Guthrie traded to Rockies for Hammel & Lindstrom

[oriolesacox]

He also states that Matusz, Britton, and Arrieta may start the season in Norfolk.

I'm really hoping that's a "get your ass in gear" type comment. How can you rule them out before Spring Training even starts? Sounds silly to me.

[beardbr]

I've been thinking about the trade and DD's action in general and I think they are pretty genius.

First, all players are resources. Nothing more or nothing less. The most valuable resource in baseball, or one of the most desirable on most teams is pitching.

If the Orioles can build up an inventory of pitchers, and make sure that those resources have value to other teams, you can use those resources to acquire other resources that are needed. Implement a uniform training program with one of the best pitching minds in baseball. Basically become a pitcher factory.

With the Guthrie trade, you added two resources for one.

[Sports Guy]

There is risk on both sides of this...Lindstrom has been Gregg in his career in most seasons and Hammel has been very good in 2 seasons and awful the rest of the time.

Neither is young, neither is cheap, neither is likely a long term piece and Hammel is coming off of an awful year.

All the Orioles did here was make 1 player, 2 players while trying to spread the risk out.

[weams]

I'm really hoping that's a "get your ass in gear" type comment. How can you rule them out before Spring Training even starts? Sounds silly to me.

Sounds like the options they possess are part of their current value to our current GM. Sounds like he might want more than spring training to evaluate what he has.

[weams]

There is risk on both sides of this...Lindstrom has been Gregg in his career in most seasons and Hammel has been very good in 2 seasons and awful the rest of the time.

Neither is young, neither is cheap, neither is likely a long term piece and Hammel is coming off of an awful year.

All the Orioles did here was make 1 player, 2 players while trying to spread the risk out.

And acquired the ability to trade these less expensive people for the return that you wanted from Guthrie is all goes well.

[Miller192]

My initial reaction to the trade was pretty skeptical as I am with all things Orioles.

In thinking about it, I can understand why it was made. I don't think it's a trade I would make but I can understand the thinking behind it and I'm ok with it.

Duquette has done very little to improve the ML roster. Whether he's taking a wait and see approach or he thinks this team is better than its recent history, time will tell. That's what bugs me about the trade. We trade an important part of our rotation for a couple of guys that look to be a wash on the surface in an offseason where we likely haven't improved much.

But, in a vacuum, the trade does make some sense.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think it's a pretty fair argument. Guthrie is likely a 2-3 win pitcher for 2012. He'll be paid like a 2-win pitcher. He's gone, or you have to pony up a market-rate deal, at the end of the year. There's little opportunity for any surplus value there. At least Hammel has the chance to give us two years of 4-win performance (like he did in '09-10) for a 1-win salary. Lindstrom is probably overpaid, but he could be non-tendered if he doesn't perform.

It doesn't take a lollipopper to think this is somewhere between a push and a small gain for the O's. Which is the assessment I've seen from several outside (obviously non-Keith Law) sources like BP.

[Sports Guy]

And acquired the ability to trade these less expensive people for the return that you wanted from Guthrie is all goes well.

Yes...assuming Lindstrom can pitch unlike his normal Kevin Gregg self and that Hammel isn't as bad as last year.

The question is pretty simple...Do you feel that these guys are more likely to bring more value at the deadline than Guthrie would have?

Personally, I say no but it wouldn't surprise me if the opposite happened.

[Fan4Life]

Has there been any reports on Buck commenting on the trade?

[DrungoHazewood]

I hate to admit it, but recent history would seem to support Melewski's point. Guthrie was a much better pitcher in the first halves of 2007 and 2008 than he was in those seasons' second halves. However, in 2009 and 2010 he was far worse during each of those seasons' first halves. Last year, he was only marginally better during the first half than he was during the second half. If Guthrie's trends continued as they had over the last few years, it seems likely that his value wouldn't have been "peak" when the trade deadline rolled around.

Also, you have to keep in mind the new CBA. If you trade Guthrie at the deadline you're really only trading for two months of Guthrie. That's a few $million in value. There is no draft pick compensation anymore for people traded mid-season. If you go to opening day with Guthrie on the roster his value just went down by the value of a supplemental pick.

[Sports Guy]

My initial reaction to the trade was pretty skeptical as I am with all things Orioles.

In thinking about it, I can understand why it was made. I don't think it's a trade I would make but I can understand the thinking behind it and I'm ok with it.

Duquette has done very little to improve the ML roster. Whether he's taking a wait and see approach or he thinks this team is better than its recent history, time will tell. That's what bugs me about the trade. We trade an important part of our rotation for a couple of guys that look to be a wash on the surface in an offseason where we likely haven't improved much.

But, in a vacuum, the trade does make some sense.

Yea...I agree with this.

It really boils down to which risk would you prefer...This package or Guthrie.

I think Guthrie is a little more likely to be the better risk but we are talking like a 52/48 type split. Its close. I just prefer to get with more of the known than the unknown.

[Can_of_corn]

Sounds like the options they possess are part of their current value to our current GM. Sounds like he might want more than spring training to evaluate what he has.

Which means that finishing at or above .500 is clearly not a goal.

[weams]

Also, you have to keep in mind the new CBA. If you trade Guthrie at the deadline you're really only trading for two months of Guthrie. That's a few $million in value. There is no draft pick compensation anymore for people traded mid-season. If you go to opening day with Guthrie on the roster his value just went down by the value of a supplemental pick.

And four million in actual player cost. Sounds like you would have to eat some salary to even unload him at that time. No matter how well he had pitched.

[Sports Guy]

Also, you have to keep in mind the new CBA. If you trade Guthrie at the deadline you're really only trading for two months of Guthrie. That's a few $million in value. There is no draft pick compensation anymore for people traded mid-season. If you go to opening day with Guthrie on the roster his value just went down by the value of a supplemental pick.

But a team who views Guthrie as a final piece to help them get in the playoffs cares a little less about this.

Its not that its not important but the goal is the playoffs, not a draft pick.

[mcgraw238]

Did JG shave his legs in that picture?