I'm torn over Taillon vs Machado

[Stotle]

Should we be influenced at all by the fact that our minor league system just seems to be flat-out better at maximizing pitchers' talents than they are at maximizing hitters'?

Ideally, no. If your developmental efforts are lacking, you need to fix that area of the organization. That said, I know a fair number of amateur golfers who account for their slice on the course while working to fix it at the range.

[PBR Street Gang]

Don't have answers for you, although -again- it's pretty common to have difficulties gathering stats for HS'ers.

FWIW here's Zack Grienke's stats for his senior season at Apopka High (Top classification for baseball)

9-2 - 0.55 ERA, 63 IP, 118 K, 8 BB Picked 6th in 2002.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Reliable, up-to-date stats for prep kids are usually pretty hard to come by. They are also pretty hard to read into, given the varying levels of talent between regions, teams, and individual players.

Exactly. Even when they're reliable in terms of accuracy, they're very shaky in terms of meaning. The quality of HS hitters, HS coaching, and HS defenses are incredibly variable. There is nothing that approaches a HS standard, even within a region or a state.

And let's not even talk about official scoring, which can make a huge difference in WHIP and ERA.

Defenses especially are critical. Force a good HS pitcher to get 25 or more outs in seven innings... all of a sudden he doesn't look so good on paper.

All that having been said, after seeing video of Taillon: if the hitters in his league are averaging as much as one earned run per game off him, the league as a whole must be almost the equivalent of the Gulf Coast League.

[PBR Street Gang]

All that having been said, after seeing video of Taillon: if the hitters in his league are averaging as much as one earned run per game off him, the league as a whole must be almost the equivalent of the Gulf Coast League.

Stats according to Stotle:

GS: 11

IP: 62

W-L: 8-1

ERA: 1.78

WHIP: 1.016

H: 42

BB: 21

SO: 114

SO/7 IP: 12.87

BB/7 IP: 2.37

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What are you thinking now? High A?

[Stotle]

Stats according to Stotle:

GS: 11

IP: 62

W-L: 8-1

ERA: 1.78

WHIP: 1.016

H: 42

BB: 21

SO: 114

SO/7 IP: 12.87

BB/7 IP: 2.37

What are you thinking now? High A?

Hilarious. The guy is striking out almost two batters per inning while allowing around 5 hits a game. He allowed 16 runs on the the season. 6 in one four inning start at a launching pad of a field against rivals College Park. Take that one game out and his ERA is 1.2. Is that okay?

[RVAbird]

Stats according to Stotle:

GS: 11

IP: 62

W-L: 8-1

ERA: 1.78

WHIP: 1.016

H: 42

BB: 21

SO: 114

SO/7 IP: 12.87

BB/7 IP: 2.37

----------------------------------

What are you thinking now? High A?

This crusade of yours is getting ridiculous. It's been pointed out that stats for HS pitchers are notoriously unreliable.

As much as sabermetrics and statistical analysis has done for the game, the realm of high school talent still essentially belongs to scouts.

Not only are these statistics unreliable because of the WILD variation in talent, but there is a little thing called projection that is incredibly important when evaluating 17-18 year old kids.

[PBR Street Gang]

Hilarious. The guy is striking out almost two batters per inning while allowing around 5 hits a game. He allowed 16 runs on the the season. 6 in one four inning start at a launching pad of a field against rivals College Park. Take that one game out and his ERA is 1.2. Is that okay?

Taillon is being packaged and sold as the second coming/franchise savior. Are those numbers indicative of someone who deserves such an exalted status? Really?

[Stotle]

Taillon is being packaged and sold as the second coming/franchise savior. Are those numbers indicative of someone who deserves such an exalted status? Really?

I'm done. I'm now convinced you haven't seen a HS game in a decade or more. If you had, you would know that field conditions alone can blow up a game. Scorekeeping is even highly unreliable. Taillon's numbers could be right, or he could have had a bunch of unearned runs that should have been earned (in which case the numbers would be worse), OR he could have gotten a bunch of BS runs tacked on because the guy keeping score ruled a hit on a clear error because it was hit hard.

I mean, my wife doesn't follow much of any baseball and I was able to explain to her why high school stats are meaningless in about 3 minutes. Either she is really perceptive or....

[PBR Street Gang]

Not only are these statistics unreliable because of the WILD variation in talent, but there is a little thing called projection that is incredibly important when evaluating 17-18 year old kids.

The O's minor league teams are loaded with HS guys saddled with so called "projection". When projection/potential isn't met it's just a catch all excuse for a failed evaluation.

All too often people refuse to believe their lying eyes and place way to much emphasis on potential. Everyone who's serious and has any kind of memory knows that what is hoped for beyond past performances rarely comes to pass.

[allstar1579]

Taillon is being packaged and sold as the second coming/franchise savior. Are those numbers indicative of someone who deserves such an exalted status? Really?

Yes, actually they are.

[PBR Street Gang]

I'm done. I'm now convinced you haven't seen a HS game in a decade or more. If you had, you would know that field conditions alone can blow up a game. Scorekeeping is even highly unreliable. Taillon's numbers could be right, or he could have had a bunch of unearned runs that should have been earned (in which case the numbers would be worse), OR he could have gotten a bunch of BS runs tacked on because the guy keeping score ruled a hit on a clear error because it was hit hard.

I mean, my wife doesn't follow much of any baseball and I was able to explain to her why high school stats are meaningless in about 3 minutes. Either she is really perceptive or....

Excuses, excuses, excuses...for every possible negative there is a positive isn't there? Maybe your wife can explain that to you.

Convinced by so little info, eh? Your credibility I guess allows such bold predictions.

[Stotle]

The O's minor league teams are loaded with HS guys saddled with so called "projection". When projection/potential isn't met it's just a catch all excuse for a failed evaluation.

All too often people refuse to believe their lying eyes and place way to much emphasis on potential. Everyone who's serious and has any kind of memory knows that what is hoped for beyond past performances rarely comes to pass.

I will give you $1million dollars if you can find any professional evaluator that would take Zastryzny over Taillon. And the evaluator's last name cannot be "Zastryzny".

I'm sure you think you are seeing things clearly, and you are being insightful, but you are trying to hammer home a point that is so off base it might as well be being made by a 3rd grader. I'm really not trying to be condescending, and I apologize for the tone, but your argument is about as far off base as a draft-related argument can be.

[Stotle]

Excuses, excuses, excuses...for every possible negative there is a positive isn't there? Maybe your wife can explain that to you.

Convinced by so little info, eh? Your credibility I guess allows such bold predictions.

Okay, now I'm laughing out loud. This post is so right on.

Negative = shock-inducing misconception about high school evaluation

Positive = laughter

[PBR Street Gang]

I will give you $1million dollars if you can find any professional evaluator that would take Zastryzny over Taillon. And the evaluator's last name cannot be "Zastryzny".

I'm sure you think you are seeing things clearly, and you are being insightful, but you are trying to hammer home a point that is so off base it might as well be being made by a 3rd grader. I'm really not trying to be condescending, and I apologize for the tone, but your argument is about as far off base as a draft-related argument can be.

Really? That far off? Wow, you don't use hyperbole in your evaluations do you?

All I'm trying to do is show some contrast. Sorry if you feel so threatened? Could one possibly doubt Taillon's "rating" without insults and condescension? It's possible that the second best MLB player in this draft won't be picked in the first round.

[Stotle]

Really? That far off? Wow, you don't use hyperbole in your evaluations do you?

All I'm trying to do is show some contrast. Sorry if you feel so threatened? Could one possibly doubt Taillon's "rating" without insults and condescension? It's possible that the second best MLB player in this draft won't be picked in the first round.

No I don't. You can doubt Taillon's profile all you want. You are welcome to. But HS stats are not a good way to do that. You've been acting for some time as if these stats were being kept a secret -- as if there was this big mystery which, if unveiled, would show Taillon to be a paper tiger. It's just not the case. You've had a couple people try to explain why HS stats are next to meaningless, but you insist the opposite.

I apologized once and I apologize again -- I'm sorry for the tone of my posts. I just don't understand why you insist there is anything meaningful in these stats. Further, let's not pretend like you haven't been a little sassy with your tones regarding Taillon.

It's all in fun, and ultimately meaningless. We're just shooting the **** about the draft. But I think it is worth thinking about why professional evaluators care so little about HS stats. It helps a lot in working to figure out what is and what isn't important in trying to project 18 year olds some five to seven years down the line.