Colon potentially ready by next year?

[Sports Guy]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

It appears Colon has either signed or will sign soon.

He said he wanted to get going and he wasn't kidding.

Just another reason I wish we had drafted him.

[mcgraw238]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

It appears Colon has either signed or will sign soon.

He said he wanted to get going and he wasn't kidding.

Just another reason I wish we had drafted him.

The bonus being reported is $2.8 million. How does this impact negotiations with Machado? We were in a small crowd who said put a $4 million-ish offer on the table for Machado and don't budge.

[Frobby]

I have never laid eyes on Machado or Colon. However, the O's had a choice between a polished college guy who would sign for less, and a high school guy who was going to be much harder to sign. They chose the high school guy. That tells me they believe Machado has a much higher ceiling than Colon. If that's what they believe, that's who they need to take. And it seems that almost every scout agrees with that choice.

[NoVaO]

Would you say the bolded was the case last year when BAL selected Hobgood? Just curious. I think it's an interesting discussion. One of the biggest arguments I read around here for grabbing Hobgood was that he'd sign early, was a solid talent and would allow for more money to be spent later on in the draft.

Now, folks are saying Machado should be the pick because he's clearly the better talent, even though he won't sign early and his cost limits what BAL can do in the rest of the draft.

I think there is merit to either strategy, personally, depending on need and the profile of the draft class.

I don't think there is merit to either strategy to be honest. It shouldn't be an either/or for the Orioles. Take the best talent in the early rounds and then snatching up players that dropped because of signability in the mid - late rounds. The money is there for them to do it. If they can offer a $22 million/year contract to Teixeira, or give $10 million to Tejada/Atkins, then they can put in an extra $10 million or so into the draft.

It's such a cheap way to put a bunch of top talent in your system and I still don't understand why they don't take full advantage of it.

And let me add, taking Machado was the easy choice. You can't ignore his upside just because Colon will reach the Majors two years earlier. And you can't just ignore the more talented players because you aren't satisfied with what kind of job player development does. Even college players have to be developed.

[Stotle]

I have never laid eyes on Machado or Colon. However, the O's had a choice between a polished college guy who would sign for less, and a high school guy who was going to be much harder to sign. They chose the high school guy. That tells me they believe Machado has a much higher ceiling than Colon. If that's what they believe, that's who they need to take. And it seems that almost every scout agrees with that choice.

I think we can at least say that a majority of the evaluators that choose to share their thoughts with BA, etc. agree with that choice. It may be that everyone else agrees (or everyone in a position to make decisions) but this is just a reminder that reported "consensus" is often times not as black and white as the actual cross section of opinions in the evaluating community.

[QBsILLEST1]

No great comps come to mind. Average range with good hands. Average arm. Plus on-base skills. Plus contact skills. Profiles at top-of-the-order. Low double-digit HRs. Average to tick below-average footspeed.

IMO offensively he sounds a lot like LJ Hoes. Really, the big difference comes on the fielding aspect. Not sure Hoes has the same type of instincts and smooth motions on the field.... Hoes may have slightly better footspeed...

Hey Stotle, what about Tim Beckham for a comp to Colon? Quick hands, good instincts, avg footspeed at best(Beckham was supposed to be a good runner, but apparently has added some muscle). Beckham probably projects to have more power because he has a wide trunk which should allow for more muscle and power in the future.....Big difference is also that Colon has a much better eye at the plate. All in all, its pretty tough to come up with a perfect comp, even if we know exactly what Colon is gonna be.....

[QBsILLEST1]

Yes, some folks will in fact go for whatever the team does. But that wasn't the crux of my point. More just finding the change in approaches interesting.

Your take is certainly logical (though I think most would say that last year had more high-end talent and this year was a little deeper in the mid-rounds). I have no insight into Jordan or his strategies, except that it looks like an area of "edge" he and staff are trying to exploit is the JuCo ranks.

Also interesting that PIT took Taillon, who should be just as expensive, if not moreso, and still shot for big money overslots in the early rounds. As I pointed out before, I think we'll see BAL spend a good amount of change, only spread out over more overslots at the HS and JuCo levels.[/QUOTE]

And there are some quality overslots that we drafted who could make this draft pretty solid, but we need to sign them. I am pretty confident that JJ will sign Urban. If he really did touch 95 at the O's pre-draft work out, I could see JJ seeing value in the fact that the book on him to all teams was a low 90's guy tops. If he had touched 95 throughout the season, his stock would have risen some more.

I don't know if it is true in the report I read on him saying he flashes a plus slider, and has a feel for a changeup, but that sounds like 2nd-3rd round quality to me when paired with a low 90(touching 95) fastball.....If nothing else, Urban offers a tremendous foundation to build a good starting pitcher on....

[Stotle]

And there are some quality overslots that we drafted who could make this draft pretty solid, but we need to sign them. I am pretty confident that JJ will sign Urban. If he really did touch 95 at the O's pre-draft work out, I could see JJ seeing value in the fact that the book on him to all teams was a low 90's guy tops. If he had touched 95 throughout the season, his stock would have risen some more.

I don't know if it is true in the report I read on him saying he flashes a plus slider, and has a feel for a changeup, but that sounds like 2nd-3rd round quality to me when paired with a low 90(touching 95) fastball.....If nothing else, Urban offers a tremendous foundation to build a good starting pitcher on....

I think this is an instance where you really need to think about all of the facts and think outside of whichever report it is you're reading. The kid is 6-1/178ish -- not quite undersized but certainly not a projectable build. Tick above-average fastball starting around April. Mixed reports on secondaries, but certainly neither the slider or change a consistent offering yet (BA reported he slows his arm speed noticeably on his change and still throws it far to hard). Reports on mechanics are that they are solid.

Taking all of that into account, how much does it matter if he "touched 95" at a workout? How much does that change the above paragraph? Does it change his general projection? Does that one piece of info (touching 95 at a workout) suddenly put him on par with other HSers who are more projectable, or have shown stuff over the past 12 months, rather than since April? Given the info above, is there reason to give significant hope he'll be touching that on a regular basis over full pro seasons? Do we expect him to get a lot stronger? These are all real questions -- and they are also the same questions I asked myself about Coffey last year. It's great to hear an organization say nice things, but we can't simply take on faith that this type of pick is automatically some sort of undiscovered diamond. If Baseball America is writing 500 words on him in their state-by-state wrap, it's probably safe to say the kid is on the radars of a bunch of area guys (and therefore a bunch or organizations).

[Stotle]

IMO offensively he sounds a lot like LJ Hoes. Really, the big difference comes on the fielding aspect. Not sure Hoes has the same type of instincts and smooth motions on the field.... Hoes may have slightly better footspeed...

Hey Stotle, what about Tim Beckham for a comp to Colon? Quick hands, good instincts, avg footspeed at best(Beckham was supposed to be a good runner, but apparently has added some muscle). Beckham probably projects to have more power because he has a wide trunk which should allow for more muscle and power in the future.....Big difference is also that Colon has a much better eye at the plate. All in all, its pretty tough to come up with a perfect comp, even if we know exactly what Colon is gonna be.....

I don't see Hoes/Colon. Risk profile is almost a complete 180, different frames, defense is another 180. Beckham, again, has a different offensive approach. Body types may be a little more similar. Defense, again, not really similar.

[Stotle]

I don't think there is merit to either strategy to be honest. It shouldn't be an either/or for the Orioles. Take the best talent in the early rounds and then snatching up players that dropped because of signability in the mid - late rounds. The money is there for them to do it. If they can offer a $22 million/year contract to Teixeira, or give $10 million to Tejada/Atkins, then they can put in an extra $10 million or so into the draft.

It's such a cheap way to put a bunch of top talent in your system and I still don't understand why they don't take full advantage of it.

And let me add, taking Machado was the easy choice. You can't ignore his upside just because Colon will reach the Majors two years earlier. And you can't just ignore the more talented players because you aren't satisfied with what kind of job player development does. Even college players have to be developed.

I think if you look closer at the draft you'll find there are diminishing returns for your dollar past a certain point in each draft. Just because the talent is discounted doesn't mean you should artificially drive-up the price of lesser talents. Agreed, you can't ignore better talents because you fear your developmental staff, but acting like there are no questions with Machado is disingenuous. Look at Austin Wilson. His ceiling is potentially a fair amount greater than Machado's. He would have signed for $6million. Why wasn't he getting top 10 hype? The questions surrounding his "now" skill set and uncertainties in the areas he needs to improve upon.

Machado may have been the easy choice for you, but there are plenty of talent evaluators that would disagree -- even if Keith Law and Baseball America write otherwise...

[allstar1579]

IMO offensively he sounds a lot like LJ Hoes. Really, the big difference comes on the fielding aspect. Not sure Hoes has the same type of instincts and smooth motions on the field.... Hoes may have slightly better footspeed...

Hey Stotle, what about Tim Beckham for a comp to Colon? Quick hands, good instincts, avg footspeed at best(Beckham was supposed to be a good runner, but apparently has added some muscle). Beckham probably projects to have more power because he has a wide trunk which should allow for more muscle and power in the future.....Big difference is also that Colon has a much better eye at the plate. All in all, its pretty tough to come up with a perfect comp, even if we know exactly what Colon is gonna be.....

Here we go with the comp. game huh? If I have to...I'd say something more along the lines of Yuniesky Betancourt than Rafael Furcal. I hate this game...

Should be a solid hit tool, with gap power (maybe 8-10hr although I've talked to others who think a bit more) not spectacular speed but could get you double digit steals, solid defense, no gold glover or anything though.

[RVAbird]

Here we go with the comp. game huh? If I have to...I'd say something more along the lines of Yuniesky Betancourt than Rafael Furcal. I hate this game...

Should be a solid hit tool, with gap power (maybe 8-10hr although I've talked to others who think a bit more) not spectacular speed but could get you double digit steals, solid defense, no gold glover or anything though.

Betancourt doesn't walk at all. I think Colon will have more patience and better on base skills, maybe a bit more pop. Betancourt has also been awful defensively over the last two and a half years.

[allstar1579]

Betancourt doesn't walk at all. I think Colon will have more patience and better on base skills, maybe a bit more pop. Betancourt has also been awful defensively over the last two and a half years.

Yeah that's why I was saying I hate the comp game. I think he ends up somewhere between the two, but that's a wide gap. Like you said, he has a great eye, should be a good OBP guy, not a ton of pop though, (not that it couldn't be there, he's shown some already, I just think it'll fade away as he moves up and he embraces the OBP game.) He's gonna have to learn to get SB with better technique at the higher levels though if he's going to be that #1 or 2 hitter he looks to be.

[NoVaO]

I think if you look closer at the draft you'll find there are diminishing returns for your dollar past a certain point in each draft. Just because the talent is discounted doesn't mean you should artificially drive-up the price of lesser talents. Agreed, you can't ignore better talents because you fear your developmental staff, but acting like there are no questions with Machado is disingenuous. Look at Austin Wilson. His ceiling is potentially a fair amount greater than Machado's. He would have signed for $6million. Why wasn't he getting top 10 hype? The questions surrounding his "now" skill set and uncertainties in the areas he needs to improve upon.

Machado may have been the easy choice for you, but there are plenty of talent evaluators that would disagree -- even if Keith Law and Baseball America write otherwise...

I'm not sure if you're misinterpreting what I'd do or what, but I wouldn't just go out and offer $3 million to this guy, $6 million to that guy, and so on to players not worth that kind of money.

Wilson was actually one of the guys I would not have taken a chance on because of the likelihood he wouldn't sign and the price tag he would have come with.

But you'll see plenty of these mid - later round players sign for a high six-figure or a low seven-figure bonus.

As for Machado, who said there are no questions? All I said was that he was a consensus top-3 talent. And that's not just coming from BA or Keith Law -- I talk to scouts too.

[Stotle]

I'm not sure if you're misinterpreting what I'd do or what, but I wouldn't just go out and offer $3 million to this guy, $6 million to that guy, and so on to players not worth that kind of money.

Wilson was actually one of the guys I would not have taken a chance on because of the likelihood he wouldn't sign and the price tag he would have come with.

But you'll see plenty of these mid - later round players sign for a high six-figure or a low seven-figure bonus.

As for Machado, who said there are no questions? All I said was that he was a consensus top-3 talent. And that's not just coming from BA or Keith Law -- I talk to scouts too.

Sorry if I misinterpreted your post -- I couldn't figure out what "neither of these approaches have merit" meant. From a quick look at the results of this year's draft, I would say there is a good chance a solid number of the Round 4-12 guys sign. I imagine the usual (generally speaking) number of signings will take place from the teens to Round 50.

The thing is (and I'm sure you realize this), some fall into that territory because of red flags while others are "pro-ready" but strongly committed to college -- not "tough sign", but "heavy long shot sign". The more time I've spent examining the draft and amateur ball players the more I've come to think that the oft heralded message board mantra of "pick the best and pay what it takes" is a little lacking in sophistication. Should teams spend more? Probably -- certainly on the whole, as many orgs don't even scratch the surface of the draft's potential. But I don't buy into it being realistic that an organization is operating at full efficiency if it's draft spend is up in the theoretical $18-19MM range ($10MM more than BAL's draft spend).

I think once you pass a certain threshold (depending on the year and make-up of the draft class on the whole) you are likely to just start throwing money at 1) a bunch of HSers that aren't necessarily ready for pro competition, 2) kids whose "now" skill set vs. upside/probability doesn't warrant the money (driving up your future "price tag" on players of that profile), and 3) kids that are ready to play pro ball but have otherwised priced themselves out due to a college commitment (again, driving up your future "price tag" on players of that profile).

To me, if you ultimately end-up with the same pull from a draft class spending $18MM as another team spending $12MM, you are not running a good draft. Yes, the money is insignificant compared to the cost of ML free agents, but I'd much rather spend $12MM, "miss out" on some of the kids who wouldn't otherwise be signed (and in my opinion probably shouldn't be signed), and pump that extra $6MM into the international market or into player development/nutrition.

EDIT -- Re: Machado, surprised you got such a convincing consensus (of course, not that I don't believe you). I got a fairly wide spectrum, though his detractors were split into two camps (so his "pro camp" was a stronger front).