The Great Tillman Debate

[Sports Guy]

So you haven't actually thought about development and age themselves. You're operating within a paradigm of younger = better. You don't know anything about age/development at all.

The assumptions you have based on ages 22 and 25 are unfounded.

The part about DH having to reinvent himself is not based on anything.

Common sense is a terrible defense, and a terrible system of thought to operate within.

LOL....Ok, whatever...I will go with what the history of the sport says and you can have youe own theories...Thanks for the discussion.

[Flosman]

LOL....Ok, whatever...I will go with what the history of the sport says and you can have youe own theories...Thanks for the discussion.

SG what I think you are missing is really a simple position. This is what I think of this current 5th SP debate. You are correct CT is a better prospect than DH. Because of the very things you keep repeating. Skill level at a young age, held his own at the ML level at a very young age. However that is not what ultimately decides who breaks camp with the big club. That is decided by who gives the team the best chance to win today. DH has shown he is a little more ready than CT, today. This does not take away that CT is still the better prospect by a pretty wide margin in my eyes. CT will be back soon enough I don't think there is any doubt about that.

[Sports Guy]

SG what I think you are missing is really a simple position. This is what I think of this current 5th SP debate. You are correct CT is a better prospect than DH. Because of the very things you keep repeating. Skill level at a young age, held his own at the ML level at a very young age. However that is not what ultimately decides who breaks camp with the big club. That is decided by who gives the team the best chance to win today. DH has shown he is a little more ready than CT, today. This does not take away that CT is still the better prospect by a pretty wide margin in my eyes. CT will be back soon enough I don't think there is any doubt about that.

No, I am not missing anything...I just think it is terrible way of doing things.

I have a different philosophy about this season than pretty much everyone else does...To me, wins are important this year but wins do not trump development and setting up for the future. Now, I say this and still believe Tillman is the better starter this year than DH...MAYBE DH's first few starts are better but that is really meaningless because they could be better than Matusz too..doesn't mean he is a better pitcher.

I think the Orioles are correct in saying wins matter this year but I think they are wrong in thinking it is the #1 thing...That is where there is such a difference here.

My issue is less about DH himself as it is what's best for the long term of the club.

I have stated that i think DH could be a 4/5 starter in the AL...I believe that. I do think he would be a guy we would look to replace but I do think he could give you that 4.75-5 ERA, 150ish IP type season. But I do not think giving him those innings over Tillman is what is best for the future of the Orioles.

[Dr. Andrews]

SG what I think you are missing is really a simple position. This is what I think of this current 5th SP debate. You are correct CT is a better prospect than DH. Because of the very things you keep repeating. Skill level at a young age, held his own at the ML level at a very young age. However that is not what ultimately decides who breaks camp with the big club. That is decided by who gives the team the best chance to win today. DH has shown he is a little more ready than CT, today. This does not take away that CT is still the better prospect by a pretty wide margin in my eyes. CT will be back soon enough I don't think there is any doubt about that.

If that were the case...Guthrie would NOT be in the rotation...let alone our #2.

[Arthur_Bryant]

SG what I think you are missing is really a simple position. This is what I think of this current 5th SP debate. You are correct CT is a better prospect than DH. Because of the very things you keep repeating. Skill level at a young age, held his own at the ML level at a very young age. However that is not what ultimately decides who breaks camp with the big club. That is decided by who gives the team the best chance to win today. DH has shown he is a little more ready than CT, today. This does not take away that CT is still the better prospect by a pretty wide margin in my eyes. CT will be back soon enough I don't think there is any doubt about that.

I disagree that this should be the question. The Orioles should be looking at what is best for the team today and in the long run, with the long term being much more important.

If Hernandez gets the shot, it should be on that basis: that he looks ready to make a breakthrough, and that creating another reliable starter would be so valuable that they will give him a chance to make it happen. I'm in no position to judge whether he is ready to break through, but if you think that he is, then you defer Tillman's MLB development for a little while. My opinion.

SG seems to be saying that Tillman is so valuable to the team's future that you don't defer his MLB development, regardless. I disagree, but it's certainly a valid argument. Tillman is a major talent.

But the main point is that whatever choice you make, you make it with a long hard look at the future, not just going on who happens to be marginally better in a snapshot today.

[RShack]

The Orioles should be looking at what is best for the team today and in the long run, with the long term being much more important.

Right. But I fail to see how any team action conflicts with that. It's not like they're doing anything that downgrades the long term. Just because they're taking steps to win games in the short run, that doesn't mean they have sacrificed anything whatsoever about the long term.

Look, everybody agrees that it's time to start winning ballgames. That's all they're doing. I think you'd have a point if they were letting some promising prospect go in favor of veteranosity. But they're not doing that.

[Stotle]

If BAL wants to give Hernandez a shot at sticking as a starter, it really is bumping-up against now-or-never territory. Not because of his age, but Arrieta, Britton and Erbe could each be in line for a shot over the season or so. Tillman is certainly going to get an extended opportunity at some point. Matusz and Bergie appear to be set unless they fall off a figurative cliff.

So, while I love Tillman's potential, I can't say it's a huge deal if he starts at AAA. If Hernandez has indeed made the changes he needs to in order to potentially succeed as a starter, give him the shot now. It may be his last true shot if the arms behind him continue to progress.

[SilentJames]

No, I am not missing anything...I just think it is terrible way of doing things.

I have a different philosophy about this season than pretty much everyone else does...To me, wins are important this year but wins do not trump development and setting up for the future. Now, I say this and still believe Tillman is the better starter this year than DH...MAYBE DH's first few starts are better but that is really meaningless because they could be better than Matusz too..doesn't mean he is a better pitcher.

I think the Orioles are correct in saying wins matter this year but I think they are wrong in thinking it is the #1 thing...That is where there is such a difference here.

My issue is less about DH himself as it is what's best for the long term of the club.

I have stated that i think DH could be a 4/5 starter in the AL...I believe that. I do think he would be a guy we would look to replace but I do think he could give you that 4.75-5 ERA, 150ish IP type season. But I do not think giving him those innings over Tillman is what is best for the future of the Orioles.

This si the problem SG. You can disagree all you want, no one is saying that you are wrong. But you have this opinion that your way is the only acceptable way and everything and anything else is terrible.

I think the argument for DH is a good one, though I would have stuck with Tillman as well. But the move isn't TERRIBLE, there are merits to this move and the Tatum move. Not everything is so black and white.

[Sports Guy]

This si the problem SG. You can disagree all you want, no one is saying that you are wrong. But you have this opinion that your way is the only acceptable way and everything and anything else is terrible.

I think the argument for DH is a good one, though I would have stuck with Tillman as well. But the move isn't TERRIBLE, there are merits to this move and the Tatum move. Not everything is so black and white.

Oh christ...Please, go away.

I am sorry that I have a strong opinion and am not cowering behind the Orioles decision making to answer it for me. If you choose to go through life that way, that's fine..But not me.

[Sports Guy]

If BAL wants to give Hernandez a shot at sticking as a starter, it really is bumping-up against now-or-never territory. Not because of his age, but Arrieta, Britton and Erbe could each be in line for a shot over the season or so. Tillman is certainly going to get an extended opportunity at some point. Matusz and Bergie appear to be set unless they fall off a figurative cliff.

So, while I love Tillman's potential, I can't say it's a huge deal if he starts at AAA. If Hernandez has indeed made the changes he needs to in order to potentially succeed as a starter, give him the shot now. It may be his last true shot if the arms behind him continue to progress.

There is some validity to this(leave it up to you to provide that..thanks)...My issue is how long are you keeping Tillman down and what is he going to get out of AAA?

[Tony-OH]

If BAL wants to give Hernandez a shot at sticking as a starter, it really is bumping-up against now-or-never territory. Not because of his age, but Arrieta, Britton and Erbe could each be in line for a shot over the season or so. Tillman is certainly going to get an extended opportunity at some point. Matusz and Bergie appear to be set unless they fall off a figurative cliff.

So, while I love Tillman's potential, I can't say it's a huge deal if he starts at AAA. If Hernandez has indeed made the changes he needs to in order to potentially succeed as a starter, give him the shot now. It may be his last true shot if the arms behind him continue to progress.

This is my opinion in a nutshell. If Hernandez has made those strides let's see what he can do. Tillman's command struggles worry me a bit. Honestly, they always have. I see nothing wrong with him working on that command at Norfolk for a while. He'll get his chance this year and in the end, I would not be surprised if he ends up with 22 or more starts (125+ innings) with Baltimore this year.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I think the Orioles are correct in saying wins matter this year but I think they are wrong in thinking it is the #1 thing...That is where there is such a difference here.

My issue is less about DH himself as it is what's best for the long term of the club.

I have stated that i think DH could be a 4/5 starter in the AL...I believe that. I do think he would be a guy we would look to replace but I do think he could give you that 4.75-5 ERA, 150ish IP type season. But I do not think giving him those innings over Tillman is what is best for the future of the Orioles.

If that is his ceiling, then you're probably right. That's not worth deferring Tillman's development. In that case you send Hernandez to AAA and let hm wait along with Arrieta for the next opening.

But I think DH can be better than that.

Take it down by a run per game. Say, for the sake of argument, that he has the realistic potential to be a 3.75-4.00 starter... maybe Bergesen numbers. Would that merit giving him a shot right now over Tillman?

[Tony-OH]

There is some validity to this(leave it up to you to provide that..thanks)...My issue is how long are you keeping Tillman down and what is he going to get out of AAA?

He can get a lot out of Norfolk. First, he's working with a great pitching coach in Mike Griffin. Second, he can work on mechanical things that could help him with the command of his pitches without worrying about facing Derek Jeter and A-rod.

He's young and he has a lot of talent, but he needs to know he can't be throwing 100 pitch by the fifth inning. There is nothing stunting his progress. It's not like he needs to figure out how to get big league batters out, he needs to figure out how to command his pitches better.

Once he does that, he will get big league batters out more consistently and fulfill his promise. If not, he'll end up a 4th/5th starter kind of guy. I tend to believe he'll put it together, but I have no problem at all with him going back to AAA for awhile. Obviously, he should be the first guy up as long as he's throwing strikes in AAA when the need arises.

[Lucky Jim]

I'd like to put forth some ideas so that those who know can help me out.

In thinking over age, performance, level, and human development, does this sound reasonable?

Human brain development, especially in males does not stop until the age of 24 or 25. Therefore, when we consider a player's performance in relation to age and level of competition, until the age of 24/25, the biggest factor is physical ability and physical development. In assessing Tillman and Hernandez, I think that Tillman will not experience any further development as a pitcher until he is 24, unless he develops physically. That being the case, his ability now will stay rather static.

Hernandez, on the other hand, is prime for a big jump. Male brain development may be the catalyst that sparks a major league player's prime, which usually occurs from 26-30.

Both Hernandez and Tillman have shown the ability to succeed at very high levels in relation to their physical peers in the minors. Hernandez struggled with control and HR. The same is true of Tillman. Hernandez struck out more hitters/9, and did so over a longer stretch in the majors. I do not think that Hernandez needs to discover something new in terms of ability. His arm is good. His FB is a plus pitch, and his Curve and Change are decent. I would expect that his struggles with command to improve greatly this year. This ST he has shown a huge improvement in that area.

Furthermore, there is nothing to suggest that Hernandez cannot continue to K MLB hitters. His game log shows that he was pretty consistent all year. His GB, LD and FB tendencies are about league average. His biggest hurdle is keeping the ball in the yard on the flyballs. All the projections that I've seen show confidence that DH will continue to strike out MLB hitters.

In determining who is better now for the rotation, I would give it to whichever of the two has more ability. If the two are equal, I'd give it to Hernandez, as he has a significant advantage over Tillman due to his age. Again, age through the minor leagues, I think, is important in determining present physical ability in relation to competition, and projecting future physical ability. Age ceases to be of importance at three critical stages: 1. physical development is complete 2. intellectual development is complete 3. decline.

Is that reasonable or off base?

First, I wish I could have responded earlier. It would have been more timely.

Well, I would appreciate learning something. You never exhibited any knowledge of how or why age is important in assessing a prospect. It's definitely important, you just haven't shown that you understand its importance, or how to use it in assessing a prospect.

I've spent the last nine years studying development and assessing it in individuals from ages 13 through the traditional undergraduate, but I'm sure you're correct that I don't know how important age is.

The second part in bold doesn't work with the opening of your post. The two assertions contradict each other.

There are clearly some provocative and interesting ideas here. Now, I haven't "studied" brain development for nine years, so it's entirely possible my common-sense (already lost you?) take on your ideas will be wildly off-base. That said, I don't buy (yet) that "brain development" is the catalyst that sparks a player's prime - it seems as yet fairly speculative. Is it a component? Sure. But is there analysis out there that controls for other factors? (I.e., the repetitions reached by a certain age, for instance?) There's a correlation in there (if delayed) but no evidence of primary causation.

Second, you say that "brain development" does not "stop" until age 24, and acknowledge that physical development may not stop until later than 22, but claim that Tillman will not "experience any further development" until age 24. This seems incorrect even if your suppositions are spot-on. Why would a maturing 21year old, with continuing brain development, not improve until his brain development stopped? And how does this track the often speedy development of many great pitchers between 20 and 24? Further, isn't that development a continuum, and not some punctuated equilibrium, where development stagnates then leaps forward? So "development" at 22 will be approaching 23, and 23 approaching 24. None of that points to the kind of developmental dichotomy that you've outlined: where a player stagnates as his body and mind develop, then suddenly lurches forward when that development ends. We're not talking about building a car, after all - completion isn't a prerequisite for progress.

And, indeed, all brains are not created equal, and a player farther along the developmental curve at 19 or 20 (and Tillman clearly is in that camp) will continue to develop through age 24 or 25. This is problematic to your analysis, I think, because you're taking a generalization ("24 or 25") and applying it to specific instances. You, yourself, have repeated ad infinitum that "scouting" is the essential component of predicting performance. And that must be because you think the assessment of something individual is important. And yet here you rely on a standardized time-line of development, failing to account for either the fact that development may generally stop at 24 or 25, but in fact may stop in individuals at some point around that time, and - more importantly - for the fact that development begins and ends at varying levels of functionality. In doing so, you've taken all idiosyncrasy out of the equation. Simply "arriving at" one's individual "full maturity" does little if that maturity is below that of your competition. There are few indicators of whether or not this is the case, but advancement at a young age is one of them - and really amounts to the subtext of SG's preference for youth. It's not perfect. Obviously, some prodigies end up maxing out at 23, and some late bloomers thrive at 29+.

Third, the statement regarding DH, that "the change and curve are decent," is true, but only to a point. Neither were very good last year, and in fact, DH's breaking ball was so bad that it was virtually impossible to tell if he was throwing a curve or a slider. He showed no confidence in his change-up. For DH, w/ a small sample, there's really no way to know if his command is truly better (whether or not that's a function of brain development). The difference seems to be an actual improvement in the quality of his secondary pitches. And even that - based on a small sample - is problematic.

Nonetheless, as for your last paragraph - I agree, for the most part. I think that there's at least one component that Tillman needs to work on. And that if DH has solidified his change-up and - most importantly - his breaking ball (be it slider or curve), then he should be given an opportunity to pitch in the rotation until Tillman commands better. But that's not much to do with brain development. By your theory, if I understand correctly (and I may not, I acknowledge) DH will be a better choice than Tillman for over two more years. This seems highly unlikely.

[SilentJames]

Oh christ...Please, go away.

I am sorry that I have a strong opinion and am not cowering behind the Orioles decision making to answer it for me. If you choose to go through life that way, that's fine..But not me.

no one is cowering behind anything. We are talking about a game SG, game. Come down off the cross a minute and join the rest of us in reality - having a strong opinion is one thing - but there is a line when you just become a jackass.

Don't be a jackass SG, you are too smart to do that.

Once again, I agree that Tillman should be in the five hole. But him going down to AAA does not require such a hemorrhagic response.