The Great Tillman Debate

[Frobby]

Throw-away line from Roch:

Trembley said he might announce his starting rotation on Monday, adding that it won't include any surprises.

http://masnsports.com/2010/03/setback-for-koji.html

So it's gotta be Millwood, Guthrie, Matusz, Bergesen, Tillman....right?

[Sports Guy]

Better be.....

[Anonymous]

DH and Berken automatically to Norfolk, or possibly still in the mix for relief (especially if Koji is DLed)?

[MikeAD]

I would like DH to remain with the team in some capacity, but if him going to Norfolk helps him crack the rotation or SU/Closer role for us, then so be it. I hope hes first in line to take a spot when we trade one of Guthrie/Millwood.

[crissfan172]

It's been Tillman since July. If Hernandez had been allowed in this rotation, I might have cried.

[byrdz]

It's been Tillman since July. If Hernandez had been allowed in this rotation, I might have cried.

Why? His ST peripheral numbers are better than Tillman's at this point.

DH - 10 K's, 1 BB

CT - 6 K's, 5 BB's

[EL_Coyote]

Just to add my own point of view. I do hope and expect it to be Chris Tillman. However I really hope that David Hernandez is sent to Norfolk and kept as a potential SP. The team will likely need more depth than just one call up can provide this season. Chances are someone will hit the Disabled List at some point and if it's more than one... In other words, I am pulling for DH.

[byrdz]

Just to add my own point of view. I do hope and expect it to be Chris Tillman. However I really hope that David Hernandez is sent to Norfolk and kept as a potential SP. The team will likely need more depth than just one call up can provide this season. Chances are someone will hit the Disabled List at some point and if it's more than one... In other words, I am pulling for DH.

My thoughts exactly.

[Sports Guy]

Why? His ST peripheral numbers are better than Tillman's at this point.

DH - 10 K's, 1 BB

CT - 6 K's, 5 BB's

Tillman has been better in the minors at a much younger age...he has more upside...Better stuff.

[Frobby]

Tillman has been better in the minors at a much younger age...he has more upside...Better stuff.

Tillman has done enough in spring training to keep the 5th spot in the rotation, but it's a good thing that Hernandez is pushing him hard. It's always good to remember that young pitchers (I still consider DH young even though he will be 25 in May) grow at different rates. Sometimes they stagnate for a year, other times they develop a new pitch over the winter and come back improved. Just look at where Bergesen stood in the pecking order at the end of the 2008 season vs. now. So, I can imagine a scenario where DH is ready to come in and be a good back-end starter, whereas Tillman isn't, even though Tillman still figures to develop into a possible no. 1-2 eventually.

Tillman is having an interesting night tonight, 2 very easy innings (1st and 4th) and two innings where he really struggled and allowed a ton of runners but only allowed one run. He's up around 80 pitches after 4 innings. It's the kind of game that reminds you of how much potential he has, but how much more polish he still needs.

[Sports Guy]

Tillman has done enough in spring training to keep the 5th spot in the rotation, but it's a good thing that Hernandez is pushing him hard. It's always good to remember that young pitchers (I still consider DH young even though he will be 25 in May) grow at different rates. Sometimes they stagnate for a year, other times they develop a new pitch over the winter and come back improved. Just look at where Bergesen stood in the pecking order at the end of the 2008 season vs. now. So, I can imagine a scenario where DH is ready to come in and be a good back-end starter, whereas Tillman isn't, even though Tillman still figures to develop into a possible no. 1-2 eventually.

Tillman is having an interesting night tonight, 2 very easy innings (1st and 4th) and two innings where he really struggled and allowed a ton of runners but only allowed one run. He's up around 80 pitches after 4 innings. It's the kind of game that reminds you of how much potential he has, but how much more polish he still needs.

Hernandez may be able to develop a sinker and sort of re-invent himself but he isn't on the same level as Tillman is.

As your point out, he turns 25 soon...No, that isn't old but it is old to think he will all of sudden turn his career around and become something that most people don't think he is...a solid starter.

Do I think DH could be a 5ish ERA, 150 IP guy? Yes I do...Is that good enough for the back of the rotation? Sure.

But where is he on the pecking order? Matusz, Tillman, BB, Arrieta, Britton..Maybe he is next...MAYBE.

Do I want DH in the rotation over Guthrie? You bet I do. The Orioles missed the boat on dealing Guthrie as they were so worried with the state of the rotation and now, they may get nothing for him. But right now, with things the way they are, Guthrie needs to be in the rotation in hopes he can produce and we can move him.

[Frobby]

Hernandez may be able to develop a sinker and sort of re-invent himself but he isn't on the same level as Tillman is.

As your point out, he turns 25 soon...No, that isn't old but it is old to think he will all of sudden turn his career around and become something that most people don't think he is...a solid starter.

Do I think DH could be a 5ish ERA, 150 IP guy? Yes I do...Is that good enough for the back of the rotation? Sure.

But where is he on the pecking order? Matusz, Tillman, BB, Arrieta, Britton..Maybe he is next...MAYBE.

Do I want DH in the rotation over Guthrie? You bet I do. The Orioles missed the boat on dealing Guthrie as they were so worried with the state of the rotation and now, they may get nothing for him. But right now, with things the way they are, Guthrie needs to be in the rotation in hopes he can produce and we can move him.

I think Hernandez's ceiling is higher than a 5 ERA, 150 IP guy. I could see him as a 4.25-4.75, 170-180 IP guy if he continues to develop. Obviously, Tillman's ceiling is much higher than that.

Hernandez managed a 5.42 ERA last year even though he wasn't striking guys out at anything near the rate he did in the mirors. The fact that he has been K'ing batters left and right this spring tells me that if he was in the rotaiton agaim this year, he'd do considerably better. I think he absorbed a lot of lessons over the winter and worked hard to improve. If we need to call upon him some time this year -- and we probably will -- I think he'll be pretty decent.

[crissfan172]

Why? His ST peripheral numbers are better than Tillman's at this point.

DH - 10 K's, 1 BB

CT - 6 K's, 5 BB's

It's pretty much what Sports Guy said. Plus, watching Hernandez pitch last year always gave me headaches because of command issues (I know...ST numbers say otherwise, but the sample size is small and walks aren't always the best indicator of command), and I don't think Hernandez has the stuff (namely his fastball) to go through an order more than once or twice. I just think Tillman gives us a better chance to win.

[Frobby]

It's pretty much what Sports Guy said. Plus, watching Hernandez pitch last year always gave me headaches because of command issues.

Tillman's command wasn't that great, either. I think Tillman has better potential than Hernandez, but they both need to sharpen command to be successful.

[Mike B]

Just to add my own point of view. I do hope and expect it to be Chris Tillman. However I really hope that David Hernandez is sent to Norfolk and kept as a potential SP. The team will likely need more depth than just one call up can provide this season. Chances are someone will hit the Disabled List at some point and if it's more than one... In other words, I am pulling for DH.

Good Post I agree 100%. Way to early to say DH is a BP guy. He looks like he is working on a new pitch so time in Norfolk could be just what the doctor orderred.