Pessimism

[sangar]

Since the majority of posters here have a negative attitude before the season has started, contrarian theory would suggest it's time to buy.

[luismatos4prez]

You don't like hearing the truth. "All the national media are against the Orioles. They hate us. "

They don't hate the Orioles. They are just being realistic. Like I am being. Bad team getting worse. Markakis is injured. I believe Reynolds and Hardy will be worse this year. No replacement for Vlad. Guthrie gone and a bunch of question marks in our starting rotation. I mean would it suprise you if our best starting pitcher this year had an ERA over 5?

Is our depth really better? Last year when Luke went down we had Reimhold to replace him. Andino replaced Robersts. Do you think we have that quality this year? Who is going to play right if Nick cant play? Who is playing second, who is playing third, who is the DH?

Anyway take your thoughts to the optomism thread.

1. The notion that the team is worse than it was last year is completely incorrect. Do a position by position breakdown and see what you come up with. It's not even close to the truth. I suspect Hardy won't be as great as he was last year as well. I disagree with you about Reynolds, but it's whatever.

2. Betemit is replacing Guerrero. Betemit put up 1 and 1.1 WAR seasons in 2010 and 2011 respectively. Guerrero put up a 0 WAR season last year, hitting 4th. Betemit won't be hitting 4th, and he has a great track record at getting on base against righties.

3. If Andino and Markakis went down, Antonelli and Endy Chavez would come into the starting lineup. Antonelli is unproven, but so was Andino last year and I like Antonelli's potential. Chavez won't provide much spark with the bat, but he's a proven excellent OF and has a 20.2 UZR/150 at RF over his career. Jai Miller would be the 4th OF. You can go on and on. If Wieters goes down, Teagarden fills in and Paulino comes up. If Davis goes down, Johnson comes up, or maybe Reynolds places 1B and Antonelli plays 3rd. Blah blah blah. So yes, the depth is absolutely and unquestionably improved. Last year, if Markakis went down, Felix the goofball would have come in.

4. As for the SP, if our best SP has a 5+ ERA, I will be beyond stunned. Of the pitchers on the Orioles who threw 50+ innings last year, Arrieta had the highest ERA at 5.05, and the only one over 5. No reason he shouldn't be better being healthy this year. By all accounts the 2007 Nationals were one of the worst pitching staffs in the history of baseball and they had 4 pitchers start 15+ games with a sub 5 ERA.

I get it. You're frustrated with the losing. I am too. But you sound ridiculous and childish when you make exaggerated statements like the ones you've been making.

[atomic]

4. As for the SP, if our best SP has a 5+ ERA, I will be beyond stunned. Of the pitchers on the Orioles who threw 50+ innings last year, Arrieta had the highest ERA at 5.05, and the only one over 5. No reason he shouldn't be better being healthy this year. By all accounts the 2007 Nationals were one of the worst pitching staffs in the history of baseball and they had 4 pitchers start 15+ games with a sub 5 ERA.

I get it. You're frustrated with the losing. I am too. But you sound ridiculous and childish when you make exaggerated statements like the ones you've been making.

Tillman 5.52

Simon 4.90

Matusz 10.69

Arrieta 5.05

Britton 4.61

Eveland career era: 5.51

Hammel career 4.99

You don't see how all these guys could be over 5 era next year? Which ones would shock you?

[luismatos4prez]

I take it you're going to ignore the rest of the stuff I said.

I completely forgot about Tillman and Bergesen. That's my bad. I get my stats off a list I made on Fangraphs and I only included guys who have a shot at making the OD rotation. Matusz didn't hit 50 innings last year because he didn't show up when I filtered that.

I'll be shocked if Simon, Tillman, Matusz, or Eveland are regular starters.

I'll be shocked if Arrieta and Britton don't at least improve a little bit.

I'll be shocked if Chen is a complete and utter bust.

I"ll be shocked if Jason Hammel suffers a serious regression from the 4.64 ERA he's put up over the last 4 seasons in Tampa Bay and Colorado.

I'll be shocked if Tommy Hunter suffers a serious regression from the 4.58 ERA he's put up over his 55 career starts.

Which wouldn't shock you?