Dan Klein for Teagarden?

[GoldGlove21]

OK, because if someone gives up a lot of walks and hits in A ball, that surely is going to decline as they progress to the majors and face better hitters. But hey, thanks for the condescension.

I think that WHIP can be a good stat if looking at how well pitchers keep opposing hitters off of the basepaths. If a guy has a low WHIP you would think that he would have a lower ERA as less men making it safely onto base would equate to a lower ERA. It probably says little about stuff or upside, but it could easily be used to identify a potential issue with command.

[Lucky Jim]

Look, I like Klein more than Henry as well.

But the differences between Klein and Henry(if you assume Klein is a reliever only) are not that great.

As I said, I think this is a case where people are going with the name guy, the guy who has recently been drafted and the guy that Tony(and others) have ranked higher....but they are ignoring performance, age, GB vs FB pitcher and the fact that Klein's rankings are largely based on his potential to be a starter.

If they are both relievers, they basically project to the same role. In that same role, Klein is not way ahead of Henry in terms of a prospect IMO. I would agree that he is ahead but the difference between being your #12 prospect and your #18 prospect isn't really much and you can sit there and argue whether the guys in between them, should be between them.

Most of the time, middle relief/set up prospects aren't ranked all that high in their respective organizations, so I don't think where the players are ranked here really matters.

And its not like Klein was a first rounder and Henry was an 8th rounder...They were drafted one round apart.

I said there's a difference, but not a great one. In that sense, we agree. But you use it as a means of over-rating Henry, while I arguably use it as a means of under-rating Klein. Perhaps the truth is somewhere in the middle. There's a decent enough gulf between the two stuff-wise that it makes a difference to me, but not as big a difference as for many on here. I wouldn't have had Klein in our top-10, though.

[Sports Guy]

Maybe, but Jim Johnson is the only guy in our current pen that came through our system. Our ability to develop quality relief pitchers is right up there with our inability to develop starters IMO. Dealing away relief pitching prospect decreases the chances of our future pen being composed of pitchers who came through our system versus free agents or trades. If there is one simple way to save money it has to be tied to relief pitchers and bench players coming from within your own organization.

Right...and people are saying, well I would rather have the cheaper catcher now. Ok, well what about the cheaper reliever later?

We have seen the Orioles time and time again spend a lot of money on the pen, which is a very inefficient use of their money..yet they continue to do it and appear to be set to do it again on a Korean reliever.

Developing guys like Henry, guys that show you what you like to see out of a BP arm, is important for this team and to just trade him for a generic back up catcher(even one with upside) is a poor use of that player.

[DrungoHazewood]

Look, I like Klein more than Henry as well.

But the differences between Klein and Henry(if you assume Klein is a reliever only) are not that great.

As I said, I think this is a case where people are going with the name guy, the guy who has recently been drafted and the guy that Tony(and others) have ranked higher....but they are ignoring performance, age, GB vs FB pitcher and the fact that Klein's rankings are largely based on his potential to be a starter.

If they are both relievers, they basically project to the same role. In that same role, Klein is not way ahead of Henry in terms of a prospect IMO. I would agree that he is ahead but the difference between being your #12 prospect and your #18 prospect isn't really much and you can sit there and argue whether the guys in between them, should be between them.

Most of the time, middle relief/set up prospects aren't ranked all that high in their respective organizations, so I don't think where the players are ranked here really matters.

And its not like Klein was a first rounder and Henry was an 8th rounder...They were drafted one round apart.

I think Kline is a far better prospect. If both are heathy it's not close at all. The most important numbers for a reliever or any starter are Ks and BBs and Kline absolutely has a big advantage there. 20 innings into his pro career he was in AA striking out a batter an inning with great control. SSS, obviously.

[Sports Guy]

I said there's a difference, but not a great one. In that sense, we agree. But you use it as a means of over-rating Henry, while I arguably use it as a means of under-rating Klein. Perhaps the truth is somewhere in the middle. There's a decent enough gulf between the two stuff-wise that it makes a difference to me, but not as big a difference as for many on here. I wouldn't have had Klein in our top-10, though.

I am not overrating Henry.

I have yet to rate him at all. I have made no proclamations of what he will become.

I have just said that he isn't worth trading if the return is a generic back up C.

I have yet to see any kind of an argument that even remotely makes me stop and think, you know, maybe this is a good trade for us.

[Sports Guy]

I think Kline is a far better prospect. If both are heathy it's not close at all. The most important numbers for a reliever or any starter are Ks and BBs and Kline absolutely has a big advantage there. 20 innings into his pro career he was in AA striking out a batter an inning with great control. SSS, obviously.

He has the advantage in K's, not walks.

And I agree that it is important...but Henry having a 2:1 GO/AO ratio and being 2 years younger, negates that some.

And the whole idea of health is pretty important here.

And if he is definitely a better prospect, you could have at least spelled his name right!

[GoldGlove21]

The fact that we've done a terrible job of developing doesn't mean we need to horde. It means we need to draft and develop better. Lots of arms in the last few drafts who could be in our bullpen soon. It's not the historical context that we need to refer to, it's the now-context. Do we have a lot of others like Henry? The answer is, well, kinda. Did we before? Not so much.

I see your point and I am cool on a Henry for TT trade. It is what else whe have to give up that has me concerned a bit.

[Lucky Jim]

I have yet to see any kind of an argument that even remotely makes me stop and think, you know, maybe this is a good trade for us.

How many times have you ever changed your mind about anything? That's an awfully high bar for anyone to surpass.

I've been thinking - not directed to you, SG - and to me the difference between the two is: (i) Henry is finally on the right side of an injury, and his value is up (though at risk of another injury and decline); (ii) Klein is on the wrong side of an injury, and so his value is down (and remains uncertain going forward).

Just because they're crossing the same value-point doesn't necessarily mean they're of equal value from a trade stand-point.

It seems a pretty good example of knowing when to take advantage of an information asymmetry and when to acknowledge uncertainty. For Henry, we should have a good idea of what he's physically capable of, and it appears we're bear-ish on that. For Klein, no one knows what's on the other side, and that suggests we should be agnostic and cautious. We can't take advantage of the information asymmetry if the unknowns apply to all.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think that WHIP can be a good stat if looking at how well pitchers keep opposing hitters off of the basepaths. If a guy has a low WHIP you would think that he would have a lower ERA as less men making it safely onto base would equate to a lower ERA. It probably says little about stuff or upside, but it could easily be used to identify a potential issue with command.

The BB rate would be a greater indicator of command than WHIP. SG summarized the issue with the GB/FB rates and this is how SIERA differs from FIP and ERA/ERA+ in that it essentially breaks down the hit classifications. Groundball guys give up more hits and may typically have a higher WHIP. That's compensated by more DP's and less HR's (potentially even less extra base hits) as the FB/GB ratio should be less. That said, I don't have an issue with WHIP if you understand the significance and how to break down an analyze the other indicators.

[Sports Guy]

How many times have you ever changed your mind about anything? That's an awfully high bar for anyone to surpass.

I have..its not often but I have. 1970 is the one who changes my opinion more than anyone else.

[GoldGlove21]

Right...and people are saying, well I would rather have the cheaper catcher now. Ok, well what about the cheaper reliever later?

We have seen the Orioles time and time again spend a lot of money on the pen, which is a very inefficient use of their money..yet they continue to do it and appear to be set to do it again on a Korean reliever.

Developing guys like Henry, guys that show you what you like to see out of a BP arm, is important for this team and to just trade him for a generic back up catcher(even one with upside) is a poor use of that player.

We have seen the Orioles time and time again spend a lot of money on the pen, which is a very inefficient use of their money..yet they continue to do it and appear to be set to do it again on a Korean reliever.

Developing guys like Henry, guys that show you what you like to see out of a BP arm, is important for this team and to just trade him for a generic back up catcher(even one with upside) is a poor use of that player.

I just do not feel that giving up a decent C level prospect+ with some upside is worth it for a backup catcher with a history of injury. I think that spending good money on relief pitchers to mop up the game after our young starters under-perform is a poor way to spend money. I mean, 27 of the Orioles 40-man roster made less than $450k last season.

Under $450k (Most are between $405k and $415k):

Arrieta

Berken

Bergesen

Britton

Tillman

Hunter

Strop

Viola

Fox

Wieters ($452k)

Adams

Andino

Florimon

Mahoney

Angle

Hudson

Snyder

Bell

Davis

Vandenhurk

Phillips

Rapada

Patton

Simon

Jakubauskas

Eyre

Reimold

That is a grand total of 13 players who made more than $450k in 2011 and the Orioles rolled the dice with Guerrero and Lee for the tune of around $15M. Scott did not play well or at all and most of us thought he was getting too expensive to justify his actual value moving forward ($6.4M in 2011). Gregg got $4.2M last year and will cost even more this season. Brian Roberts made $10M in 2011 and really didn't play much at all. The Orioles got a combined .7 WAR for almost $30M in 2011 investments. Yet we sit here with 20+ pages of content about a TT deal and I find myself wondering how we can not afford better talent when 2/3'rds of our 2011 40-man roster combined for about

$11M of our team payroll. I know that we traded Koji and Lee and that those moves saved funds while adding Hunter and Davis to the 40-man, but I fail to see how we are spending so much money to field a losing product.

I am getting a little upset because I know a little about baseball and while I have never ran an organization I suspect the manner in which I did things would cause the Orioles to lose no more than combined 20 games over the last 5 seasons and I could have done it for about 65% of the cost. The Orioles just make things look really difficult. All of this is funny to me because they even found a way to screw up their two best moves of the offseason. Reynolds was allowed to make error after error at third instead of maximizing his value by mashing as the teams DH and Hardy who was terrific wasn't traded when his value was at its peak.

Now we are looking at investing in a Korean pitcher who will cost us $1.5M per season over the next two years and couple him with Gregg who will be due $5.8M in 2012. We also are on the hook for some of Koji's 2012 salary correct? All of this while moving our most effective relief pitcher into the starting rotation? I just do not get it....

[eb45]

Pitchers in the Orioles' system (full-season) with a higher K/BB than Randy Henry in 2011:

Dan Klein

Jason Gurka

Pitchers in the Orioles' system who were younger and pitched at the same or a higher level than Randy Henry in 2011:

none

As a pure relief prospect, Henry was probably top three in the system, behind Klein and maybe Simon. We're not talking about a Gamboa or Egan or Bascom or Cooney here, this is an actual loss for the system.

LJ makes an excellent point regarding value increasing and decreasing, and I don't think the Klein comparison is particularly valid, but it frustrates me to see people claim their own ignorance invalidates opposing positions. If you'd never heard of Henry before he was traded, maybe you should reconsider whether or not you're qualified to assess his value. hint: you're probably not.

[Lucky Jim]

Pitchers in the Orioles' system (full-season) with a higher K/BB than Randy Henry in 2011:

Dan Klein

Jason Gurka

Pitchers in the Orioles' system who were younger and pitched at the same or a higher level than Randy Henry in 2011:

none

As a pure relief prospect, Henry was probably top three in the system, behind Klein and maybe Simon. We're not talking about a Gamboa or Egan or Bascom or Cooney here, this is an actual loss for the system.

LJ makes an excellent point regarding value increasing and decreasing, and I don't think the Klein comparison is particularly valid, but it frustrates me to see people claim their own ignorance invalidates opposing positions. If you'd never heard of Henry before he was traded, maybe you should reconsider whether or not you're qualified to assess his value. hint: you're probably not.

That's because the pool of "pure relief prospects" who are actually prospects is almost always small, particularly at low levels. Most of the people [at low levels] who will actually be relievers in MLB are probably starting right now [at low levels].*

I would venture to say that the heuristic approach of acknowledging that a sub-AA pure relief prospect isn't a big loss may [only may] be more accurate than what you've done above. Sometimes distance allows us to see things more clearly.

*College guys follow a different trajectory, I would imagine.

[Stotle]

If you'd never heard of Henry before he was traded, maybe you should reconsider whether or not you're qualified to assess his value. hint: you're probably not.

Haha. This made me laugh.

[DrungoHazewood]

That's because the pool of "pure relief prospects" who are actually prospects is almost always small, particularly at low levels. Most of the people [at low levels] who will actually be relievers in MLB are probably starting right now [at low levels].*

I would venture to say that the heuristic approach of acknowledging that a sub-AA pure relief prospect isn't a big loss may [only may] be more accurate than what you've done above. Sometimes distance allows us to see things more clearly.

*College guys follow a different trajectory, I would imagine.

Right. With the exception of fast-tracked college guys like Huston Street or maybe an int'l guy like Armando Benitez, just the fact that you're already a reliever in A ball is a strike against you. If you can't get out 22-year-olds in the Carolina League for five or six innings odds are against you filling any role in the majors. With some exceptions, relievers are starters who didn't have the pitch selection or stamina or ability to get through the lineup multiple times well enough to start.