BA: Projected 2014 O's lineup and O's top 10 prospects

[QBsILLEST1]

If Avery is as high as fourth, it's because there's nothing better, not because he's shown all that much. Doing nothing in Arizona right now and did little after moving up from Frederick last year.

This year's top 10...20...30 will be the weakest it's been in a long time...partially because some guys have moved up and because the last couple of drafts haven't been that great.

Yeah, you are way off base here. Avery is a legit prospect. Prospects are about what you project them to be, with Avery there is a lot of projecting as far as physical projection is concerned, but also his tools in general. The fact that he has developed so much from what he was when he was drafted, makes him a good prospect. Also, the fact that he hit well in HiA as one of the youngest in the league to go along with a much improved BB rate as well as steadily improving power, OF routes, and base stealing ability really bodes well for him and his future.....

[Frobby]

If Avery is as high as fourth, it's because there's nothing better, not because he's shown all that much. Doing nothing in Arizona right now and did little after moving up from Frederick last year.

This year's top 10...20...30 will be the weakest it's been in a long time...partially because some guys have moved up and because the last couple of drafts haven't been that great.

Avery's a solid prospect at this point. I agree that if he's as high as 4th, it's a sign that there's not much upper echelon talent in the organization at the moment.

I'm not sure I'd say our last two drafts were weak. However, Hobgood doesn't appear to be in the same universe as Wieters, Matusz and Machado, so that really stings when you look at the very top of our list. A guy who was no. 5 overall really ought to be in the top 3 in our system, if he was coming anywhere close to justifying that pick.

Beyond Hobgood, I think the big problem has been that injuries haven't allowed us to see whether some of the high picks and overslots deserve to be ranked near the top. Givens, Townsend, Coffey, Wirsch and others just haven't had a chance to show what they can do yet. If some of them have strong years next year, the 2009-10 drafts won't look bad at all.

[Sports Guy]

Personally, I think its Machado, Britton and Klein(as a reliever especially) and then a bunch of question marks with upside..pull their names out of a hat and any order is fine.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Personally, I think its Machado, Britton and Klein(as a reliever especially) and then a bunch of question marks with upside..pull their names out of a hat and any order is fine.

I have put Klein higher on my personal list than most. In the CWS he looked like he was not far from pitching in MLB, in some role. He would be a very fast mover as a reliever. But even as a starter, he might be further advanced than many of us here suspect. I would have no qualms about giving him the Matusz treatment--start him at Frederick, then be ready to move him to Bowie ASAP.

[QBsILLEST1]

Personally, I think its Machado, Britton and Klein(as a reliever especially) and then a bunch of question marks with upside..pull their names out of a hat and any order is fine.

I think Avery, Hoes and Givens will be right there too(in a different tier than Britton or Machado), especially in BA's top 10....Then Snyder, Adams, Hobgood, maybe Joseph, Bundy or POSSIBLY Beal....

[incubus]

From what I saw of Avery in Bowie this year, I have high hopes for the kid. I think I value him more than other people on here though.

I got to see Flacco in two games, one in Aberdeen, where he impressed me, then in Delmarva, where most of the team was a disappointment.

Mummey was impressive when I saw him also, mainly because it was like a week after we signed him.

[Frobby]

By the way, am I the only one impressed by Ryan Berry? He'd be in my top 10 somewhere.

[QBsILLEST1]

By the way, am I the only one impressed by Ryan Berry? He'd be in my top 10 somewhere.

Depends on if you think he sticks as a starter....I have him in my own personal top 10 at #6. 2011 will be big for him as far as proving he can hold up over an entire season.....

[Sports Guy]

I have put Klein higher on my personal list than most. In the CWS he looked like he was not far from pitching in MLB, in some role. He would be a very fast mover as a reliever. But even as a starter, he might be further advanced than many of us here suspect. I would have no qualms about giving him the Matusz treatment--start him at Frederick, then be ready to move him to Bowie ASAP.

If they kept Klein as a reliever, as they should, he would be here by the middle of the year IMO.

[RVAbird]

By the way, am I the only one impressed by Ryan Berry? He'd be in my top 10 somewhere.

No. I was about to post that I'm still much higher on him than most.

Some fear he'll be relegated to the bullpen. It's early, but I think he can stick in a rotation. He'll need to build up arm strength a bit but you could see him in 2012. #3 upside. As long as he stays healthy I have little doubt he'll be a ML contributor.

[RVAbird]

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but THT released their top 10 for Baltimore last week. For discussion's sake:

Baltimore Orioles: Top 10 Prospects

1. Manny Machado / 3B/SS / Baltimore made a solid pick in the 2010 draft with Machado. He has some tools that will translate right away and the potential for everything else. He reminds me of Mike Moustakas.

2. Zach Britton / SP / Britton is a classic groundball pitcher who gets the job done wherever he goes. He will never be an ace, but he's one step away from forcing groundballs in the middle of Baltimore's rotation.

3. Matt Hobgood / SP / Hobgood at #3 gives you an idea of how far Baltimore's farm system fell this year. He had a lousy debut season. His curveball came highly touted, but looked like a complete work in progress this year. There's no reason to give up on him yet, though.

4. Xavier Avery / OF / Avery is the kind of player who draws your attention. He looks and sometimes plays the part of athletic difference maker. However, his plate approach and strikeout rate will doom his future if he doesn't improve.

5. Ryan Adams / 2B / With his power jumping a notch this year, Adams looks the part of a future major league asset at second base. I would like to see him refine his plate approach, but he is deserving of attention.

6. Joe Mahoney / 1B / Mahoney was a relative unknown coming into the season. His raw power finally surfaced against the most advanced pitching he has seen so far. He is more athletic than he looks, and his contact rate is developing.

7. Mychal Givens / SS/3B/2B / A thumb injury held up Givens' season, yet he played at four different levels, from the Gulf Coast League all the way to the Carolina League. He has impressive tools and a world of work in front of him.

8. Ryan Berry / SP/RP / Berry has an average three-pitch mix. His command is strong for his age, but his endurance as a starter is the No. 1 question he faces right now. Limited upside as a starter or reliever hurts his stock.

9. Brandon Erbe / RP/SP / A disastrous season statistically turned into a disastrous season on the injury front. Erbe recently underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum, but the word is that the tear wasn't as bad as originally thought. He has a good chance at recovery. Couple his odds of recovery with his plus velocity pre-injury and the weakened state of Baltimore's farm system, and you're looking at No. 9.

10. LJ Hoes / 2B / It was difficult finding someone worthy of No. 10. I refuse to buy into Brandon Waring, and Brandon Snyder has officially fallen off of my radar screen. I thought about dipping into Baltimore's 2010 draft class, but continually find myself shying away from the class' outlook. I decided on Hoes because of his age, continually impressive batting average, and walk rate. On the downside, there isn't much projection in him.

Baltimore Orioles: Top 10 Players Under Age 26 (as of 4/1/11)

1. Matt Wieters / C

2. Brian Matusz / SP

3. Adam Jones / OF

4. Manny Machado / 3B/SS

5. Chris Tillman / SP

6. Zach Britton / SP

7. Jake Arrieta / SP

8. Josh Bell / 3B

9. Matt Hobgood / SP

10. Xavier Avery / OF

Link

[QBsILLEST1]

Mike Moustakas? What exactly reminds THT of Mike Moustakas?

I also disagree with the placement of Mahoney...

Berry's endurance isn't the question really, I don't think this guy realized that he was on a 5 IP limit. His biggest question is durability.....Also thought the curve was better than "average" but I have never seen it so I could be wrong....

Hoes to me is deserving of more than a #10 spot....

[Arthur_Bryant]

Mike Moustakas? What exactly reminds THT of Mike Moustakas?

Fast-moving HS hitter who started at SS. Possibly they think that Machado will not stick at SS. If so, then Moustakas today probably represents a reasonable projection for Machado in three years.

Would you trade Machado for Moustakas today?

I would, in a heartbeat.

[Sports Guy]

Mike Moustakas? What exactly reminds THT of Mike Moustakas?

I also disagree with the placement of Mahoney...

Berry's endurance isn't the question really, I don't think this guy realized that he was on a 5 IP limit. His biggest question is durability.....Also thought the curve was better than "average" but I have never seen it so I could be wrong....

Hoes to me is deserving of more than a #10 spot....

Maybe, maybe not.

End of the day, as I said, once you get past the to 2 guys, pick names out of a hat and put them where ever.

There isn't anyone else that stands out.

We have potential in the system but it is years away and may never be realized.

The other guy I like is Klein. He is very good IMO.

But he is going to be starter, which puts him a minimum of 2 years away and perhaps 4 years away before we can rely on him being a 200ish IP pitcher, if he ever gets to that. So, there is a lot of reason to doubt him and his health as they convert him back to a starter.

[Stotle]

Fast-moving HS hitter who started at SS. Possibly they think that Machado will not stick at SS. If so, then Moustakas today probably represents a reasonable projection for Machado in three years.

Would you trade Machado for Moustakas today?

I would, in a heartbeat.

Moustakas is built like a tank (around 5'11/235). Machado is long and lean (around 6'3/190). They aren't really similar in the field. Maybe Moustakas's production as a MiLer is what the author expects for Machado, but I don't see how you could look at one and think of the other (my assumption, therefore, is that the author hasn't actually seen them play -- maybe some video).