Morosi: Orioles and Braves have discussed trade for Jurrjens and Prado

[crawjo]

So maybe I should have said Glavine? As a Braves fan I argued with guys like you over both pitchers in the 90's. Baseball, and especially pitching, cannot be accurately assessed with stats alone. That is all you have regurgitated on this issue, and your short sightedness was never more obvious then with your league ERA comparisons. You are simply guessing that the pitchers effectiveness will regress based on past stats. The same stats that you claim prove that the pitcher was more "lucky" than good in the past. So I read that as your contending that your stats somehow failed to predict accurately in the past but will eventually be correct going forward!

You stick to baseball "science" and I'll continue to watch the actual games and base my opinions on effectiveness and performance!

Again, I have absolutely no idea where this animosity and contempt is coming from. In the 1990s I thought both Glavine and Maddux were great pitchers, Hall of Famers. One could see that by watching them pitch AND by looking at the stats. If you are trying to argue that the best way of judging Jurrjens is by watching him pitch, okay, I've done that. If you are trying to argue that the best way to judge him is by looking at his ERA, well, then you're using stats to make that argument.

Question: Do you believe that any pitcher can be "lucky" with regard to their ERA in any particular season? If yes, why do you believe that is not the case with Jurrjens?

[Capn Vivi]

As someone who has watched most of Jurjjens' starts, and someone who has watched enough baseball to know that such stats as you are using can be very inaccurate when applied to some pitchers, I'll agree to disagree.

I have watched many Braves games where JJ received no run support and lost 1-0 or 2-0 after a brilliant performance, so luck runs both ways, but to use a bunch of after the fact stats to lessen the accomplishments of the man after 4+ years in the majors seems silly to me. Spend the few dollars to buy the MLB online TV package, and go back and watch his starts from early last season. He was almost unhittable most of the time and that takes a lot more then plain luck. Trying to judge a masterful pitcher by numbers is like trying to judge a master painter by the number of brush strokes IMO. Believe me it hasn't been the Braves great defense or over powering offense that has made Jurjjens so successful!

What stats am I using that are inaccurate? I simply pointed to a correlation between Jurrjen's ERA and his LOB%. The more runners he leaves on base, the lower his ERA and vice versa. It is extremely consistent throughout his career and is a major red flag toward predicting future performance. My point is that it's unlikely he'll be able to put up comparable numbers in the AL East considering how difficult the transition will be. I never said he'd be a bad pitcher or that run support has artificially inflated his record. In fact, I never even mentioned his W-L record or his winning percentage.

He's inconsistent. Deal with it. I don't want to trade our #1/2 trade chip for an inconsistent starter who will leave after two years. What problem could you possibly have with that?

Statistics are a terrific method of measuring and quantifying past performance. Predicting future performance is still extremely difficult. The point of my post was only to reinforce the fact that evaluating shallow parts of his past performance (like ERA and W/L record) will not be that helpful in determining his future performance, particularly when he'd be moving to the AL East.

Also, please read my post again, I did mention that despite his low K rate he does have excellent stuff. He's certainly a good pitcher, but don't disparage my opinion only because I support it with facts.

[Roll Tide]

Here's what Braves fans think of the proposed deal.

All due respect to Jim Bowden, I'm not sure any of them besides the Yankees one makes sense. It would need to be the prospect kid Manny B over Nova. Josh Bell is what 26 and counting and hasnt made a dent into his once though potential. As a Braves fan if thats the deal we make, the Braves may need to look at Frank Wren, who has otherwise made solid move after move. I feel the A's will get more for Gio and why would the padres deal Latos???...The Rays move seems to make sense but do they need...more

User ID:http://sportsnation.espn.go.com/fans/kommer13flgators

12 Minutes Ago? Like? Reply? Flag

bayes29Alonso and Grandal. Both are very highly regarded players. ...more

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8 Minutes Ago? Like? Reply? Flag

atwin84If Wren can only get Jones, with his mid .700's OPS, and Bell, a strikeout machine a la Francouer as a Brave for Prado and Jurrjens, he should be fired....more

[My O's Face]

Jurrjens, Prado, O'Flaherty

for

Matusz, Reimold, Andino

[BaltimoreTerp]

So maybe I should have said Glavine? As a Braves fan I argued with guys like you over both pitchers in the 90's. Baseball, and especially pitching, cannot be accurately assessed with stats alone. That is all you have regurgitated on this issue, and your short sightedness was never more obvious then with your league ERA comparisons. You are simply guessing that the pitchers effectiveness will regress based on past stats. The same stats that you claim prove that the pitcher was more "lucky" than good in the past. So I read that as your contending that your stats somehow failed to predict accurately in the past but will eventually be correct going forward!

You stick to baseball "science" and I'll continue to watch the actual games and base my opinions on effectiveness and performance!

So, we'll use logical thinking and you'll use...whatever the hell that is. Tebow probably told you to say that.

[erb8472]

Wow. What a last post.

I saw that avatar and read the message and though SportsGuy was going to Atlanta in the deal.

[erb8472]

I saw that avatar and read the message and though SportsGuy was going to Atlanta in the deal.

That or he was the PTBNL (poster to be named later) in the Teagarden trade.

[Oriolidae85]

I don't know why, but I would guess that Tillman might thrive in an organization like Atlanta's.

Agree, San Diego as well.