Fan vs. PECOTA Projections

[PaulFolk]

What target am I moving? I'm not trying to be argumentative, I'm just not sure what you mean.

Look, I think the good Sabre-stuff is way-cool, I'm not dissing it in anyway. I just think you're making claims about Sabre and D that just aren't justified. The current "state of the art" when it comes to giving fans good, meaningful, and trustworthy summary data-points about D just isn't good. It's just not. That's not saying it won't be one day, but it's not there yet. It's just not.

"Sabre"? Well, no wonder you're on a different page with this sabermetrics stuff-- you've been looking at the British version!

[RShack]

"Sabre"? Well, no wonder you're on a different page with this sabermetrics stuff-- you've been looking at the British version!

Well, damn... that explains it! I guess that makes it a horse of a different colour.

I was sticking an "e" on the end, thinking it was Society for American Baseball REsearch.

ps. I think Boom Boom should start a SDBR. The big problem is that nobody could pronounce it ;-)

[Boy Howdy]

Is OPS+ position adjusted? I don't think it is. So while 100 OPS+ is league average, that is not the same thing as league average for a shortstop.

That's true, but if you throw out Jeter, the other names on that list compiled roughly a 78 OPS+ relative to non-position-adjusted league average.

Based on the 2007 AL, that would require Luis Hernandez to put up a .594 OPS to be match the group average. Even his biggest detractors seem to think he'll be near that.

It's just another feather in the cap for those who've made the point that a player of Luis' offensive "capabilities" will not be a lethal hindrance to our burgeoning ballclub's chances to win baseball games.

Just for the hell of it, that's how it relates to the Orioles. Admittedly a team with a multitude of issues.

[Sports Guy]

That's true, but if you throw out Jeter, the other names on that list compiled roughly a 78 OPS+ relative to non-position-adjusted league average.

Based on the 2007 AL, that would require Luis Hernandez to put up a .594 OPS to be match the group average. Even his biggest detractors seem to think he'll be near that.

It's just another feather in the cap for those who've made the point that a player of Luis' offensive "capabilities" will not be a lethal hindrance to our burgeoning ballclub's chances to win baseball games.

Just for the hell of it, that's how it relates to the Orioles. Admittedly a team with a multitude of issues.

Those team could afford someone who couldn't hit because of the rest of the talent on the team.

It is an apples to oranges comparison at this point.

[RShack]

Those team could afford someone who couldn't hit because of the rest of the talent on the team.

It is an apples to oranges comparison at this point.

No it's not. It's apples-to-apples.

Just stop and think for a sec, will ya? The value of a SS is based on his net contribution. So far, the best way we have to measure net contribution is to consider RC and DR. It might not be that simple, but that's the best we know so far. And if you look at it that way, you've basically got 2 choices:

• Either WS Champions are correct when they decide that a sub-par bat is worth it to get good-SS-D.
• Or else all the WS Champs (except the Jeter-y MFY's) have an amazing propensity to be consistently stupid and, for unknown reasons, decide to play SS's who provide them with a black-hole of negative value.

The idea that SS's who are plenty good-enough for WS Champs are somehow not good enough for a crappy team that's rebuilding, and that wants good-D to support it's pitchers, is one of the goofiest things I've ever heard. I know of exactly zero serious rationales where concluding something like that makes any sense at all. Now, maybe you know something that all the WS Champs are too stupid to realize. But if you do, you haven't explained it yet. Instead, you just keep repeating the same silly stuff about how WS Champs somehow can afford to make dumb decisions about their SS's... and furthermore, that they *reliably* make dumb decisions about their SS's.

The only thing that Boom Boom is pointing out is the WC Champs pick SS's on a very different basis than you seem to. So, anyway, will you please just stop and think this through for once?

[Sports Guy]

No it's not. It's apples-to-apples.

Just stop and think for a sec, will ya? The value of a SS is based on his net contribution. So far, the best way we have to measure net contribution is to consider RC and DR. It might not be that simple, but that's the best we know so far. And if you look at it that way, you've basically got 2 choices:

• Either WS Champions are correct when they decide that a sub-par bat is worth it to get good-SS-D.
• Or else all the WS Champs except the MFY's have an amazing propensity to be consistently stupid and play SS's who provide them with a black-hole of negative value.

The idea that SS's who are plenty good-enough for WS Champs are somehow not good enough for a crappy team that's rebuilding, and that wants good-D to support it's pitchers, is one of the goofiest things I've ever heard. I know of exactly zero serious rationales where concluding something like that makes any sense at all. Now, maybe you know something that all the WS Champs are too stupid to realize. But if you do, you haven't explained it yet. Instead, you just keep repeating the same silly stuff about how WS Champs somehow can afford to make dumb decisions about their SS's... and furthermore, that they *reliably* make dumb decisions about their SS's.

The only thing that Boom Boom is pointing out is the WC Champs pick SS's on a very different basis than you seem to. So, anyway, will you please just stop and think this through for once?

When LH proves his defense is enough to make him league average, then I will be fine with him. IMO, that won't happen.

I know you have this blind obsession to make it seem like defense is the most valuable asset on the diamond but the bottom line is when you are as pathetic a hitter as LH is, your defense better be Ozzie Smith like to compensate for it.

I do not even think he deserves the chance to prove it.

[Boy Howdy]

The idea that SS's who are plenty good-enough for WS Champs are somehow not good enough for a crappy team that's rebuilding, and that wants good-D to support it's pitchers, is one of the goofiest things I've ever heard.

Took the words right out of my mouth, or the keystrokes off of my fingers. Something like that.

[RShack]

I know you have this blind obsession to make it seem like defense is the most valuable asset on the diamond ...

Stop being a jerk. I'm saying no such thing and you know it.

If you wanna claim that all the WS Champs are way-stupid, and that you're oh-so-much-smarter than them, then at least back it up. Funny how you never do that. Instead, you completely misrepresent what others are trying to tell you. And you *know* you're misrepresenting it, but you do it anyway. I guess that's what you have to do when you (a) can't admit you're wrong, and (b) have exactly zero arguments to back up what you say. More noise with no substance. At least it gets your post-count up.

[Sports Guy]

Stop being a jerk. I'm saying no such thing and you know it.

If you wanna claim that all the WS Champs are way-stupid, and that you're oh-so-much-smarter than them, then at least back it up. Funny how you never do that. Instead, you completely misrepresent what others are trying to tell you. And you *know* you're misrepresenting it, but you do it anyway. I guess that's what you have to do when you (a) can't admit you're wrong, and (b) have exactly zero arguments to back up what you say. More noise with no substance. At least it gets your post-count up.

Why do you think those WS teams were able to have no hit SS?

I have never once said a good team can't have a no hit SS.

[RShack]

Why do you think those WS teams were able to have no hit SS?

I have never once said a good team can't have a no hit SS.

If you have a case, make the case. You're just repeating the same empty claim with absolutely nothing to back it up. I guess supporting your claim is a proving to be just a little bit harder than inventing fantasy trades, isn't it?

[SrMeowMeow]

When LH proves his defense is enough to make him league average, then I will be fine with him. IMO, that won't happen.

I know you have this blind obsession to make it seem like defense is the most valuable asset on the diamond but the bottom line is when you are as pathetic a hitter as LH is, your defense better be Ozzie Smith like to compensate for it.

I do not even think he deserves the chance to prove it.

The way this reads is that you accept the argument that if LH was a league-average SS, and could put up a .594 OPS, that he would provide average production from the SS spot.

Why does he 'not deserve' the chance to prove it? What do we have to lose? This is what makes no sense!

[Sports Guy]

If you have a case, make the case. You're just repeating the same empty claim with absolutely nothing to back it up. I guess supporting your claim is a proving to be just a little bit harder than inventing fantasy trades, isn't it?

Answer the question....Why have these great WS teams been able to have no hit SS?

And I did support this case a while ago. Showed all the stats as to why they could do it.

So answer me...Why can these teams do this?

[Sports Guy]

The way this reads is that you accept the argument that if LH was a league-average SS, and could put up a .594 OPS, that he would provide average production from the SS spot.

Why does he 'not deserve' the chance to prove it? What do we have to lose? This is what makes no sense!

I am saying he doesn't deserve the chance to show he is the best defensive SS on the planet because that is what he would have to be to make him league average.

We should find better.

[RShack]

Answer the question....Why have these great WS teams been able to have no hit SS?

And I did support this case a while ago. Showed all the stats as to why they could do it.

So answer me...Why can these teams do this?

Sorry, Charlie... talking in circles, and trying to shift the onus by asking questions, is *not* the same thing as making your case. Do you even know how?

[SrMeowMeow]

Why do you think those WS teams were able to have no hit SS?

I have never once said a good team can't have a no hit SS.

Also, you can't say 'good teams can afford a no-hit SS because they make up for the offense elsewhere' with the converse that 'the Orioles can't afford a no-hit SS because they're bad'. You're implying that since the Orioles can't make up the offense there, they have to make offense a priority at shortstop - the hardest position to find legitimate offense. That's just not smart.

Finally, the implication that these teams are 'scraping by' with a no-hit SS because of their other qualities is silly. If a .594 OPS, league average defender SS is average, then he's AVERAGE. Average. If the O's got consistent average production from every player on the 25-man, they'd be a lot better next year. Therefore, giving a cheap, in-house shortstop the chance to prove that he can provide average production in a lost season seems like a total no-brainer.

To be honest, this sounds like the sort of stuff Moneyball rails against - "he's too fat, he can't play", "he's a soft tosser", and now "you can't have a no-hit shortstop if the team can't pick up the slack! you just CAN'T! because that's just how it is in baseball!".

If the stats tell you that you can get average win production out of the shortstop hole by using Luis Hernandez, you USE HIM. If it doesn't, you don't.