I'm not really one to second guess the manager...

[bluedog]

Was the decision where he left our best bullpen reliever and left handed specialist Will Ohman out there to face right handed hitter Adrian Beltre with one on and two outs in the eigth inning good or bad?

That was good and very atypical for Trembley. I was shocked he stayed with the hot hand against a guy who he normally would match up against - but the way Ohman was pitching, it looked like a great idea at the time to keep him out there to face Beltre.

And it worked out great.

I'm not saying Trembley doesn't ever go with the hot hand, I'm just saying he rarely does this. I'd love to see more of it.

[The Wedge]

Well of course it's a judgment call. Most manager decisions are. But let's boil down the judgment call without using names: The choice not only gives up a run, but it takes the bat out of your two best hitters and puts them in the hands of two guys mired in slump.

Usually I'm one of the first people to defend any manager from getting spoiled by his players not performing, but in this case, the man's judgment told him that it'd be a better idea to put the bat in the hands of two slumping players over two of his hottest hands. I didn't get it at the time, didn't get it when it didn't work, and I don't get it today. My judgment call is that it was wrong, boneheaded, and a no-brainer.

[bluedog]

This was a NO BRAINER that DT MADE THE RIGHT CALL even though it didn't work out. Wiggi made a nice bunt and they walked Tejada. It made the pitcher have to throw strikes (walk or even WP would score runner from third) and all Scott needed to do was hit a fly ball.

This was indeed the right call. You pitch to Wiggi and you run the high risk of him hitting into a DP as he is not a fast runner at all.

Look, we're basically saying which of the following situations do we have more faith the O's will score with:

Wigginton hitting with men on first and second and no out.

Scott hitting with the bases loaded and 1 out.

Right now, I'd pick Wiggy over Scott 100% of the time. You are saying you'd seriously take Scott, even given how hot Wiggy is right now?

And where Wiggy is prone to double plays, Scott is currently striking out once every 4 at bats. Why not factor that into your arguments? He may only need a fly ball to get a run in, but he's very likely to strike out (which he did) and leave the O's in a situation where they don't score at all.

[bluedog]

Maybe you should read my post again. I didn't use Bard's stats to bolster my argument. In fact, they probably hurt my argument. He's been much better against LHB's than RHB's so far this year.

You posted historical splits. I was saying why even look at historical splits (whether they support your argument or not) if you aren't willing to look at recent performance as an indicator as well?

[The Wedge]

Wiggy is hot and Scott is cold. No doubt about it. However, we are asking Wiggy, Tejada, or Scott to get a hit, verses Scott getting a walk or sac fly. I think you guys are starting to win me over to your side of the argument.

Come to the dark side. We have cookies.

[bluedog]

Wiggy is hot and Scott is cold. No doubt about it. However, we are asking Wiggy, Tejada, or Scott to get a hit, verses Scott getting a walk or sac fly. I think you guys are starting to win me over to your side of the argument.

Yeah this is my point. Leave all the baseball logic and stats aside.

As a fan, did you feel more or less confident the O's would score once Wiggy laid down a bunt?

I knew they'd walk Tejada and we'd have two guys hitting under .200 facing Bard. I had absolutely zero faith Scott would get a fly ball in the air and I was very concerned he'd strike out. And as much as I want Reimold to be the hitter he was last year, I expected him to be overmatched by Bard at the plate given his current struggles.

So as a fan, I felt that we had a great chance of scoring with Wiggy and Miggy at the plate and almost no chance of scoring with Scott and Reimold at the plate.

I'd be shocked if anyone other than OldFan felt differently as a fan at the time the game was happening.

[bluedog]

I posted his splits from 2009 and from 2010. Isn't 2010 recent?

Yeah that's true.

Seriously though - were you confident that Scott or Reimold would do better at the plate with the bases loaded than Miggy & Wiggy with men on 1st & 2nd?

[bluedog]

Probably not. I can't say I would have been confident with Wiggy or Tejada against Bard. The guy has got nasty stuff. Maybe I was just so happy with what a good bunt it was. I don't know. There have been a few times when I felt we should have bunted or gotten a runner over to third that maybe I just wanted to see it. I can't say I was confident with Scott up there but I certainly felt he had a chance to get that run in. I didn't feel like Luke was an autmotic strikeout in that siutation.

The bunt was a thing of beauty for sure. Wiggy is so hot he can even execute the fundamentals right now.

I know that Miggy and Wiggy both hit into a lot of double plays. There's a high probability that letting them hit does result in a double play.

But I think there's also a far higher probably we get a hit (or a home run given how clutch they've been lately) than there is from Scott or Reimold.

[Sports Guy]

So, I am curious...For those of you who thought this was a good move by DT, were you screaming at the TV for him to bunt in the 10th?

[bluedog]

So, I am curious...For those of you who thought this was a good move by DT, were you screaming at the TV for him to bunt in the 10th?

Great question. I feel like sometimes people argue positions that they wouldn't actually support as a fan while they were watching the game.

[bluedog]

At the time, I had no problem with Wiggy's bunt. Maybe I've changed my mind after talking about it in this thread. I was also ok with Wiggy hitting in the 10th because 1) the DP was no longer in order 2) the strategy didn't work the first time 3) asking Wiggy to get another bunt down against another hard thrower seemd like a bit much

Good point about the double play not being in order. That's a legit reason to treat the two situations differently right there.

[glorydays]

Wiggy is hot and Scott is cold. No doubt about it. However, we are asking Wiggy, Tejada, or Scott to get a hit, verses Scott getting a walk or sac fly. I think you guys are starting to win me over to your side of the argument.

Here's the problem... no one really would expect Wiggy to lay down a sac bunt because that is not how we play ball. If we played ball that way and everyone in this very mediocre lineup was expected to be able to lay down the sac bunt every once in a while - no matter where they were hitting in the lineup - and we actually manufactured runs every once in a while... than I don't think it would have been a suprise (and to that end, if this team had this type of mindset it may have put Scott in a better position mentally when he came up to hit).

No matter how hot Wiggy or Miggi are - they are not good enough to be exempt from laying down a sac bunt if it means it puts us in a better position to win the game (which is what we are debating).

In the end, this is one of my biggest hangups with DT. He stresses fundamentals in Spring Training - but according to Baseball Reference that was the FIRST SAC BUNT OF THE YEAR!!

[Lucky Jim]

At the time, I had no problem with Wiggy's bunt. Maybe I've changed my mind after talking about it in this thread. I was also ok with Wiggy hitting in the 10th because 1) the DP was no longer in order 2) the strategy didn't work the first time 3) asking Wiggy to get another bunt down against another hard thrower seemd like a bit much

This is my take too. Just adding on.

[TGO]

Trembley made the right call, and here's why:

Long term, you have to show the players you trust them to do their jobs, and you have to show them you will ask them to do the little things when the situation calls for it, with no favoritism. Trembley asked his hottest hitter to lay down a bunt which then got one of his other hottest hitters walked. And yes, that brought up a guy in a terrible slump. But Scott already has one huge clutch homerun this year (PH too, IIRC) despite being in the same slump he's in now. And all he had to do was hit a fly ball. If you can't ask your DH to hit a fly ball, you're nowhere.

[TGO]

So, I am curious...For those of you who thought this was a good move by DT, were you screaming at the TV for him to bunt in the 10th?

The odds of scoring a run from second with no outs are higher than those of scoring a run from third with one out.

If you're strictly going off a stats-based analysis and using a run expectancy matrix, Trembley made the right call in the 8th (bunting) and the right call in the 10th (not bunting).