioles for choosing Tillman over Hernandez or vice versa at this point. I know you don't and I know I certainly don't either.

To paraphrase Chris Partlow, this is one of them good problems.

[Lucky Jim]

Why does there have to be outrage over this decision either way?

Both Hernandez and Tillman deserve shots in the rotation. Tillman has the higher upside, but Hernandez also has pretty impressive upside if he has added another pitch, has gotten his slider back, and (most importantly) if he can cut down on the pitches per inning.

I don't think either are poor choices. Hernandez is older, so it's pretty easy to argue that they should go with him, since if he doesn't put it together now, he may not ever. Its closer to a last shot for him than it is for Tillman. Also, he's pitching better right now. I don't think Tillman would struggle or have mental problems if he gets bombed for the early part of the year, but if we have another good option, then why risk that?

I won't have a problem with either way they choose to go. I think I'd prefer to see Tillman, but that's mostly based on last year. I don't think very many people here have such an informed opinion that they can really fault the Orioles for choosing Tillman over Hernandez or vice versa at this point. I know you don't and I know I certainly don't either.

To paraphrase Chris Partlow, this is one of them good problems.

This is my thinking, too. My disappointment - and it was palpable - was misplaced. I thought I was disappointed in the Orioles for the decision, but in fact was simply disappointed in the fact that Tillman may not be ready. Because I want him to be ready.