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ARod's declining value


Frobby

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Per fangraphs:

2007 - $37.7 mm (signed extension after the season)

2008 - $27.2 mm

2009 - $20.3 mm

2010 - $15.4 mm

He still has 7 years, $180 mm ($25.7 mm per year average) left on his deal. I'm sure the Yankees aren't regretting it yet, even though he's been paid $91 mm the last 3 years and has been worth only $62.9 mm. But hopefully he keeps declining and eventually becomes an albatross.

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Per fangraphs:

2007 - $37.7 mm (signed extension after the season)

2008 - $27.2 mm

2009 - $20.3 mm

2010 - $15.4 mm

He still has 7 years, $180 mm ($25.7 mm per year average) left on his deal. I'm sure the Yankees aren't regretting it yet, even though he's been paid $91 mm the last 3 years and has been worth only $62.9 mm. But hopefully he keeps declining and eventually becomes an albatross.

The best part is he is still performing well enough to hit the escalators in his contract.

The reality is that the Yankees can afford Arod's deal, and whatever ridiculous deal CPT Jeets end up with.

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Assuming he can maintain about a 30 HR/season pace; he'll take Bonds down a notch on the all-time list in late 2015 The marketing of that alone will make the Yankees millions toward his salary as the milestone approaches. Stock up on the Pepto Bismol as the media champions that once again a pin-striper is the all-time HR king.

With HRs #400, #500, #600, #700 and more will ensure that his HOF cap will be a Yankees one.

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Assuming he can maintain about a 30 HR/season pace; he'll take Bonds down a notch on the all-time list in late 2015 The marketing of that alone will make the Yankees millions toward his salary as the milestone approaches. Stock up on the Pepto Bismol as the media champions that once again a pin-striper is the all-time HR king.

With HRs #400, #500, #600, #700 and more will ensure that his HOF cap will be a Yankees one.

I bet there will be more talk about the home run king being a self-admitted steroids user than a Yankee.

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I bet there will be more talk about the home run king being a self-admitted steroids user than a Yankee.

I get no sense that the media has any interest in killing a story that has the potential to stay topical for at least two seasons. Especially one that a good many fans are content to rationalize on the basis of "everybody did it".

As if everybody did it, but whatever...

The story will be the chase. The steroids will be a footnote that the responsible journalists will note out of duty and quickly - very quickly - move on to the highlight reel.

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Assuming he can maintain about a 30 HR/season pace; he'll take Bonds down a notch on the all-time list in late 2015 The marketing of that alone will make the Yankees millions toward his salary as the milestone approaches. Stock up on the Pepto Bismol as the media champions that once again a pin-striper is the all-time HR king.

With HRs #400, #500, #600, #700 and more will ensure that his HOF cap will be a Yankees one.

I went looking for Pepto after reading that. Ugh.

I bet there will be more talk about the home run king being a self-admitted steroids user than a Yankee.

I don't think it'll be as bad as Bonds...Bonds was so defiant up through and during the chase for #755..at least A-Rod did himself a favor and admitted it and got it out of the way early. People will still talk about it, but I don't think the controversy will be as rampant as it was for Bonds.

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When you are in the World Series hunt year after year, and making tons of money in revenue, you can easily absorb the excessiveness of ARod contract. He is still one of the best players in the game and we'd be kidding ourselves if we really think this will be a problem for the MFY.

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Question for you fangraph experts.

How often does a big ticket free agent actually played above the worth of his contract? Like his contract was 20 mil a year and he was 22.5 mil. Not just for one year, but lets say at least 4 out of the 6 years.

Occasionally. But it's not going to be very often. You have to consider how the Fangraphs values are calculated and how free agent contracts come about.

First off, the deck is stacked against the player earning his salary:

1) Almost all free agents are at least in their late 20s, and the average peak age is 27.

2) Teams often sign deals with an optimistic take on age-related decline.

3) The deals are almost all guaranteed money, so injuries often blow up a deal.

So teams will sign a guy like Mo Vaughn (or Ryan Howard) to a 6/80 deal at the age of 31, based on his production up to that point, and expecting a graceful decline through his late 30s. Reality then intrudes, and he's already in decline at 31, that accelerates through his early 30s, and he's out of the league by 35. So he's been worth a tiny fraction of that $80M.

Most big ticket deals are like that to some degree. Vaughn might be a worse-than-average example. But I'd guesstimate 80% of players with 3+ year contracts end up being worth far less than their contracts. This is why I'm very conservative when arguing for free agent signings - you're going in with the assumption that it won't work out on straight value for the dollar. You almost have to make a playoff run or two to not get destroyed on the deal.

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