Stuff

[wildcard]

Just spoke to my contact. He said it's busy as all get out. Flanny and Duquette have their ears glued to their cells. He still thinks there will be a number of moves by the 31st. Recap of some things he said:

Don't look for a trade for Abreu. He wants the option picked up and we think we can address 2 needs for his salary.

Penn will not be called up until Lopez is traded. (Arizona or Texas?)

Scouting Shealy and still a chance he's acquired

Hawkins is generating a lot of interest and he too will be gone before the 31st.

Good chance Millar stays.

Will see some sort of bullpen shake up at the deadline

No interest in Hillenbrand

Some interest in Mench

He'll call if he hears anything concrete. Need to see if Belkast has heard anything from his contact

Penn probably is not needed in the rotation until July 29. He probably makes his next start on the 24th with Ottawa.

The FO is probably trying to negotiate all they can for RLo and they will go until at least the 30th before a decision is made. IMO.

Abreu is way too expensive and too old. O's probably pass.

They might like Burrell better but the no trade clause will stop them.

Would not be surprised to see RLo for Mench. That is not great but would not be bad. Mench hits lefties well, is 28 yr/old, makes $2.8M and is not eligible for FA until 2009.

I just would not do Olson for Shealy.

I would do Hawkins for Baker.

For those who think Colorado is out of it, think again. 4 out of the wildcard on July 20th is not out of it. They just need a boost. RLo, Hawkins and cash for Shealy and Baker would do nicely.

The bullpen shakeup probably includes Burres being promoted.

I still think Conine could go for a prospect.

FA this winter - Lee(5 for 60) or Wilson (3 for 15) both make sense. The O's only have room for one more $10m or greater salary. That is why filling a hole or two with younger, less expensive players is important to do at the deadline.

Schmidt is another matter. He will probably command more years then the O's want to pay. He will be 34 when the 2007 season starts. Even a 3 year agreement for $11/yr is risky. He will probably get 4 years from someone.

Glad they are passing on Hillenbrand. He's a rental at this point.

[mikezpen]

Whatever they trade, I think a young first baseman is actually what they should shoot for.They aren't going to trade for some superstar at that position and nobody in his right mind wants Conine/Millar back there. Shealy may be the man, and is so, they'll have to give up something to get him.

[wildcard]

Whatever they trade, I think a young first baseman is actually what they should shoot for.They aren't going to trade for some superstar at that position and nobody in his right mind wants Conine/Millar back there. Shealy may be the man, and is so, they'll have to give up something to get him.

I would rather have Olson, Wilson and Lee then to give up Olson for Shealy.

[Fan4Life]

I don't think there's any way that Schmidt gets only 6-7 million.

It's a shame that the O's think this way, because they are completely wrong. This team needs another impact bat for the middle of the order, not another solid complimentary guy like we are currently stocked with. And to get a player like that (I'm not necessarily saying that Abreu is the guy) you need to spend 12-15 million. This is the kind of thing that our front office seems to like (Benson, Hernandez, Mora, etc.) and though they are nice players, you need 3-4 GREAT players to compete in this division. And until they ante up for a few more "Tejada-type" guys, we will continue to be mediocre.

Took the words right out of my post... AMEN!

[seahay58]

Is Abreu expensive? Yes.

Is Abreu's skills declining? Not according to Win Shares.

He's tied for second(with Carlos Lee, behind Beltran) among NL OFs.

But this is nonsense - I hate these rumors, when in my heart of hearts I know the O's are incapable of decisive risks.

I don't think 5/60 is gonna cut it for C Lee, either.

[Fan4Life]

Hey, I hope we get the guy too but I really don't see Angelos taking on that contract nor do I see Gillick doing us any favors[/Quote]

Now we're in total agreement. BTW, thanks as usual for the information. Schmidt & Wilson wouldn't be bad either!

Good point.. and DITTO.

[Fan4Life]

I see that, however the title of this thread is "Stuff" and other players have been discussed here. I was just throwing it out there as a possibility for our 1b woes

He is a tremendously underrated player in my opinion

I'm glad you posted it here. I'm sure there are several other posters that spend 90% of the thread time here..... I would like to make a suggestion to Tony that we put all the other Categories under this one... that way we can see what other things are going on in those threads as well as what the primary topics of conversation here.

[LADANK]

If we want to actually compete next year. Then trading Lopez for Abreau makes absolute sense. You pick up Shealy for Olson and pick up possibly one veteran starter. We will be competitive next year.

[tennOsfan]

I think it would be ill-advised to pass up Abreu on the assumption that we'll get two decent free agents for the same price. As we've seen, there's no guarantee we'll "fill our needs" in the free agent market. After all, the only impact free agent we acquired last offseason wasn't even for a need -- it was just a rare good deal on a good player (Ramon).

Fact is, if we can actually get Abreu for Rodrigo friggin Lopez, why wouldn't we do that? Roberts, Mora, Abreu, Tejada is one heck of a start to a lineup, don't ya think?

[Mark Carver]

He's [Craig Wilson] an average player BB. Maybe a tad above average.

2003 - 125 OPS+

2004 - 122 OPS+

2005 - 112 OPS+

100 = Average

[wildcard]

\

Fact is, if we can actually get Abreu for Rodrigo friggin Lopez, why wouldn't we do that? Roberts, Mora, Abreu, Tejada is one heck of a start to a lineup, don't ya think?

Money. Money. and Money.

[Witchy_Chick]

Sorry -- this is a lonnnnngggg post, but there are a number of items from previous posts that I wanted to address.

Well they could acquire Shealy who will be making the minimum for 3 years.

Anyway what 2 guys could we possibly get for 6-7 million per that will have as much impact as Abreu?

I am simply amazed that the FO will not make this deal. Simply amazed.

JAson Schmidt and Craig Wilson.....

Are you serious? Is this your opinion or your contact's (and possibly the FO's opinion)? Schmidt and Wilson will command much more that $6-7 millon per year on the upcoming FA market.

And you don't think Jason Schmidt & Craig Wilson are going to be overpaid when they hit the FA market? Think again. Our FO continually underestimates the market. It will happen again.

If this is the FO's opinion, then they already have underestimated the FA market -- three and a half months in advance. Honestly......the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Too bad we don't have the luxury to have a lot of over paid players on the roster. I just don't think you can be successful on budget with 2 players accounting for over 1/3 of your payroll.

Again is this your opinion or what you're getting from your contact?

This mindet annoys me to no end. I posted this yesterday, but it wasn't addressed/commented on.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Originally Posted by Ravenbird

Come on BB! He has a .440 OBP, can steal you 30 bases, and still hit 15-20 HR's. Would you rather watch Conine and Fahey out in LF?

Playing in a band box has nothing to do with hitting a ton of doubles and getting on base as well as Abreu does.

This is a move what is a no-brainer of all no-brainer. Who cares about the contract? It's not our money, and Big Pete certainly has saved a few bucks over the past few years.

And, as mikezpen pointed out, Ponson/Hawkins/Javy come off the books next year. If we lose the Ponson case, that's $21 million that comes off the books next year. If we win it, well hell, we have $9 million "extra" that we didn't have to pay Ponson this year ($10 million salary minus Cards paying him $1 million). Not to mention -- where's the $12 million per year that they were willing to give Konerko for the next 5 or 6 years?? That 12 million would go a fairly long way to covering Abreu's $15 and $16 million over the next two years. Furthermore, aren't we supposed to be rolling in MASN money next year?

The money owed to Abreu best not be a BS excuse why we don't do this deal!!

Originally Posted by MVNOs

I hope the Orioles realize the opportunity that they have here, beyond just adding a Burrell/Abreu to the lineup.

The Orioles making this trade moves this team back towards legitimacy. It signals to the fans that the FO is capable of making competent, if not exceedingly good trades. It signals to the fans that the team is willing to pay the price to acquire talent and build a winner. It signals the same thing to impending free agents, who may not want to come to Baltimore so that they can play with a legitimate contender. It puts butts in the seats, something that's obviously important to Peter Angelos.

It basically takes a step not seen since Miguel Tejada signed here towards showing the fans that the Baltimore Orioles, as a franchise, are still relevant.

If this deal goes down because Angelos doesn't want to shell out the extra cash, then it's safe to expect more of the same for a long, long time. Burrell and Abreu refusing to waive their NTCs to play here is one thing... passing on a trade simply because of the pricetag involved in picking up one of these two outstanding players is a death blow to fans like me... the ones holding out hope that the franchise will finally take a positive step towards legitimacy.

The absolutely only delay in these negotiations should be the time it takes Mike Flanagan and Jim Duquette to stop laughing long enough to say "Deal."

If the Orioles try to feed the "youth movement" line as a reason why they're not going to trade for Abreu, I may gag. Please... because signing Russ Ortiz and Jeff Conine and Kevin Millar and attempting to sign Jeromy Burnitz and Nomar Garciaparra, and trading for Kris Benson, all above 30 mind you, is the sure-fire sign of a youth movement.

This deal needs to be done. Period. There shouldn't be any other discussion about it.

Great post!! Unfortunately, I've given you too much rep recently and can't hit you with it again for this one.

Plus, an Orioles' acquistion of Abreu keeps him out of Yankee pinstripes.

To add to the bogus "youth movement" angle that they may/may not attempt to sell to the fans -- don't forget they sent a lot of time and effort this past off-season wooing a 30-year-old Paul Konerko. Again, that deal was allegedly a 5 or 6 year deal -- which would make Konerko 35 or 36 in the final year of that deal.

As for potentially moving Nick to LF, I would hesitantly do it. I realize he seems most comfortable in RF. But, the kid played all three OF positions in the minors (and in ST, IIRC). Send him to winter ball to play LF. Play him in LF exclusively in ST 2007. He's a quick kid; I think he will be just fine in LF with some practice out there.

In short, let me echo most other posts in this thread: This a no-brainer -- get it done.

-------------------------------------------------------

Abreu worries me. He really does. The thing about him is that, if his average were to fall into the 240-260 range, his value would plummet because his slugging is so poor and his walk totals would like suffer as pitchers started going after him more directly. However, I have to do this deal if it just costs us RLo and someone like Birkins. He would definitely be overpaid in his last year if we had to pick up the option, but he plays the outfield and we are very weak in that area. If you can do this, I think you have to do it. I would try to get him to remove the NTC when we pick up the option though in case we need to unload him later.

If he waived his NTC clause to come here, does it get re-instituted with us? Or is it permanently waived?

Witchy

[rp0806]

Too bad we don't have the luxury to have a lot of over paid players on the roster. I just don't think you can be successful on budget with 2 players accounting for over 1/3 of your payroll.

If we refuse to acquire Abreu b/c of money then this team is truly #%&@%!. A $70 million payroll for the Orioles is ridiculous. They don't even have to keep Abreu...they could eat part of his contract and then move him to a contender for a good prospect (I'd think Abreu would approve a trade to a contender).

2003 - 125 OPS+

2004 - 122 OPS+

2005 - 112 OPS+

100 = Average

100 is average for all MLers. Wilson is a 1B/LF, so his #s have to be further adjusted for position. For 1B he's a little above average, but not by a tremendous amount.

[mikezpen]

I hadn't hear that a "youth movement" is being used as yet another excuse by the organization for doing nothing yet again. But if it is,answer me this. If the Orioles "youth movement" prevents them from signing someone like Abreu, then why did they go out and sign Conine and Millar as regulars, and also try to sign Kenny Lofton? Hmmmmmm?

MVNO post is outstanding in terms of the importance of stepping up to the plate on this.The long-term impacts of this decision are huge.

[Three Run Homer]

The bottom line on Abreu is that he is a bird in the hand, while Craig Wilson, Carlos Lee and all the rest of the free agents are just birds in the bush.

If we really have an opportunity to lock him up for two years without giving up more than Rodrigo and someone like James Johnson or Brian Finch, that's worth far more than preserving the option of making bids on free agents that might have no interest in playing for us.

We went into the last offseason knowing that we needed to sign an impact bat in LF and/or 1B. We wound up with Jeff Conine and Kevin Millar, and we fortunate in not getting stuck with Jeromy Burnitz. Why do we think this offseason will be any different?