Roch: Trade talks with Jones are "intensifying" again?

[GoldGlove21]

I am not so sure that he hasn't already reached his full potential already....And as far as giving him the benefit of the doubt on D Idk how you can do that logically.

We are not talking SSS fluke D numbers, we are talking about three straight full seasons of very poor D numbers...For all we know UZR could be overvaluing his D...Maybe he is a 1.9 WAR instead of a 2.9 WAR...

Calling him a 4th outfielder may be a bit of a stretch but if he played on the Giants or Padres he would lose the only part of his game that is valued SLG %...Looking at his away splits and adding a much worse home field (Safeco/Petco) your looking at a guy with a below .700 ops and horrible D....That is a 4th oufielder and maybe a AAAA guy.

I don't put much stock into defensive numbers. I watch the games and see that one player can field and another can not. The defensive metrics on Jones may say one thing, but my eyes say another. As far as Jones reaching his full potential, I think he has got some wiggle room there. I think he gets better and I think it starts when he stops laying off of low and away breaking stuff and works the count better.

[atomic]

I mean who the heck would want to extend here and be guaranteed no chance at the postseason year after year. We are forced to celebrate less than mediocrity here since we are fans and have our own illogical, emotional ties to this wretched team.

Players extend because they want security. If Jones gets injured like Brian Roberts in the next two years his cash stops coming in. I am sure Berdard wishes he signed an extension with the Orioles.

Plus there is no stress playing for the Orioles. Fans expect nothing from you. Go to Boston, New York or Chicago and they come down on hard on you even when you have a good season.

[Frobby]

I think it would be foolish to not trade Jones....He is completely over valued based on potiental and OPACY....He is product of the best home run environment in baseball.

Your statement about OPACY is way, way off base. The Orioles hit 21 more homers at OPACY than they did on the road. That puts them only 4th in the AL in terms of offensive home/road HR differential, behind Texas (+42), Cleveland (+24) and New York (+22). The Orioles pitchers allowed only 6 more homers at home than on the road. That puts them behind Texas (+34), New York (+22), Chicago (+13), Toronto (+11) and Seattle (+9).

How is that "the best home run environment in baseball?" It is a bit above average.

[Lucky Jim]

I think it would be foolish to not trade Jones....He is completely over valued based on potiental and OPACY....He is product of the best home run environment in baseball.

All of his value lies in his ability to hit HRs and what he 'might become'...Id rather take my chances on a younger guy in CF who can help instead of hinder our young pitching and who isn't a year away from being a very expensive, bad obp, slugging LFer.

Take away OPACY and he is a below league average CFer at this point and more of a 4th outfielder than anything....A right handed Corey Patterson without the D and steals.

And thats a fact....DD trade him now please get the value while you can before he regresses and then we lose all that value from his 'potiental' or gets injured.

Your statement about OPACY is way, way off base. The Orioles hit 21 more homers at OPACY than they did on the road. That puts them only 4th in the AL in terms of offensive home/road HR differential, behind Texas (+42), Cleveland (+24) and New York (+22). The Orioles pitchers allowed only 6 more homers at home than on the road. That puts them behind Texas (+34), New York (+22), Chicago (+13), Toronto (+11) and Seattle (+9).

How is that "the best home run environment in baseball?" It is a bit above average.

It's generally 5th-8th HR-park factor-wise.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor

But this is pretty typical of his use of statistics. Where convenient, cite. Where inconvenient, ignore. Where non-existent, make them up.

[RavNMadMan]

Cespedes is not going to happen. I think the Marlins are going to make a very strong push for him and the Cuban connection in Miami will be way too persuasive to be ignored.

It is my non-professional opinion that you are 100% correct sir.

[Sports Guy]

It is my non-professional opinion that you are 100% correct sir.

And they need a CFer, so it adds up.

[TiredofLosing20]

It's generally 5th-8th HR-park factor-wise.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor

But this is pretty typical of his use of statistics. Where convenient, cite. Where inconvenient, ignore. Where non-existent, make them up.

In fairness to Mike Gallo, I think he is a victim of drawing poor conclusions based on not fully exploring the data versus some Treaian attempt to distort facts to meet his agenda. But that is just my view based on his posts. I leave open the idea that I am wrong!

[RavNMadMan]

Assumption A: Jones gets moved for a really good (or at least decent haul) including JJ and Prado and some good prospects.

Assumption B: O's do not get Cespedes

Since both of these assumptions may come true (in my line of thinking) then are we looking at the beginning of the Chavez CF era in Baltimore or do the Orioles try to get someone else? Who might that be?

[mikegallo]

It's generally 5th-8th HR-park factor-wise.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor

But this is pretty typical of his use of statistics. Where convenient, cite. Where inconvenient, ignore. Where non-existent, make them up.

Really make them up....thats a joke why don't you check out these park factors from 2011 http://statcorner.com/team.php?team=BAL&year=2011&leag=A_L

Those are much more reliable then ESPN park factors which are a joke..OPACY plays as one of the best HR parks in baseball...in 2011.

AJ's home road splits suggest his numbers are greatly helped by OPACY and his HR or bust approach. To say OPACY hasn't greatly helped his stats is just not looking at the facts.

Pretty typical of Lucky Jims approach..Don't like a posters conclusion slander them..When he does agree with the conclusion but dislikes the poster nitpick.

[TiredofLosing20]

Really make them up....thats a joke why don't you check out these park factors from 2011 http://statcorner.com/team.php?team=BAL&year=2011&leag=A_L

Those are much more reliable then ESPN park factors which are a joke..OPACY plays as one of the best HR parks in baseball...in 2011.

AJ's home road splits suggest his numbers are greatly helped by OPACY and his HR or bust approach. To say OPACY hasn't greatly helped his stats is just not looking at the facts.

Pretty typical of Lucky Jims approach..Don't like a posters conclusion slander them..When he does agree with the conclusion but dislikes the poster nitpick.

Why did Jones hit more HRs away in 2010 and only 3 less away in 2009 despite 30 some less PA?

[mikegallo]

It is way above average top 3ish in HR help and AJs stats are so overwhelmingly helped by our park given his skillset that Braves fans have every right to believe that AJ would produce well below average in LF and in turn not want to give up any prospects for him.

[mikegallo]

Id say using career numbers given SS is much better at showing a players enviormental stat boost than a single year or 81 games...Whenever any gives evidence showing a beloved Oriole player to be overrated in any way he gets slamed....Unless the board mainstays say it's an ok conclusion of course.

[Roll Tide]

It is way above average top 3ish in HR help and AJs stats are so overwhelmingly helped by our park given his skillset that Braves fans have every right to believe that AJ would produce well below average in LF and in turn not want to give up any prospects for him.

:rofl:

Dude ... Where do you get this stuff? Seriously are you making it up?or Are you really a Braves fan trolling?

Jurrjens is a injury liability .... Prado is a 3rd/4th piece of a return. The Orioles are trading Jones at his potential upside. Surely you read the fangraphs thing.

Atlanta is still talking ...So in essence they must think that they can get a deal done or they would have quit talking. If they think Jones would do a 4/40 or 5/50 extension that would add to his value.

[weams]

Trea.... I get your agenda and I do respect you as a poster. But I think we'd all agree it goes without saying that the Orioles need to get a whole lot for Jones. If they can send him and Andino for Jurrjens, Prado, Salcedo, and one of Delgado/Minor/ Viscaino they would be doing well. And Jurrjens can be used to get 3 more young guys at the deadline. Typically the returned prospects with be better if a solid MLB'er is moved at the trade deadline as teams usually dont deal from their active roster. It would be ok to include the return from Jurrjens later as part of the return for Jones.

Jones wont answer any questions about resigning ....That IMO says it all about his desire to stay here...If he truly did it wouldnt hurt to say "I'd Love to stay here or We will consider all offers " or something positive.

Jeremy Guthrie stated last offseason that his agent had approached the Orioles regarding a three year deal. That deal would have included the two arbritation years and one FA season. Jeremy told us that the Orioles said that they would prefer to go year to year. It is not always the club that approached for an extension. I would ask Adam if his guy has ever asked the Orioles to extend him.

[Lucky Jim]

Really make them up....thats a joke why don't you check out these park factors from 2011 http://statcorner.com/team.php?team=BAL&year=2011&leag=A_L

Those are much more reliable then ESPN park factors which are a joke..OPACY plays as one of the best HR parks in baseball...in 2011.

AJ's home road splits suggest his numbers are greatly helped by OPACY and his HR or bust approach. To say OPACY hasn't greatly helped his stats is just not looking at the facts.

Pretty typical of Lucky Jims approach..Don't like a posters conclusion slander them..When he does agree with the conclusion but dislikes the poster nitpick.

Right...

I said that it was a top 5-to-8 park for HRs. It's clearly not "the best" - a claim you've already apparently backed off of.

All I see on that site are numbers w/o methodology. I have no idea how they calculated it. That said, BP also ranks OPACY in the 5-8 range.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8934

Do you think that - since 2008 - OPACY has been better than 5-8 in HR factor?