The flaw to "grow the arms."

[JTrea81]

I think your misconceptions are due to the fact that you seem limited to the aerial view of the draft. If you talk to evaluators, you'll see that the idea of a fall-off can be true, but is rarely as cut-and-dry as you are making it. There are some this year that believe there isn't a bat worth taking in the Top 15 picks (I'm not TOO far off from that opinion, though some of the college arms have stumbled to the finish line). You'll find others that are adamant that Machado, Cox and Grandal should all be in the top 5. So where is the fall-off? Where do you draw the line?

As I pointed out above, I see what the draft pundits rate these prospects, but you have to consider what our system can successfully develop.

Yeah Taillon might have the ceiling of Josh Beckett, or Machado may have the celiing of Alex Rodriguez lite. But do you really think our minor league system can develop that talent to it's ceiling, or are you better off taking a player that has a lower ceiling but that you know they'll have a much better chance of reaching it within our system? I'd say it's the latter.

[JTrea81]

However, if a hitter is the best available player, he should be chosen, especially if he plays a position of need for the drafting team.

So in saying that, should the Orioles have taken Smoak, Posey or Alonso over Matusz IYO?

Posey was the BPA at #4 according to most draft pundits at the time.

[mcgraw238]

As I pointed out above, I see what the draft pundits rate these prospects, but you have to consider what our system can successfully develop.

Yeah Taillon might have the ceiling of Josh Beckett, or Machado may have the celiing of Alex Rodriguez lite. But do you really think our minor league system can develop that talent to it's ceiling, or are you better off taking a player that has a lower ceiling but that you know they'll have a much better chance of reaching it within our system? I'd say it's the latter.

Zach Britton, a HS selection currently ranked top 50, says Hi.

I would argue that our organzational strength at this point, if we have one, seems to be developing young pitching. Thus, under your logic, Taillon should be the guy since none of our young hitters are, in fact, reaching their ceiling.

[JTrea81]

Zach Britton, a HS selection currently ranked top 50, says Hi.

I would argue that our organzational strength at this point, if we have one, seems to be developing young pitching. Thus, under your logic, Taillon should be the guy since none of our young hitters are, in fact, reaching their ceiling.

Our strength seems to be finding late round younger pitching. The jury is still out if we can take a HS first round pitcher and harness the tools they have.

Loewen and Stahl were both failures.

Just because Britton was a success, doesn't mean Taillon would be and I'd rather not risk a first round pick on him to pass up on a potential Chase Utley type of player.

[mcgraw238]

Our strength seems to be finding late round younger pitching. The jury is still out if we can take a HS first round pitcher and harness the tools they have.

Loewen and Stahl were both failures.

Just because Britton was a success, doesn't mean Taillon would be and I'd rather not risk a first round pick on him to pass up on a potential Chase Utley type of player.

Are you really citing Stahl for your premise? How long ago was Stahl drafted? I guess the current regime not only gets blasted for thier current sins but for all the sins of the past. FYI, Loewen needed screws in his elbow and was finally told to quit pitching or risk further injury. I think the idea that he was a development failure is fuzzy at best.

Please provide some basis for the conclusion that Cox is a Chase Utley type player as he has neither the power potential of Utley or the defense. Everything I've read on Cox is that he is a .285 15 HR guy that will play adequate defense at 3B. To me, that is not 1:3 material when you have much much higher rated prospects on the board. Here's one guys take on Cox:

http://baseballbeginnings.com/2010/03/10/zack-cox-video/

[Avsfan]

The pitcher may have the higher ceiling, but to me it all depends on organziational need and the other pipelines you have to acquire positional talent. If the draft is bascially the only way you are going to be able to acquire premium positional talent, then you have to take that opportunity when it is there and draft the hitter.

And this is where you're on an island...you NEVER, EVER draft for need until the later rounds. Doesn't matter if it's Baseball, Football, Hockey or Basketball. Always, always, always pick the best player available.

[geschinger]

Doesn't matter if it's Baseball, Football, Hockey or Basketball. Always, always, always pick the best player available.

There are exceptions to this rule... If you have a young Peyton Manning and the BPA is a QB and you aren't getting adequate trade value, you don't draft the BPA.

[Avsfan]

There are exceptions to this rule... If you have a young Peyton Manning and the BPA is a QB and you aren't getting adequate trade value, you don't draft the BPA.

Exceptions that occur very infrequently. Sometimes however you still draft the player (Reds taking Alonso even though they had Votto)

[JTrea81]

Always, always, always pick the best player available.

Even if you think our system can't develop them properly?

[SrMeowMeow]

Even if you think our system can't develop them properly?

Maybe if there's real reason to think that. There isn't.

[JTrea81]

Maybe if there's real reason to think that. There isn't.

Have you seen what has been able to make to the majors and have success through our system?

I think there's a real reason to be concerned about taking someone who won't succeed as an Oriole.

[mcgraw238]

Even if you think our system can't develop them properly?

Straw Man alert.

[RShack]

Even if you think our system can't develop them properly?

If you think you're not gonna help a guy get better, then you must get the guy who is closest to being right already. So, if you think you can't develop anybody, then the right answer to whether you draft the best player is "absolutely... because what we see is all we're gonna get..."

[MisterCrash]

I love how the Rays have a staff composed entirely of home-grown 26-year-olds (and who were all 24 when they won the pennant in 2008) and people are saying that growing the arms will never work.

[baltfan]

I love how the Rays have a staff composed entirely of home-grown 26-year-olds (and who were all 24 when they won the pennant in 2008) and people are saying that growing the arms will never work.

Garza came through the Twins system, but otherwise you make a very good point. Also note that Garza, Price, and Niemann were first round picks. Davis was a third rounder. Shields was a 16th rounder but considering that Baseball America considered him the 16th best prospect in high school, I assume he went so lated because they thought he was going to college.