Colon potentially ready by next year?

[Sports Guy]

This is what makes me so curious about this decision to take Colon.

Yeah they've got problems at SS right now, but they could shift Aviles back there, or Callapso in the long term. They've got some options, there were so many other higher rated players I'm a bit surprised.

I'm waiting for Joe Posananski to potentially write something about the pick. As a respected journalist close to that team I'd be really interested in seeing what he has to say about the whole thing.

Callaspo isn't a SS and Aviles is 29.

I would like the O's to acquire Aviles...I think he could be league average or slightly better at SS...but if you are KC and you haven't ever really committed to him and you have a chance to take an advanced SS who isn't going to require a crazy signing bonus and you can get production from him within 2 years, it is a move you make...its the one the Orioles should have made as they have even less at SS.

KC also has Betancourt for SS, who isn't good.

[Stotle]

He almost sounds like a better version of BRob coming out of college...minus the stolen bases.

Well, remember BRob basically crushed his projection and maxed-out on ceiling. So while what you say is true, some might read it and think "better than ML Roberts", which I think would be unfair. Out of college, I prefer Colon.

[Sports Guy]

Also, with BRob's career potentially winding down over the next 2-3 years, Colon could take over as the team's primary leadoff guy.

Hopefully the Orioles will develop Machado properly and this will all be a moot point...I just have zero confidence in their ability to do that.

[Sports Guy]

Well, remember BRob basically crushed his projection and maxed-out on ceiling. So while what you say is true, some might read it and think "better than ML Roberts", which I think would be unfair. Out of college, I prefer Colon.

Ok, so coming out of college, Colon seems to be a guy who profiles similarly to what BRob is now, minus the stolen bases and being capable of staying at SS.

Doubles hitter with occasional HR power...Good on base and contact guy...Top of order hitter.

If you can get that out of your SS, you have one of the better SS in the league.

[Stotle]

Ok, so coming out of college, Colon seems to be a guy who profiles similarly to what BRob is now, minus the stolen bases and being capable of staying at SS.

Doubles hitter with occasional HR power...Good on base and contact guy...Top of order hitter.

If you can get that out of your SS, you have one of the better SS in the league.

Assuming his offensive game translates and he can indeed hold down shortstop, he should be a solid producer. Those aren't guaranteed to occur, but it is a risk profile I'd gamble on, even if it means he's more of a #2-hitter 2B than a lead-off SS.

[LookinUp]

The Orioles can not compete with Boston and NY in FA...So, when you are awful and getting these high picks, you need them to succeed to be a success long term..ala TB.

I totally understand your position on Colon versus Machado, but I think this line of reasoning is flawed.

We have limited opportunities to actually obtain top level talent. We need to take them and develop those guys or, IMO, we'll never compete. I like Colon, but not at #3 in the draft. I like having a team with 6 guys like him, but I don't like a team where he might have to be the big man on campus. At #3, I think we need to get the stud, not the safe guy. We won't compete with the Yankees if we take medium talent with these opportunities.

In that sense, while I think your skepticsm is warranted, I personally think your fallback is flawed. If we can't develop any top talent, we have no chance.

Machado should force the O's to focus on and improve their positional development. He should be the subject of hundreds of discussions going all of the way up to AM, starting now and continuing weekly once he starts to play. He should not just be the next positional guy in the organization. He should be the guy that we can't afford to fail, and that has to become the focus at all levels. IMO, that can't help but trickle down in the system.

Machado had to be the guy, even if Colon would have been a nice guy to have.

[Three Run Homer]

In the end, I think history's judgment on Jordan's tenure as scouting director will come down to two decisions: the decision to take Hobgood over Matzek and the other available HS arms last year; and the decision to take Machado over Colon this year.

In the first case, he went against the consensus of the industry; in the latter case, he went with the industry consensus but arguably against the O's pressing needs and player development competencies.

Only time will tell whether he made the right calls, but these are clearly the two biggest decisions he's made in terms of their impact on the fortunes of the franchise. (Not that Wieters and Matusz weren't also important to the fortunes of the franchise, but those decisions were far more straightforward and less subject to argument).

[Hank Scorpio]

Really wish we had drafted him.

I thought you were a BPA guy?

The concensus amongst most is that Machado's ceiling is higher than Colon's.

[Lucky Jim]

Assuming his offensive game translates and he can indeed hold down shortstop, he should be a solid producer. Those aren't guaranteed to occur, but it is a risk profile I'd gamble on, even if it means he's more of a #2-hitter 2B than a lead-off SS.

The comp I heard was Polanco. Thoughts?

[Sports Guy]

I totally understand your position on Colon versus Machado, but I think this line of reasoning is flawed.

We have limited opportunities to actually obtain top level talent. We need to take them and develop those guys or, IMO, we'll never compete. I like Colon, but not at #3 in the draft. I like having a team with 6 guys like him, but I don't like a team where he might have to be the big man on campus. At #3, I think we need to get the stud, not the safe guy. We won't compete with the Yankees if we take medium talent with these opportunities.

In that sense, while I think your skepticsm is warranted, I personally think your fallback is flawed. If we can't develop any top talent, we have no chance.

Machado should force the O's to focus on and improve their positional development. He should be the subject of hundreds of discussions going all of the way up to AM, starting now and continuing weekly once he starts to play. He should not just be the next positional guy in the organization. He should be the guy that we can't afford to fail, and that has to become the focus at all levels. IMO, that can't help but trickle down in the system.

Machado had to be the guy, even if Colon would have been a nice guy to have.

Not if we continue to suck.

I get what you are saying and it is valid...if he were a more advanced player, I would be much more excited.

But even though he is a consensus top 3 player this year, I get the impression that it has more to do with a wekaer draft class than his great ability.

I like his upside, don't get me wrong...But it seems that to reach that upside, he has to be developed properly and I have no confidence in the Orioles being able to do that.

[Sports Guy]

I thought you were a BPA guy?

The concensus amongst most is that Machado's ceiling is higher than Colon's.

Usually I am.

But in this case, I'm not...because I think we need to hit on this pick and I don't think we will.

[Stotle]

The comp I heard was Polanco. Thoughts?

Don't love it. I think Colon's delta between BA and OBP should be greater. Polanco doesn't walk all that much, even if he doesn't strikeout that much either. Maybe similar defensive skillset. Colon has a chance to hit for a little more power (9-14 HR, rather than 5-10).

Not bad comp, but I think it illustrates why comps are problematic in general.

[Lucky Jim]

Don't love it. I think Colon's delta between BA and OBP should be greater. Polanco doesn't walk all that much, even if he doesn't strikeout that much either. Maybe similar defensive skillset. Colon has a chance to hit for a little more power (9-14 HR, rather than 5-10).

Not bad comp, but I think it illustrates why comps are problematic in general.

I don't disagree. They sketch out parameters but they rarely illuminate.

[Mackus]

I think Colon would have been a fine pick.

But, Machado was also a very good pick. The team isn't going to come out and say "Hey, we struggle with developing players, so we'll never take a HS position player early". That's just not how things work. You don't start trying to ask our pretty girls just because you're ugly (not that I'd know anything about that ).

I can totally understand preferring the lower ceiling / lower floor / quicker to the majors combination of Colon, and I have zero problems with anyone who would have preferred him. I'll just take issue if anyone sees Machado as a bad choice.

It was like the Smoak / Matusz debate. Plenty of reason to prefer one over the other, but in the end, either would have been fine choices that are pretty much void of criticism. The only wrong answer here is to say that one guy was a great choice while the other was a terrible choice.

[hoosiers]

While few hitters have reached the majors, this organization has done a significantly better job of moving hitting prospects through the system the past few years. Very few guys (Rowell, jury is out on Pope) drafted in the first five or so rounds are sinking in DelMarva/Frederick.

In fact, a comfortable majority (Wieters, Reimold, Snyder, Henson, Joseph, Avery, Hoes) appear to be moving through our system just fine.

Consensus seems to be Machado is a better prospect than Colon and I'm comfortable with the difference in price. Our system and our major league team need difference makers with high ceilings.