Prince Fielder or Bust

[Napoleon Solo]

How long have you've been around the hangout.....The excuse were not ready to do that yet has been going on for years. Also the Orioles won't involve themselves in a bidding war in a deal that will probably net more than $180 Million. There best chance is now by far.

If Melvin can get 4-5 players from a team that will be ready sooner & likely better than the 2 draft picks they will get when they lose him in free agency its a win for them.

There fans suffer through their players leaving for the money all the time. They may not like the reality...But they know its coming...1 more season of Fielder means they lose him for the picks alone.

If Fielder wera an FA now, then I'd be happy for the O's to throw the money at him. With the way the FO has handled contract negotiations in the past I believe that it is too much to gamble on a Boras client extension. Sure worst case scenario we get a couple picks but what we will give up is too high a price and we will be back where we started with a big vacancy sign hanging over first base.

Save the prospects for trades involving players with more service time. Fielder will almost definitely be there if the O's really want him next offseason.

[Mark Carver]

This kind of thinking is getting us nowhere fast.If we had a time machine we could go back and look at all our UNTOUCHABLE peices.

You remember when Ponson was untouchable?How about Cabrera?How would you like to go back in time and trade them for a very useful roll of toliet paper?

Change the year and we have had more untouchable prospects than spots on the roster.

Could Britton be great...he could be.Is Feilder great...YES.This is a no brainer trade

On top of that pitcher for slugger trade you do 8 days a week.

Sorry, but you don't trade anybody worth their weight in gold for a 1 year rental. Not with the current makeup of the team...

[TinCup]

Now? This off season? Fielder or Bust?

Bust.

Mind you, me thinks I will be saying the same thing next year, but anyeee whoooooo

[O'sFanThruJune]

Throwing the bank at him may not be enough. Having the advantage of him being an Oriole for a year and playing with Markakis, Jones and Wieters etc, would really help us IMO.

I might have missed some discussion in my quick scroll through the thread, but has anyone ever offered any backup to this oft-stated or implied belief?

Did Teixeira re-sign with the Angels?

Did Cliff Lee re-sign with the Rangers?

Did Sabathia re-sign with the Brewers?

Did Beltran re-sign with the Astros?

Where is the proof that having a guy on your team for his final year before free agency provides a boost to his likelihood to stay? This is not the same as a guy staying with the team his been with his whole career. The only examples I can think of are for guys that got traded to the biggest spending teams, and then (duh) stayed with the big spenders when they hit free agency (e.g., Schilling, Beckett, A-Rod)

[MrOrange82]

I might have missed some discussion in my quick scroll through the thread' date=' but has anyone ever offered any backup to this oft-stated or implied belief?

Did Teixeira re-sign with the Angels?

Did Cliff Lee re-sign with the Rangers?

Did Sabathia re-sign with the Brewers?

Did Beltran re-sign with the Astros?

Where is the proof that having a guy on your team for his final year before free agency provides a boost to his likelihood to stay? This is not the same as a guy staying with the team his been with his whole career. The only examples I can think of are for guys that got traded to the biggest spending teams, and then (duh) stayed with the big spenders when they hit free agency (e.g., Schilling, Beckett, A-Rod)[/quote']

Cliff Lee just provided an interesting, new example (traded to the Phillies, really liked it there, took less money to go back), but overall I do think that line of reasoning is outmoded. Players typically follow the money, and Fielder's agent isn't one to encourage straying from that mindset.

[Riggodrill44]

Sorry, but you don't trade anybody worth their weight in gold for a 1 year rental. Not with the current makeup of the team...

This is where we will differ.The consesus on this board is that Briitton is WORTH HIS WEIGHT in GOLD.He shouldn't be included in any deal no matter who we get back.

This is flawed thinking.Time has shown us that 99% of our can't miss prospects miss badly.

I would have no problem getting Feilder right now,for this season and watch him play at the Yard.If we can't resign him after making an offer between Gonzalez and Ryan Howard then we take the 2 draft picks and move on.

[JTrea81]

I might have missed some discussion in my quick scroll through the thread' date=' but has anyone ever offered any backup to this oft-stated or implied belief?

Did Teixeira re-sign with the Angels?

Did Cliff Lee re-sign with the Rangers?

Did Sabathia re-sign with the Brewers?

Did Beltran re-sign with the Astros?

Where is the proof that having a guy on your team for his final year before free agency provides a boost to his likelihood to stay? This is not the same as a guy staying with the team his been with his whole career. The only examples I can think of are for guys that got traded to the biggest spending teams, and then (duh) stayed with the big spenders when they hit free agency (e.g., Schilling, Beckett, A-Rod)[/quote']

The Angels didn't offer Tex enough to change his preference for the East Coast.

Cliff Lee gave the Rangers an opportunity for the 7th year - they declined.

Sabathia, again wasn't offered enough by the Brewers

Beltran wanted to stay an Astro but the Mets offered more.

[GoldGlove21]

The Angels didn't offer Tex enough to change his preference for the East Coast.

Cliff Lee gave the Rangers an opportunity for the 7th year - they declined.

Sabathia, again wasn't offered enough by the Brewers

Beltran wanted to stay an Astro but the Mets offered more.

I heard something about Fielder being interested in playing for a West Coast team, but wasn't he from Florida? If that is the case, then I can imagine the A's, Diamondbacks, Angels, Dodgers, and Giants making a run at him. If he wants to stay on the East Coast then the Nationals, Orioles, Cubs, and Blue Jays could all be in the bidding. Either way, there shouldn't ne any fewer than 6 or 7 teams bidding on Fielder. I have seen nothing to make me believe he will spurn others to sign here if the money is within +/-5% of the Orioles offer.

People seem to think that players always pick their destination based on money, but so many factors dictate where people will decide to play. Preferences are based on geographical region, taxes, relationship with future team members, chance to win, and even spoken languages.

I remember rumors that Guerrero turned down the Orioles offer years ago because Baltimore didn't have a big enough Spanish speaking region.

[El Gordo]

I heard something about Fielder being interested in playing for a West Coast team, but wasn't he from Florida? If that is the case, then I can imagine the A's, Diamondbacks, Angels, Dodgers, and Giants making a run at him. If he wants to stay on the East Coast then the Nationals, Orioles, Cubs, and Blue Jays could all be in the bidding. Either way, there shouldn't ne any fewer than 6 or 7 teams bidding on Fielder. I have seen nothing to make me believe he will spurn others to sign here if the money is within +/-5% of the Orioles offer.

People seem to think that players always pick their destination based on money, but so many factors dictate where people will decide to play. Preferences are based on geographical region, taxes, relationship with future team members, chance to win, and even spoken languages.

I remember rumors that Guerrero turned down the Orioles offer years ago because Baltimore didn't have a big enough Spanish speaking region.

Barton, Morales, Belt. Why would teams with decent 1B options want to spend on Fielder. The LAD's yes. The D'backs? Don't have the money, IMO.

[GoldGlove21]

Barton, Morales, Belt. Why would teams with decent 1B options want to spend on Fielder. The LAD's yes. The D'backs? Don't have the money, IMO.

So let's say we have LaRoche, does that mean we do not pursue Fielder? Barton, Morales, Belt are not Prince Fielder.

[crowmst3k!]

I just don't think the Orioles have enough depth/enough chips to effectively trade for Fielder.

Britton is untouchable, IMO. Matusz as well. Arrieta, too. The common component for the past decade plus of futility has been no starting pitching. The O's are on the verge of a special, young rotation...and some people want to dismantle it for a year of Prince Fielder's bat.

Not a good move.

Then you look at the positional depth in the minors, and who do you really have to choose from? Manny Machado? Nobody is going to bite on a Prince Fielder for Tillman, Waring, Mahoney, Givens deal...they're just not.

Again, this comes to the farm system having been so neglected for such a long time that moves like this become impossible, or extremely detrimental if they are made. Just because the O's could really use a big bat like Fielder, doesn't mean they have the accumulated minor league talent to pull a deal like that off.

[El Gordo]

So let's say we have LaRoche, does that mean we do not pursue Fielder? Barton, Morales, Belt are not Prince Fielder.

I would much rather have any of those three, over Fielder. They are younger cheaper, play better defense, and are excellent all round hitters. LaRoche isn't in their league.

[GoldGlove21]

I would much rather have any of those three, over Fielder. They are younger cheaper, play better defense, and are excellent all round hitters. LaRoche isn't in their league.

I might want one of those guys over LaRoche, but over Fielder? Fielder can straight mash, I do not think any of those guys are in Fielder's realm offensively.

Barton .798 OPS in 2010, .784 in 2009

Morales .833 OPS in 2010, .924 in 2009

LaRoche .788 OPS in 2010, .843 in 2009

Fielder .871 OPS in 2010, 1.014 in 2009

Fielder was worth a combined 11 WAR in the same time period.

LaRoche- 4.7 WAR

Morales- 5.9 WAR

Barton- 5.7

That makes Fielder worth more than 3 more wins a year over the same two year span. If I go back further the numbers do not look any better.

Fielders fWar over that same two year period is a combined -9.1

LaRoche 5.4

Morales 11.3

Barton 14.4

I think we can see that Fielder is by far the worse fielder in this group, but his offense more than makes up for it. If he were to DH and a guy like LaRoche play first, then his War would only go up due to the negative fWar pulling it down.

Based on value:

Barton $23.2M

LaRoche $19.9M

Morales $25.9M

Fielder $47.3M

So Fielder is valued at almost twice as any of the options you mentioned over the last 2 years. Fielder has been valued at a total of $80.8M over the last 4 years.

If the argument is that these guys are cheaper than Fielder without the weight issues, then it is hard to argue that point. If it is based on potential impact then Fielder is a slam dunk. He is a legit MVP candidate on a good team and could really help this team moving forward. All of that being said, I am not in a hurry to give up the prospects it would take to trade for him only to see him take the best offer on the table as a free agent.

[JTrea81]

I just don't think the Orioles have enough depth/enough chips to effectively trade for Fielder.

Britton is untouchable, IMO. Matusz as well. Arrieta, too. The common component for the past decade plus of futility has been no starting pitching. The O's are on the verge of a special, young rotation...and some people want to dismantle it for a year of Prince Fielder's bat.

Not a good move.

Then you look at the positional depth in the minors, and who do you really have to choose from? Manny Machado? Nobody is going to bite on a Prince Fielder for Tillman, Waring, Mahoney, Givens deal...they're just not.

Again, this comes to the farm system having been so neglected for such a long time that moves like this become impossible, or extremely detrimental if they are made. Just because the O's could really use a big bat like Fielder, doesn't mean they have the accumulated minor league talent to pull a deal like that off.

First of all Arrieta shouldn't be untouchable. He can be replaced.

And again people think dealing three players is going to kill the farm system. If that's the case, just contract the Orioles now. Players can be replaced.

We can draft another Arrieta. The chance to acquire a slugger like Fielder is less likely IMO, especially if we sign a Type A FA after 2011 and lose our first round pick.

All of that being said, I am not in a hurry to give up the prospects it would take to trade for him only to see him take the best offer on the table as a free agent.

And what happens if we have that best offer?

[MrOrange82]

And what happens if we have that best offer?

I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that...well, Fielder just ate the point I was about to make. Damn.