Dan Duquette: No teams were willing to offer us young prospects in return for Guthrie

[Sports Guy]

Well i am able to read a stat sheet. I don't believe FIP is a very good stat for evaluating performance. You can believe all you want. But if two guys are on the same team both pitch 200 innings and one guy has batters hitting .350 against them another has batters hitting .220 off of him there FIP's could be exactly the same and I would choose the guy who keeps batter to .220 batting average. You would say they were the same. Well I wonder how that would work out for you as a GM.

I am sure there is some corelation between FIP and actual stats that judge performance. As throwing strikes and not giving up home runs is a good thing. There is certainly not a direct corelation. And it is certainly nothing I would use to judge whether a pitcher had a good year.

He walked less, K'ed more and gave up less homers in 2009 and 2010 compared to 2011...It wasn't close. He threw more strikes...One season he missed more bats.

That was actual stuff...not theoretic ERAs, predictive stats, etc...

Saying he was the same in 2011 as those other years is an ignorant and incredibly wrong statement.

[Lucky Jim]

Well i am able to read a stat sheet. I don't believe FIP is a very good stat for evaluating performance. You can believe all you want. But if two guys are on the same team both pitch 200 innings and one guy has batters hitting .350 against them another has batters hitting .220 off of him there FIP's could be exactly the same and I would choose the guy who keeps batter to .220 batting average. You would say they were the same. Well I wonder how that would work out for you as a GM.

I am sure there is some corelation between FIP and actual stats that judge performance. As throwing strikes and not giving up home runs is a good thing. There is certainly not a direct corelation. And it is certainly nothing I would use to judge whether a pitcher had a good year.

We walked less, K'ed more and gave up less homers in 2009 and 2010 compared to 2011...It wasn't close.

That was actual stuff...not theoretic ERAs, predictive stats, etc...

Saying he was the same in 2011 as those other years is an ignorant and incredibly wrong statement.

In other words, you'd chose Kevin Millwood (.235 BABIP / 2.68 ERA / 3.53 FIP) over Greg Maddux (.325 BABIP / 3.57 ERA / 3.40 FIP) in 1999 (and going forward)?

Good call, Mr. GM.

Just to frame the argument.

[atomic]

In other words, you'd chose Kevin Millwood (.235 BABIP / 2.68 ERA / 3.53 FIP) over Greg Maddux (.325 BABIP / 3.57 ERA / 3.40 FIP) in 1999 (and going forward)?

Good call, Mr. GM.

You pick one guys career year and when another guy had an off year for comparison? Millwood had a better year than Maddux that year. How does that say anything about their overall careers?

[atomic]

He walked less, K'ed more and gave up less homers in 2009 and 2010 compared to 2011...It wasn't close. He threw more strikes...One season he missed more bats.

That was actual stuff...not theoretic ERAs, predictive stats, etc...

Saying he was the same in 2011 as those other years is an ignorant and incredibly wrong statement.

That is your opinion. He gave up a hit less every nine innings in 2011 over 2010. So that is not theoretic either. You believe stats that you want to believe and when others question your stats you get upset. Even when proven that his performance was the same. Runs given up is what matters for a starter based on fielding and the park and the level of competition. Your stats given don't provide for any of that.

[Sports Guy]

That is your opinion. He gave up a hit less every nine innings in 2011 over 2010. So that is not theoretic either. You believe stats that you want to believe and when others question your stats you get upset. Even when proven that his performance was the same. Runs given up is what matters for a starter based on fielding and the park and the level of competition. Your stats given don't provide for any of that.

No, i am talking about the stats that a pitcher controls.

Bringing up hits given up means very little because there is no context of what his defense was like behind. If his BABIP was as low in 2009 and 2010 as it was in 2011, he would have had an ERA MUCH better than he did.

But in 2011, his K's dropped significantly and his walks really jumped up. Those are 2 huge stats.

[Lucky Jim]

The bottom line on Hammel is pretty simple...If he can pitch like he did in 2009 and 2010 and put up the solid K, BB and HR rates, have an above average str% and miss bats at a good rate, he should be successful in this division.

If he pitches like he did last year, he will get lit up like a christmas tree.

This is the relevant context. Should = predictive.

He pitched the same all 3 years. Why is that so hard to grasp.

His ERA may have been similar. Having the same results, as measured by one metric, is not the same as "pitching the same."

Because he didn't and saying he did is really awful and shows an inability of being able to read a stat sheet.

He walked less, K'ed more and gave up less homers in 2009 and 2010 compared to 2011...It wasn't close. He threw more strikes...One season he missed more bats.

That was actual stuff...not theoretic ERAs, predictive stats, etc...

Saying he was the same in 2011 as those other years is an ignorant and incredibly wrong statement.

Well i am able to read a stat sheet. I don't believe FIP is a very good stat for evaluating performance. You can believe all you want. But if two guys are on the same team both pitch 200 innings and one guy has batters hitting .350 against them another has batters hitting .220 off of him there FIP's could be exactly the same and I would choose the guy who keeps batter to .220 batting average. You would say they were the same. Well I wonder how that would work out for you as a GM.

I am sure there is some corelation between FIP and actual stats that judge performance. As throwing strikes and not giving up home runs is a good thing. There is certainly not a direct corelation. And it is certainly nothing I would use to judge whether a pitcher had a good year.

A GM - which you bring up here - is interested in future value. I.e., evaluates in a predictive context. He is not voting for Cy Young (where, I would argue, ERA may matter more).

In other words, you'd chose Kevin Millwood (.235 BABIP / 2.68 ERA / 3.53 FIP) over Greg Maddux (.325 BABIP / 3.57 ERA / 3.40 FIP) in 1999 (and going forward)?

Good call, Mr. GM.

You pick one guys career year and when another guy had an off year for comparison? Millwood had a better year than Maddux that year. How does that say anything about their overall careers?

I pick one year to show you why taking into account the things beyond ERA is important. This highlights the disparity between metrics.

[CA-ORIOLE]

He pitched the same all 3 years. Why is that so hard to grasp.

He did not pitch the same all three years in accordance with FIP. 2011 was substantially worse by FIP. You can't just substitute hits for walks and say it was the same....it's not. Look I'm ok with your ant-DIPS take. I'm not the biggest DIPS fan myself and there is a lot to be said for Brefs approach on this, but lets not distort the argument.

[atomic]

I pick one year to show you why taking into account the things beyond ERA is important. This highlights the disparity between metrics.

You also provided BABIP not batting average on which my original point was made. Millwood was 24. He did not have a track record. Even so if we traded for someone now with similar stats as Millwood has in 1999 I am sure you guys would be tickled pink.

[Lucky Jim]

You also provided BABIP not batting average on which my original point was made. Millwood was 24. He did not have a track record. Even so if we traded for someone now with similar stats as Millwood has in 1999 I am sure you guys would be tickled pink.

I'm not sure how that would work with a .350 BAA. It doesn't make sense.

That said, the disparity in BAA between Millwood and Maddux in 1999 was .202 v. .295.

[Barnaby Graves]

But in 2011, his K's dropped significantly and his walks really jumped up. Those are 2 huge stats.

I really don't like that trend but if he rebounds, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 are pretty good. His HR rate was consistently high for Tampa and dropped when he went to Colorado. One thing I found interesting was that his walk and K rates improved when Colorado used him mostly as a starter versus 2008 when Tampa used him as a reliever.

That being said, I totally despised the trade, I'm just making conversation. He's only 29, which I like, but on the whole I find his numbers and his stuff to be mediocre and underwhelming, even though he throws pretty hard. Reminds me of Chris Ray in that regard although I don't know enough about Hammel to know how deep that comp would go.

Should've gotten Pomeranz