The flaw to "grow the arms."

[JTrea81]

In Roy's thread he points out the flaw in Andy's "buy the bats" strategy, and now I'll point out the things that don't work in the "grow the arms" part.

I think we can all agree that pitching is a very volatile commodity. So naturally you want as much of it as possible right? But since it's so volatile, stockpiling it is not going to lead to the desired result of having depth and being able to use it for trades, because it will be almost impossible to stockpile enough arms to do both.

Pitchers will disappoint and become hurt or change roles from starter to reliever. That's the nature of the game.

Now Andy has said the best pitching is found in the earlier rounds, which is why he wants to take a pitcher in the first round in every draft. But by doing that, you will be missing out on the top positional talent which is less volatile, and therefore an easier commodity to stockpile for positional depth and trades. And pitching can be found much easier than the top positional players in later rounds, and there will always be top pitching available in the early rounds while the more advanced bats are much fewer in number, especially ones that are worthy of a Top 10 draft pick.

And free agent arms while expensive, also have successfully transitioned to the majors and have avoided the career ending injuries. That's why they are so expensive, and it never hurts having one or two of those guys in your rotation just in case your younger guys do flame out. And by acquiring those veteran arms, you also have built pitching depth.

So by focusing on stockpiling the first round pitching internally and not using FA, the Orioles are trying to fill a hole by digging another one into positional depth and that simply won't work. We are seeing the results of that strategy right now...

[JTrea81]

Care to either show us where Andy said he wants to take a pitcher in the first round in every draft or retract this statement? It forms the foundation to your entire premise but it is complete hooey. AM has never said this at all to my knowledge. You've either accidentally written something you didn't mean to write or you're making stuff up out of whole cloth. Which is it?

BTW, the next two paragraphs contain a bunch of conclusions, but not a shred of evidence to support them. Please show statistics supporting that it is easier to find excellent pitchers rather than excellent hitters later in the draft. I don't think this is true at all. The last time I vetted this idea from you was about two years ago. I did it by looking around baseball at all the leading pitchers and leading hitters. Your point held no water at all looking at the actual results. Several others disproved it in other ways. It was a pretty complete dismantling of your point. As I recall, you ran away from that thread and never addressed all the names, facts, and figures that were provided by others.

Andy said on XM that he would always want to take a pitcher in the first round because he felt pitching was the most important, but he would approve whoever Jordan thought would have the best career as an Oriole.

As for my second point, it may have not been true for drafts 10 years ago, but in say in the most recent 4 drafts including 2010, you will not find as many advanced bats in the later rounds that will actually sign for overslot as you will advanced arms.

[Avsfan]

And if they don't take Tailion they are borderline retarded....he has the makings to be VERY VERY special.

Matsuz over Smoak is a coin flip really....Matsuz is gonna be good, so will Smoak

Weiters was the best player, and we got a steal having him drop in our laps

Rowell was the best high school bat in the draft, and was at the time a great pick...he just hasn't developed.

Hobgood, wasn't a great pick, but there were no bats.

[SteveA]

In Roy's thread he points out the flaw in Andy's "buy the bats" strategy, and now I'll point out the things that don't work in the "grow the arms" part.

I think we can all agree that pitching is a very volatile commodity. So naturally you want as much of it as possible right? But since it's so volatile, stockpiling it is not going to lead to the desired result of having depth and being able to use it for trades, because it will be almost impossible to stockpile enough arms to do both.

Pitchers will disappoint and become hurt or change roles from starter to reliever. That's the nature of the game.

Now Andy has said the best pitching is found in the earlier rounds, which is why he wants to take a pitcher in the first round in every draft. But by doing that, you will be missing out on the top positional talent which is less volatile, and therefore an easier commodity to stockpile for positional depth and trades. And pitching can be found much easier than the top positional players in later rounds, and there will always be top pitching available in the early rounds while the more advanced bats are much fewer in number, especially ones that are worthy of a Top 10 draft pick.

And free agent arms while expensive, also have successfully transitioned to the majors and have avoided the career ending injuries. That's why they are so expensive, and it never hurts having one or two of those guys in your rotation just in case your younger guys do flame out. And by acquiring those veteran arms, you also have built pitching depth.

So by focusing on stockpiling the first round pitching internally and not using FA, the Orioles are trying to fill a hole by digging another one into positional depth and that simply won't work. We are seeing the results of that strategy right now...

So how do you explain Tampa's success with the strategy?

[Stotle]

Now Andy has said the best pitching is found in the earlier rounds, which is why he wants to take a pitcher in the first round in every draft. But by doing that, you will be missing out on the top positional talent which is less volatile, and therefore an easier commodity to stockpile for positional depth and trades. And pitching can be found much easier than the top positional players in later rounds, and there will always be top pitching available in the early rounds while the more advanced bats are much fewer in number, especially ones that are worthy of a Top 10 draft pick.

While I have an issue with this whole paragraph, this broad statement is particularly flawed:

1) There isn't an "easy" categorization that can be found in later rounds. It is 100% draft dependent and player specific.

2) The underlined part makes it sound like you think pitchers worthy of a Top 10 pick can be found later in the draft. I assume this was not really what you meant to convey, right?

[hobbycars]

And if they don't take Tailion they are borderline retarded....he has the makings to be VERY VERY special.

Matsuz over Smoak is a coin flip really....Matsuz is gonna be good, so will Smoak

Weiters was the best player, and we got a steal having him drop in our laps

Rowell was the best high school bat in the draft, and was at the time a great pick...he just hasn't developed.

Hobgood, wasn't a great pick, but there were no bats.

Great post. We better not pass on Tallion if the Pirates don't ;pick him. I personally like taking pitching talent.

We should not be drafting positional talent based on need. Take the best player available regardless.

Having said that, I truly don't believe Hobgood was the best player available and it would surprise me if Jordan did. That frightens me.

[JTrea81]

2) The underlined part makes it sound like you think pitchers worthy of a Top 10 pick can be found later in the draft. I assume this was not really what you meant to convey, right?

No I meant to say there will always be plenty of advanced arms in the first round while the advanced bats will be fewer in numbers, especially those that are worth of being pick in the Top 10.

You will always find a Taillon or a Matzek, but the Smoaks, Poseys and Alonsos aren't in every draft and aren't always as plentiful as they were in 2008 for example.

In 2009 you had Ackley and then a dropoff, but you had plenty of top pitching to choose from.

In 2010 you have Cox and a dropoff but again there are plenty of top arms available.

[statman]

I kind of feel like we are destined to be like the Giants...which may or may not be a good thing...What do you do with Matusz, Tillman, Pomeranz/Taillon, Arrieta, Hobgood, Bergesen, Hernandez, Britton, etc. if you don't plan on trading any of them?

[Avsfan]

You will always find a Taillon or a Matzek, .

No you won't...I don't think you understand how good Tailion is. Best high school arm since Josh Beckett. Those players don't come around often.

What you can find in the late rounds are guys who have 1st/2nd round arms...but have had injuries. Jordan has capitalized on those picks.

[JTrea81]

No you won't...I don't think you understand how good Tailion is. Best high school arm since Josh Beckett. Those players don't come around often.

What you can find in the late rounds are guys who have 1st/2nd round arms...but have had injuries. Jordan has capitalized on those picks.

Oh I'm sure we'll hear about another arm that was the best since so and so in 2011...

As for your second point, I agree, but you won't find nearly as many advanced bats there. The lower rounds are where you can load up on arms.

The higher rounds should generally be used for positional depth unless there really is a can't miss guy.

With Taillon, the O's have such a major imbalance, and pitching is so volatile, I can picture him blowing out his arm in the minors, while a bat like Cox goes on to anchor 2B for a team for the next 8-10 years.

We have had absolutely no luck at developing first round HS pitchers as Rich Stahl and Adam Loewen both come to mind. So why take a draft pick that carries more risk of succeeding in our system?

[JTrea81]

What's an advance bat? Yonder Alonso? Justin Smoak? Grant Green? Gordon Beckham?

Does advanced mean they are guaranteed to help you in one, two, three years?

Yes, 2 years not counting the year they were drafted

A top HS bat while they have the tools will likely take 4 years unless they are Alex Rodriguez or likely Bryce Harper.

So that puts us at 2014 when they would make their debut and 2015 when they would be able to become acclimated to ML pitching if all goes well.

The advanced bat can help us in 2012 and be ready to contribute in 2013 which is still within the contracts and time of control of our core.

[JTrea81]

Justin Smoak, Yonder Alonso, and Gordon Beckham are all in their second full seasons since being drafted. What should be expected of them this year?

Alonso is blocked by Votto currently so there is nowhere for him to play other than OF. I would say he's a tick behind but I expect him to make his debut by September.

Beckham should be contributing, but is experiencing the sophomore slump. He did contribute last year ahead of schedule however.

Smoak is right on schedule as he's made his debut this season, and will have adjusted to ML pitching by the end of the season and will be ready to contribute in 2011.

Posey has just been called up and already contributed in his first game as a Giant. It will be interesting to see how he does, as he could be a ROY candidate.

[JTrea81]

By contributing, I mean not having their best offensive season, but keeping an OPS in the .800 range and showing real signs for a breakout the following season.

In other words they would be more of a help than a mediocre stopgap solution and be ready to contribute much more in following seasons.

[Mashed Potatoes]

Trea your philosophy is far too black and white. Drafts vary from year to year in overall talent, in the balance of talent between hitters and pitchers, in the age, ceilings and likelihood of reaching those ceilings between one player and another, and in what's available when the Orioles pick.

Not only is what you advocate too black and white, your characterization of what the Orioles currently do is off. We've used two of our last four 1st round picks on hitters and two on pitchers. In the two drafts we used our 1st round pick on a pitcher we used both our second and third round picks on hitters. That sounds pretty balanced to me.

Perhaps you're just talking about taking hitters with 1st round picks rather than pitchers as a general philosophy? I can understand that if you have players of equal talent. What if the O's have a choice between a hitter and a pitcher in the first round but the pitcher has a significantly higher ceiling? Would you still take the hitter?

[OregonBird]

IF the Orioles had the first pick last year, he would have drafted Dustin Ackley over Strasburg. Does that answer your question?

Boras and McPhail's penchant for being cheap?