Colon potentially ready by next year?

[flashjordnk]

I disagree here...A high OBP, above average defensive SS is a huge thing for us to have.

Having a BRob type player at SS isn't a bad thing.

Yes, Machado has that great upside but he is also at least 3-4 years away and needs to be developed properly...by a team that can't really develop.

That's not to say that machado won't end up being a good pick and that the Orioles won't develop him correctly...But there is no reason to believe they will.

So then it comes back to the idea of, is machado advanced enough to overcome the problems of the organization?

I see what you're saying. It's essentially asking if you need to take risk or need to play with known quantities.

I definitely don't disagree with you that there isn't value in that, but for as bad as the Orioles are you gotta figure Colon doesn't bring more than 2 or 3 WAR at the end of any given year. Now granted Machado doesn't bring more, but the cost of what you might give up vs. the cost of what you're getting to win a few games (that won't actually mean much) doesn't seem worth it to me.

But I wouldn't say you're wrong, but just that we'd build baseball teams in very different ways.

[mweb]

Right. I don't think MWeb is one of those posters, but it appears that certain strategies only become valid once BAL uses them.

For what it's worth, I truly believe Boston nailed another draft. I'm writing it up next week, and it has much more to do with just grabbing high $$ kids. They adjusted very well to the breakdown/strengths/weaknesses of the class up top and went their usual route of going after top high school talent in the mid- to late-rounds.

BTW, thank you for saying this.

[Sports Guy]

I see what you're saying. It's essentially asking if you need to take risk or need to play with known quantities.

I definitely don't disagree with you that there isn't value in that, but for as bad as the Orioles are you gotta figure Colon doesn't bring more than 2 or 3 WAR at the end of any given year. Now granted Machado doesn't bring more, but the cost of what you might give up vs. the cost of what you're getting to win a few games (that won't actually mean much) doesn't seem worth it to me.

But I wouldn't say you're wrong, but just that we'd build baseball teams in very different ways.

Why not?

Last year, Aybar had a WAR of 3.4....Colon should be better offensively, similar defensively and not have the steals.

I see no reason to think Colon won't be a 3-4 WAR type guy.

He can certainly be BRob without the steals and that is extremely valuable and better than what most teams have at SS.

[Stotle]

I'm not saying they were right or wrong in either case.

Jordan did seem to agree with the media in this case though.

So as someone who isn't close to being a draft expert, all I have to go off is the media, posters on here like yourself, what Jordan seems to think, and the basic analysis that I can provide.

So if the vast majority of sources I see have Machado as being better than Colon, some by a good margin, and Jordan must agree with, then that's enough for me.

Last year is certainly questionable since the vast majority did not agree with Jordan.

Oh, okay. Got it. Makes perfect sense, thanks.

[oriole from cal]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/06/christian-colon.html

Yes!!! The Orioles should of drafted him. I've been here(Fullerton) at the regionals and he's easily head and shoulder better than any player there. I just don't trust the Orioles in developing young players.

[baltfan]

SportsGuy,

With all due respect, has Snyder really not been developed or is he turning into about what one would have thought when he was drafted only not at catcher?

As for Rowell, he looks like a probable bust but that happens with any team.

Neither of these guys was as highly thought of as Machado. Perhaps your perception re: the lack of ability for the Orioles to develop high schoolers is that they generally haven't picked them in high rounds.

No matter what, you can't pass up a guy with the upside of Machado.

[H0smash]

I was mad when we took Hobgood over Matzek last year, but I can't hate on Machado over Colon. I am mad, however, that we won those last two games which put us behind the Pirates but it's over.

[Sports Guy]

SportsGuy,

With all due respect, has Snyder really not been developed or is he turning into about what one would have thought when he was drafted only not at catcher?

As for Rowell, he looks like a probable bust but that happens with any team.

Neither of these guys was as highly thought of as Machado. Perhaps your perception re: the lack of ability for the Orioles to develop high schoolers is that they generally haven't picked them in high rounds.

No matter what, you can't pass up a guy with the upside of Machado.

Where did I say that?

I never mentioned HS...Just hitters in general.

Hell, they are screwing up Wieters it appears. And he is the best positional prospect to come along in a while.

His first season in the minors, he didn't have much time to change things according to what the Orioles think. He dominated.

Then, in his second season, he was just ok in AAA and was poor in the majors until last September...and he has regressed even further.

[clarence]

SG, I'm surprised you would take the lower ceiling player with that high of a pick. I see your point when it comes to someone who can get to the bigs faster, but we aren't going to win if we follow the safe route with these top picks. If you don't believe that we are ever again going to develop/ have a player develop in the system, you are wasting a lot of your life following the team. I'd rather see us fail and try to land "a-rod lite" than settle for another slightly above average player. We can't get elite players to come here, we better try and develop them. (This is one reason the Hobgood pick still makes me angry)

[baltfan]

Where did I say that?

I never mentioned HS...Just hitters in general.

Hell, they are screwing up Wieters it appears. And he is the best positional prospect to come along in a while.

His first season in the minors, he didn't have much time to change things according to what the Orioles think. He dominated.

Then, in his second season, he was just ok in AAA and was poor in the majors until last September...and he has regressed even further.

I assumed you meant high schoolers since you are advocating taking a college hitter. Why would you think they would be less likely to screw up

Colon given that you think they screwed up Wieters?

[RandyM]

I disagree here...A high OBP, above average defensive SS is a huge thing for us to have.

Having a BRob type player at SS isn't a bad thing.

Yes, Machado has that great upside but he is also at least 3-4 years away and needs to be developed properly...by a team that can't really develop.

That's not to say that machado won't end up being a good pick and that the Orioles won't develop him correctly...But there is no reason to believe they will.

So then it comes back to the idea of, is machado advanced enough to overcome the problems of the organization?

Agree with what you are staying, but that bolded part is what scares the crap out of me.

We haven't developed a positional high school player or can't. How the heck are we going to complete in the AL East?

My rant again:

- If we can't out spend or keep even in FA spending

- Can't compete internationally for amateur talent (don't what to hear about 10k signings that turn into superstars from OTHER teams. what have we done? Alex Ochoa)

- Can't compete in the amateur draft

- Don't have a GM that can multi-task (yes I am going to get flamed for this)

No lets add, we can't develop high school positional talent. How the heck are we going to compete. We aren't going to compete with a bunch of polanco/brian roberts lite. Sure we could get to 78 wins, but compete?

I see your argument. Would be nice to have starters that are sound and as hard working, but that isn't going to put us in the NY/BOS/TB class.

[Sports Guy]

I assumed you meant high schoolers since you are advocating taking a college hitter. Why would you think they would be less likely to screw up

Colon given that you think they screwed up Wieters?

Well, they may screw up Colon..it would just be hard for them to do it.

And Wieters is a power hitter...They have seemingly taken his power away.

Colin is a contact/OBP guy....hopefully that will be even harder for them to screw up.

[Sports Guy]

Agree with what you are staying, but that bolded part is what scares the crap out of me.

We haven't developed a positional high school player or can't. How the heck are we going to complete in the AL East?

My rant again:

- If we can't out spend or keep even in FA spending

- Can't compete internationally for amateur talent (don't what to hear about 10k signings that turn into superstars from OTHER teams. what have we done? Alex Ochoa)

- Can't compete in the amateur draft

- Don't have a GM that can multi-task (yes I am going to get flamed for this)

No lets add, we can't develop high school positional talent. How the heck are we going to compete. We aren't going to compete with a bunch of polanco/brian roberts lite. Sure we could get to 78 wins, but compete?

I see your argument. Would be nice to have starters that are sound and as hard working, but that isn't going to put us in the NY/BOS/TB class.

Right now, I see no reason to expect us to contend anytime soon.

I think we have the foundation in place..in terms of pure talent...But we don't have the players, coaches or development staff around them to give that foundation the proper support.

[RandyM]

Right now, I see no reason to expect us to contend anytime soon.

I think we have the foundation in place..in terms of pure talent...But we don't have the players, coaches or development staff around them to give that foundation the proper support.

We need to concentrate on fixing the problem, not the solution then. Not that I know, but shouldn't heads start to roll with the pathetic player development of positional players.

[Stotle]

Let's leave the folks out of this for a second, because it seems you're saying that some fans will go for whatever the team does even if it sounds hypocritical. The fact is that Joe Jordan felt one way last year and another way this year. Two years. Two different circumstances. Why did he feel one strategy was better last year and another this year? Could it be the players available in each year? Seems like the only logical answer to me.

Yes, some folks will in fact go for whatever the team does. But that wasn't the crux of my point. More just finding the change in approaches interesting.

Your take is certainly logical (though I think most would say that last year had more high-end talent and this year was a little deeper in the mid-rounds). I have no insight into Jordan or his strategies, except that it looks like an area of "edge" he and staff are trying to exploit is the JuCo ranks.

Also interesting that PIT took Taillon, who should be just as expensive, if not moreso, and still shot for big money overslots in the early rounds. As I pointed out before, I think we'll see BAL spend a good amount of change, only spread out over more overslots at the HS and JuCo levels.