Rendon

[allstar1579]

I've never seen Rendon play and I don't have the ability to evaluate any player at any level. But I don't see how you can't be leery of a player that seems to have injuries that affect his play for long stretches. Hasn't it been three years in a row that Rendon has had an injury?

After last year's draft, the consensus top three picks were Cole, Purke and Rendon(in various orders). At some point over the winter, it seems that all the evaluators came to the conclusion(seemingly at the same time) that Purke was an injury risk. After that, his draft status dropped like a stone to the point that now some mock drafts have him being taken in the compensatory picks. I know he was "injured" this spring, but why had he already been downgraded because of a POTENTIAL injury, but Rendon has not dropped despite his REAL injuries?

There are supposed to be too many good to great pitching prospects available this year. I would rather have the O's take a chance on one of them rather than a player who might not be able to stay healthy.

Short answer, because Purke's injuries were predictable and as result of his mechanics. Rendon's were actual accidents. Rendon's ankles didn't effect his play, they were in the post season, and while he missed some summer ball because of it, summer ball is by no means required to be a top prospect. The shoulder MAY have bothered his bat speed a little bit, and I'm sure it has kept him out of the field, but in his draft eligible season, it can't be that bad if he's playing through it. It's like statistics and their misuse. People want to look at a bad stretch of stats and then label someone as an underperformed, or in this case, injury prone, when they are coincidental more than correlation. If you could find something in his approach that made him an injury risk, then maybe you could compare him to Purke.

[Stotle]

I think you are over-reacting. Rendon is a premium talent.

Frobby only noted other 3B prospects that were premium talents who have started off their pro careers in less than stellar fashion and, while some now say there were worries about Alvarez's swing when he was drafted, there may have been some minor comments, but the Pedro Alvarez was supposed to be a beast of a hitter almost right away.

Now, even noting Rendon's uber-prospect status, we are hearing that Hultzen may be drafted first and also hearing that Bundy is in the discussion as a very early pick.

I do not see why there is an issue if Frobby asks why Rendon will be so much better than Alvarez or to ask why some guys might be drafted higher now.

At the end of the day, I think we are splitting hairs. I am glad to hear of that Hultzen and Bundy are now being considered among the elite talents as it means there are additional legit top five talents deserving of similar (or at least pretty darn close) prospect status to Cole and Rendon. As long as the Os end up with one of them on draft day, I'll be happy.

I said I can't believe anyone reputable would have him going in the supplemental round, and followed it with "this is getting out of hand." That is an overreaction to you?

I don't have an issue with Frobby asking a question, but the comparison is not a good one. Rendon is better than Alvarez by a clear and wide margin. Their games and skillsets are not similar. It is not a good comp to make, and it was done (unknowingly) without properly putting Alvarez's actual junior season into context. It is not Frobby's fault, but he was framing a conversation in a way that misrepresented facts. Do you disagree with this?

You follow the draft closely enough that I'm sure you understand that Hultzen being discussed at 1:1 has little to do with him actually being the top talent in the draft, right? Cole topped at 98 last night -- Hultzen, I believe, at 93. Taking away a rough production patch for Cole (about 4 weeks or so), do you think there would be any debate at all about whether Hultzen should go before Cole in the draft unless it had to do with money or some sort of off-field concerns (of which fans would generally not be aware)?

[Frobby]

I said I can't believe anyone reputable would have him going in the supplemental round, and followed it with "this is getting out of hand." That is an overreaction to you?

I don't have an issue with Frobby asking a question, but the comparison is not a good one. Rendon is better than Alvarez by a clear and wide margin. Their games and skillsets are not similar. It is not a good comp to make, and it was done (unknowingly) without properly putting Alvarez's actual junior season into context. It is not Frobby's fault, but he was framing a conversation in a way that misrepresented facts. Do you disagree with this?

You follow the draft closely enough that I'm sure you understand that Hultzen being discussed at 1:1 has little to do with him actually being the top talent in the draft, right? Cole topped at 98 last night -- Hultzen, I believe, at 93. Taking away a rough production patch for Cole (about 4 weeks or so), do you think there would be any debate at all about whether Hultzen should go before Cole in the draft unless it had to do with money or some sort of off-field concerns (of which fans would generally not be aware)?

I don't know anything about the relative skillsets of Alvarez vs. Rendon. The similarity I was addressing was the was numerous posters here drew the conclusion after their sophomore seasons that they would be no-brainer no. 1 picks the following year, and how some people simply couldn't adjust their thinking about that no matter what happened the next year. My analogy has nothing to do with the merits of the two players. And, I'm merely asking about it. I don't watch any college baseball and have never seen Rendon play; and even if I did, I wouldn't have the scouting skills to have a serious opinion about how his abilities would translate to MLB. So, I rely on others like you to tell me what you think.

As to Cole vs. Hultzen, again I have no opinion, except to say that velocity isn't everything.

[allstar1579]

I don't know anything about the relative skillsets of Alvarez vs. Rendon. The similarity I was addressing was the was numerous posters here drew the conclusion after their sophomore seasons that they would be no-brainer no. 1 picks the following year, and how some people simply couldn't adjust their thinking about that no matter what happened the next year. My analogy has nothing to do with the merits of the two players. And, I'm merely asking about it. I don't watch any college baseball and have never seen Rendon play; and even if I did, I wouldn't have the scouting skills to have a serious opinion about how his abilities would translate to MLB. So, I rely on others like you to tell me what you think.

As to Cole vs. Hultzen, again I have no opinion, except to say that velocity isn't everything.

With Alvarez, he injured a bone in his hand that really effects batting, it took a long time for it to heal enough to get back to normal. Since he has been in the pros he has had issues with conditioning, not staying in shape through the offseason, hence his slow starting. I saw him in the minors after he got over that slow start thing and he was exactly as advertised. As I recall there were whispers about his conditioning a little before he was drafted, mostly in form of worry that he wouldn't be able to stick at 3rd, this is not a problem with Rendon in the least.

And with Cole v Danny, keep in mind I'm a huge Hultzen fan, but Cole is head and shoulders a better prospect. He's got 2 plus-plus pitches and another one that could get there with a little work. A plus-plus pitch is a pitcher's go-to unhittable out pitch, think Hamels change up, Britton's sinker, Mussina's knuckle-curve. To see a guy with 3 of them is just NASTY. So the velocity is nice and all, but the fact that his slider and his change are that nasty makes Cole pretty much the ultimate power pitcher. Just clarifying what makes him stand out.

[Stotle]

I don't know anything about the relative skillsets of Alvarez vs. Rendon. The similarity I was addressing was the was numerous posters here drew the conclusion after their sophomore seasons that they would be no-brainer no. 1 picks the following year, and how some people simply couldn't adjust their thinking about that no matter what happened the next year. My analogy has nothing to do with the merits of the two players. And, I'm merely asking about it. I don't watch any college baseball and have never seen Rendon play; and even if I did, I wouldn't have the scouting skills to have a serious opinion about how his abilities would translate to MLB. So, I rely on others like you to tell me what you think.

As to Cole vs. Hultzen, again I have no opinion, except to say that velocity isn't everything.

Right. I guess what I am saying is that pointing to Alvarez and asking why Rendon won't be the same is similar (not the same, but similar) to pointing at Rowell and asking why Machado won't be the same. Alvarez was primarily a power bat though some (myself included) felt his bat speed would be enough to overcome his longish swing and allow him to hit for some average, too. Defensively, he was a "will he stick at third?" guy.

Rendon is first and foremost a hitter -- good bat speed, good barrel control, top tier approach and understanding of the strikezone. Power is potentially a question since we haven't seen him in extended action with wood or healthy with the newer bats. But signs point to him having at least a tick above-average playable power. Defensively, he is one of the best third basemen in college baseball, though he has not been able to play the field this year.

Agree re: velo. It was an illustration of the comparative merits of one pitch only. As AS points out, Cole throws a better slider and while his change-up is behind Hultzen's for me. some evaluators have called it the best in the class, as well. He is more physical, and has a track record of extended success through the summer, while Hultzen has struggled before this year to maintain velocity/quality deep into starts, and took off last summer to rest.

[hoosiers]

I don't have an issue with Frobby asking a question, but the comparison is not a good one. Rendon is better than Alvarez by a clear and wide margin. Their games and skillsets are not similar. It is not a good comp to make, and it was done (unknowingly) without properly putting Alvarez's actual junior season into context. It is not Frobby's fault, but he was framing a conversation in a way that misrepresented facts. Do you disagree with this?

No, I do not agree because, as Frobby subsequently explained - and explained in the original post, his question was about more basic similarities. Frobby doesn't follow the draft closely and was certainly not "framing" his post in any particular way.

The BA draft writeup for Alvarez has the following phrase - Alvarez has been one of the most feared college hitters for all three years he has been in school. Blessed with plus raw power, he is also an advanced hitter with a professional approach.

I doubt this source was where Frobby's question originated, but I believe the Alvarez/Rendon comp was a much more basic one - that both were elite hitters as in the quote above, considered elite hitters for a long time before draft day, that both were 3B prospects, possibly that both were injured near the draft.

If you want to provide a more detailed explanation regarding why Rendon is a better prospect than Alvarez "by a clear and wide margin", I am sure all of us here (including Frobby and myself) would appreciate that.

[Stotle]

No, I do not agree because, as Frobby subsequently explained - and explained in the original post, his question was about more basic similarities. Frobby doesn't follow the draft closely and was certainly not "framing" his post in any particular way.

The BA draft writeup for Alvarez has the following phrase - Alvarez has been one of the most feared college hitters for all three years he has been in school. Blessed with plus raw power, he is also an advanced hitter with a professional approach.

I doubt this source was where Frobby's question originated, but I believe the Alvarez/Rendon comp was a much more basic one - that both were elite hitters as in the quote above, considered elite hitters for a long time before draft day, that both were 3B prospects, possibly that both were injured near the draft.

If you want to provide a more detailed explanation regarding why Rendon is a better prospect than Alvarez "by a clear and wide margin", I am sure all of us here (including Frobby and myself) would appreciate that.

Come on, hoosiers. Rendon's Freshman season stacks up with anything Alvarez did in college. His sophomore season blows away anything Alvarez did in college. These are easy stats to look up. If you want to have an honest discussion about it, fine. You follow this stuff reasonably closely, right?

http://thebaseballcube.com/profile.asp?P=Anthony-Rendon

http://thebaseballcube.com/profile.asp?P=Pedro-Alvarez

And I provided an indepth explanation/comparison already -- just read the rest of the posts in this thread. My thoughts on draft players are also easy to find at www.diamondscapescouting.com should you be curious as to what I'm thinking.

As I said, Frobby wasn't intending to frame a discussion around a poor comparison, but he did. I think some people would have something to say if I started off a thread in "Minors" with:

"I don't follow this closely at all, but tell me why I shouldn't look at Manny Machado and think he's just another Tim Beckham. They are both top 5 draft shortstops."

Don't know why you are taking exception to my responses in this thread -- I am just expressing my opinion as to why Rendon/Alvarez aren't good players to comp (which they are not, at all). As an aside I noted that someone's claim that Rendon is being floated in the supplemental round by some mock drafts was evidence of poor mock drafts and nothing else. These shouldn't be controversial positions I'm putting forth. If you can provide a more detailed reason that they are, I would appreciate that. One broadly phrased statement about Alvarez's general offensive capabilities (that doesn't address swing mechanics at all) from BA isn't sufficient, I don't think, if you really want to compare players.

[hoosiers]

Not taking exception to anything. Frobby asked a simple question. Not sure why you have decided it is important that the question was "framed" incorrectly, but it probably has to do with why I post with you so little.

I should have deleted my last post after realizing you had replied.

[Stotle]

Not taking exception to anything. Frobby asked a simple question. Not sure why you have decided it is important that the question was "framed" incorrectly, but it probably has to do with why I post with you so little.

I should have deleted my last post after realizing you had replied.

How the question is framed dictates the conversation. I was just clearing that up so we don't get a narrative that Rendon is equivalent to Alvarez (which is possible). You haven't added anything at all -- zero -- to the conversation except to say I'm overreacting and Frobby is entitled to ask questions. Thanks for keeping the board safe, I guess? As an informed draft/prospect guy, it's puzzling you still have yet to show any useful similarities between ALvarez and Rendon other than they are both high draft 3b.

I'll leave the rest of your post alone -- feel free to continue to cry to me about all of the injustices I inflict upon you via private message rather than clogging the board with it...

Sincerely,

The mean, mean boogieman than ruins your experiences on the board. :laughlol:

[stuckin82]

Actually I had read it as Panick saying Purke had slipped to supplemental round not Rendon...

[Stotle]

Actually I had read it as Panick saying Purke had slipped to supplemental round not Rendon...

You're absolutely right. I went back and re-read it, and that is exactly what he said. My apologies to panick for misreading his post.

[oriolefan1035]

I thought about posting this type of thread the other day. Admittedly, I know nothing about these guys, but after looking at this years numbers, I have to ask myself why Rendon's numbers have taken such a hit. I realize there's explanations, but simply put, the numbers aren't there. I've warmed to the HS guys I've heard about most lately - Bundy and Starling.

[Can_of_corn]

I thought about posting this type of thread the other day. Admittedly, I know nothing about these guys, but after looking at this years numbers, I have to ask myself why Rendon's numbers have taken such a hit. I realize there's explanations, but simply put, the numbers aren't there. I've warmed to the HS guys I've heard about most lately - Bundy and Starling.

Keep in mind they changed the bats.

[RandyM]

Stotle, thanks for contributing to the board. It seems a couple read a BA or Keith Law blog and think they are experts. On top of that they have our orange tinted glasses.

Thanks for providing an opinion without bias. It might not always be correct, but better than posters that only have a "gut feeling".

BTW, can you do piece on the life of a scout. I loved the small post that you did about the one player you almost left without seeing.

[Stotle]

Stotle, thanks for contributing to the board. It seems a couple of unread a couple BA or Keith Law blogs and think we are experts. On top of that we have our orange tinted glasses.

Thanks for providing an opinion without bias. It might not always be correct, but better than posters that only have a "gut feeling".

BTW, can you do piece on the life of a scout. I loved the small post that you did about the one player you almost left without seeing.

Nice of you to say, Randy. Definitely don't think you need to spend tons of time in order to express an opinion, though. All are welcome -- it's the dialogue that's most interesting and most important. I only get frustrated when folks dig in on a position without supporting reason, or discredit another opinion without reason.

I'd like to write a piece like that, but will have to wait until after the draft. I'm setting my travel schedule for the summer so I should have an idea of how much writing I'll have time for within the next two weeks or so.