The Great Tillman Debate

[mweb]

Just to point out, of the 36 pitchers in MLB with 200-or-more innings pitched last season, Guthrie had the highest ERA by almost a full run. James Shields was the next lowest, with 4.14 to Guthrie's 5.04.

Dropping it to 180 innings, there are five pitchers of the additional 22 who had a five-plus ERA. Only Braden Looper does not have an Opening Day rotation position; Carl Pavano, Ricky Nolasco, Mike Pelfry and Livan Hernandez all have jobs.

Just throwing out some information.

He's much better than that though and should rebound nicely this year.

[Icterus galbula]

He's much better than that though and should rebound nicely this year.

Indeed. His name does not belong in that group. Real solid peripherals, ERA took a hit for an unlucky stretch in what I believe was May. He'll be a top 20 pitcher in the NL this year.

[eddie83]

Brad Penny got shelled in Boston last year and St Louis gave him $7.5 million this year. I know his overall career is much better but still. The Yankees basically had no 5th starter last year. I would be pleasantly suprised if the Orioles have 5 better starters in the organization this moment or later in the year this season than Guthrie.

I also think his innings might of been shaved off slightly but I doubt to much last year even if he was pitching on a better team. At most 10-20 innings. Pitching out of the AL East would lower that ERA some anyway. He has alot of value. Unless of course his career is headed straight downhill.

[Skeletor]

Because I am at work and can't look this up, and I am not good at doing this sort of thing either, can someone say what Guthrie's ERA would have been without any runners scoring that he had when he left the game? and what it would be if an average number would have scored? The BP was bad last year and I would be interested how much if any his ERA took a hit because of that.

Guthrie generally stunk the joint up in the first inning last year and then would settle down. His ERA was 7.99 in the first inning and, while he had a couple other innings where his ERA was just over 5, he was generally solid 2nd through 7th innings. He gave up a lot of freaking home runs, though.

[EL_Coyote]

Cutting into the nasty HR totals from last year would go a long way toward posters here gaining some more confidence in him. Personally I don't get why many in this thread see him as bereft of value. Yeah, it was a tough year. Still though, the guy was the only veteran in the Rotation from start to finish.

[square634]

Guthrie generally stunk the joint up in the first inning last year and then would settle down. His ERA was 7.99 in the first inning and, while he had a couple other innings where his ERA was just over 5, he was generally solid 2nd through 7th innings. He gave up a lot of freaking home runs, though.

I bet that it is a general pattern that a starting pitcher's ERA will be highest in the early innings and lowest in the middle-to-late innings. On days where a pitcher is particularly awful, he doesn't necessarily reach or finish the middle innings, so his stats in those innings are unaffected. In the very late innings, he may be tired and is also facing a lineup for a third or fourth time, but on the other hand a pitcher usually doesn't reach the late innings unless he is doing well. I wonder what the averages are across the leage?

[Skeletor]

I bet that it is a general pattern that a starting pitcher's ERA will be highest in the early innings and higher in the middle-to-late innings. On days where a pitcher is particularly awful, he doesn't necessarily reach or finish the middle innings, so his stats in those innings are unaffected. In the very late innings, he may be tired and is also facing a lineup for a third or fourth time, but on the other hand a pitcher usually doesn't reach the late innings unless he is doing well. I wonder what the averages are across the leage?

You might be right about the league average (I'm not sure where to find that), but this wasn't the case with Guthrie. Here are his IP totals by inning:

32.2

32.0

31.1

31.0

30.1

25.0

14.2

3.0

Actually, here are the league's pitching splits for last year: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=p&lg=AL&year=2009

[square634]

You might be right about the league average (I'm not sure where to find that), but this wasn't the case with Guthrie. Here are his IP totals by inning:

32.2

32.0

31.1

31.0

30.1

25.0

14.2

3.0

Well based on those numbers, there was an outing in which Guthrie only lasted 2/3 of an inning. I would bet that he gave up as many as 6 runs in that time before he was pulled, which would by itself inflate his ERA in the first inning by about 1.69.

Then it looks like there was another outing that lasted only 2 2/3 innings, which probably also didn't go well.

I guess the point I was trying to make is that every time a pitcher struggles, he will pitch in the early innings, and then the number of innings he pitches in the later innings will be strongly correlated with his effectiveness on a given night.

EDIT: Those stats indicate that I am dead wrong and that leaguewide the first and second inning ERAs were nearly identical. Shows you what I know.

[Sports Guy]

Cutting into the nasty HR totals from last year would go a long way toward posters here gaining some more confidence in him. Personally I don't get why many in this thread see him as bereft of value. Yeah, it was a tough year. Still though, the guy was the only veteran in the Rotation from start to finish.

The homers aren't good but its his other peripherals that have me worried...His K rate is awful...His BB rate is still pretty good and that's a good thing but with that K rate, his BB rate can;t get much worse.

He is going to give up flyballs..People on here have always talked about him being a GB pitcher and he really isn't....Also, when you actually watch him, you see inconsistent secondary stuff, which doesn't bode well when you are "wild in the strike zone"....I am not sure why so many people are against the concept that Guthrie could be close to being done as a starter.

RZ has pointed out several times that his decline in pitching started with shoulder injury...Maybe its just not as strong anymore.

He has always had a bit of an erratic delivery...Easy to throw off his mechanics.

Now, he may still be able to give us what he did last year...In fact, I think he likely will....But he also shouldn't get much of a chance either.

[Frobby]

The homers aren't good but its his other peripherals that have me worried...His K rate is awful...His BB rate is still pretty good and that's a good thing but with that K rate, his BB rate can;t get much worse.

He is going to give up flyballs..People on here have always talked about him being a GB pitcher and he really isn't....Also, when you actually watch him, you see inconsistent secondary stuff, which doesn't bode well when you are "wild in the strike zone"....I am not sure why so many people are against the concept that Guthrie could be close to being done as a starter.

RZ has pointed out several times that his decline in pitching started with shoulder injury...Maybe its just not as strong anymore.

He has always had a bit of an erratic delivery...Easy to throw off his mechanics.

Now, he may still be able to give us what he did last year...In fact, I think he likely will....But he also shouldn't get much of a chance either.

I'm not going to predict how Guthrie will do this year; I simply don't know. Regarding whether he is a GB pitcher, his GB/FB ratio was much better in 2007 (.78) and 2008 (.81) than it was in 2009 (.59). Fewer K's and many more fly balls is a recipe for trouble. I feel Guthrie was much better at keeping the ball consistently down in the strike zone in his two successful years, and that will be the key to his success or failure this year. I can't say spring training has made me optimistic, but on the other hand, I think Guts has earned the right to go 8 starts or so into the season before the O's decide whether to pull the plug.

[Sports Guy]

I'm not going to predict how Guthrie will do this year; I simply don't know. Regarding whether he is a GB pitcher, his GB/FB ratio was much better in 2007 (.78) and 2008 (.81) than it was in 2009 (.59). Fewer K's and many more fly balls is a recipe for trouble. I feel Guthrie was much better at keeping the ball consistently down in the strike zone in his two successful years, and that will be the key to his success or failure this year. I can't say spring training has made me optimistic, but on the other hand, I think Guts has earned the right to go 8 starts or so into the season before the O's decide whether to pull the plug.

If his first 5 starts give us 19 IP, an ERA of 7 and poor peripherals, do you think he should continue to start?

[EL_Coyote]

If his first 5 starts give us 19 IP, an ERA of 7 and poor peripherals, do you think he should continue to start?

I am a Jeremy Guthrie supporter. However if after 5 GS and he is clearly ineffective... I would ask how are our other options looking? Are they ready? What kind of improvement would we really be looking at.

It's alright to not want Guthrie back now... and not because of tonight's game. However I just have to pull for the one standing guy from start to finish last year.

[amateurfan]

Well, almost every piece of "second hand info" said he is likely to be in the pen...yes, that's where I get a lot of that from...From respected sources. Then, when I saw him pitch last year, i saw exactly what the reports said...Spotty command, inconsistent secondary pitches, inability to go deep into games, etc....if you didn't see those things, that's on you but that's exactkly what happened.

And again, you don't seem to understand how important age is.

So then you think DT was lying to the media?

Well, you couldn't be more wrong..but thanks for your input.

First, I wish I could have responded earlier. It would have been more timely.

Well, I would appreciate learning something. You never exhibited any knowledge of how or why age is important in assessing a prospect. It's definitely important, you just haven't shown that you understand its importance, or how to use it in assessing a prospect.

I've spent the last nine years studying development and assessing it in individuals from ages 13 through the traditional undergraduate, but I'm sure you're correct that I don't know how important age is.

The second part in bold doesn't work with the opening of your post. The two assertions contradict each other.

[Sports Guy]

First, I wish I could have responded earlier. It would have been more timely.

Well, I would appreciate learning something. You never exhibited any knowledge of how or why age is important in assessing a prospect. It's definitely important, you just haven't shown that you understand its importance, or how to use it in assessing a prospect.

I've spent the last nine years studying development and assessing it in individuals from ages 13 through the traditional undergraduate, but I'm sure you're correct that I don't know how important age is.

The second part in bold doesn't work with the opening of your post. The two assertions contradict each other.

Its quite simple...Tillman has been much better than DH at the same levels, but 3 years younger. That is huge.

DH basically has to re-make himself, at age 25, to be a successful ML starter...This is something that even he acknowledges.

So, how likely is that? I don't know but I can tell you that it is much more likely if he was 22. That's not to say it can't happen..its just not likely.

That's common sense.

[amateurfan]

Its quite simple...Tillman has been much better than DH at the same levels, but 3 years younger. That is huge.

DH basically has to re-make himself, at age 25, to be a successful ML starter...This is something that even he acknowledges.

So, how likely is that? I don't know but I can tell you that it is much more likely if he was 22. That's not to say it can't happen..its just not likely.

That's common sense.

So you haven't actually thought about development and age themselves. You're operating within a paradigm of younger = better. You don't know anything about age/development at all.

The assumptions you have based on ages 22 and 25 are unfounded.

The part about DH having to reinvent himself is not based on anything.

Common sense is a terrible defense, and a terrible system of thought to operate within.