The flaw to "grow the arms."

[SrMeowMeow]

Have you seen what has been able to make to the majors and have success through our system?

I think there's a real reason to be concerned about taking someone who won't succeed as an Oriole.

You're right. In the future, we should only draft second basemen, right fielders, and left-handed starters. Oh, and also, shortstops with the initials C.R.

You are learning and espousing the wrong lessons. But you know that, don't you.

[JTrea81]

If you think you're not gonna help a guy get better, then you must get the guy who is closest to being right already. So, if you think you can't develop anybody, then the right answer to whether you draft the best player is "absolutely... because what we see is all we're gonna get..."

But BPA usually takes ceiling into account. There are players drafted higher than picks that are seen as safer picks as those would have a lower ceiling.

But if you don't have faith in your system for those high ceiling picks to develop, doesn't that devalue them to your club?

Wouldn't it be better to take the safer pick in that case so you try to avoid blowing a draft pick on a player?

[baltfan]

But BPA usually takes ceiling into account. There are players drafted higher than picks that are seen as safer picks as those would have a lower ceiling.

But if you don't have faith in your system for those high ceiling picks to develop, doesn't that devalue them to your club?

Wouldn't it be better to take the safer pick in that case so you try to avoid blowing a draft pick on a player?

Please name a guy that is the type of prospect that you are referring to that the Orioles drafted who has failed in the Orioles system but you believe would develop in another system (e.g. the Rays).

[mcgraw238]

Please name a guy that is the type of prospect that you are referring to that the Orioles drafted who has failed in the Orioles system but you believe would develop in another system (e.g. the Rays).

Haven't you been paying attention? He went back all the way to the Frank Wren days and gave you Richard Stahl.

[JTrea81]

Please name a guy that is the type of prospect that you are referring to that the Orioles drafted who has failed in the Orioles system but you believe would develop in another system (e.g. the Rays).

Billy Rowell might be a good example.

[baltfan]

Billy Rowell might be a good example.

But what evidence is there he would be a success somewhere else? The best example would be someone like Darnell McDonald making it in another system, but as we know that really didn't happen. If Tim Beckham were struggling in this system, people would be blaming it on the Orioles development system.

I think to make these types of statements you need high ceiling guys that failed here and then succeeded elsewhere. Afterall, you are speaking of high school guys, so they would be 24 when they became minor league free agents at the very worst. The problem is there are no examples of Orioles prospects like this with the exception of maybe Werth, who was traded, and still needed to go to three more teams before making it.

[JTrea81]

BTW, your argument that we can develop late round pitching, but not early round pitching is priceless. You've actually written that a couple times now. Are you sure you don't want to back off that stance? I can't even imagine how you'd justify it if asked to do so.

Well I'm not sure if we can develop pitching period as well as people think which is why if we are taking pitching, I want to take it when the top positional talent is off the board.

Matusz was extremely polished coming out of college so he didn't need much development

Hernandez is a reliever, Berken is a reliever, Bergesen is a 4th starter and Tillman looks to be headed the same route because of his command and penchant for giving up HRs.

Arrieta looks to be more like a 4th starter or a reliever.

Erbe isn't doing well as a starter, ditto for Patton so they could be bullpen bound.

Zach Britton is about the only prospect not in A ball that is showing promise as a potential TOR starter.

So I'm not seeing the development in pitching that is so touted.

[mcgraw238]

This argument is so silly. If our system is so poor that they can't develop players well if they're "insert whatever specifications you've decided work for you today", then we're screwed anyway. You're arguing from an illogical viewpoint. Who should we take if we can't do anything right is about the last thing anybody should be asking themselves.

BTW, your argument that we can develop late round pitching, but not early round pitching is priceless. You've actually written that a couple times now. Are you sure you don't want to back off that stance? I can't even imagine how you'd justify it if asked to do so.

I found this point rather amusing as well.

[Hank Scorpio]

Can I tell you how much it cracks me up that you read through two hours of work and a ton of data that totally contradicts what you're saying and picked out this nugget from it?

Why don't you tell me what you thought about the data? Does it support you or not? Is it a fair look at things from last year or not? How would you do it differently if you think it isn't fair?

Original thought? Get the hell outta here.

Were you gonna plagiarize the whole thing for us- you have any thoughts of- of your own on this matter? Or do- is that your thing, you come into a bar, you read some obscure passage and then you pretend- you pawn it off as your own- your own idea just to impress some girls? Embarrass my friend?

[mcgraw238]

Well I'm not sure if we can develop pitching period as well as people think.

1. Matusz was extremely polished coming out of college so he didn't need much development

Hernandez is a reliever, Berken is a reliever, Bergesen is a 4th starter and Tillman looks to be headed the same route because of his command and penchant for giving up HRs.

Arrieta looks to be more like a 4th starter or a reliever.

Erbe isn't doing well as a starter, ditto for Patton so they could be bullpen bound.

Zach Britton is about the only prospect not in A ball that is showing promise as a potential TOR starter.

So I'm not seeing the development in pitching that is so touted.

I'm not sure who is actually touting the development of pitching aside from a small point made in counter to your hypothesis that we take lesser rated college bats since our since can't develop anything in general.

Point 1 about Matusz not needing any development is simply incorrect logic about him and just about any college pitcher. You've made this point before about college players and it is simply wrong.

Hernandez, Berken and Bergeson are later round guys who are currently pitching in the bigs. They have already defied the odds. The platform from which you argue on development is flawed out of the shoot. So your saying that they all have to be developed into TOR guys?

I see a guy in Tillman who showed improved command on Saturday following his stint at AAA. He's only 22 but we know you've already written the final chapter on Tillman.

Interesting observation on Arrieta as he is currently dominating at AAA.

What does Patton have to do with development in our system? He came from the Stros and had a labrum issue.

In typical fashion, you just throw crap to see what sticks.