The pieces are in place for a winning team

[El Gordo]

200 home runs out of that group just isn't adding up for me. If all the stars align, it's a leap year (it is!) and El Nino comes around, maybe there's a shot ...

Reynolds 40 HR

Jones 20+

Reimold 20+

Hardy 20+

Wieters 20+

Davis 20+

Markakis 15

DH(Betemit/? platoon)15

2B 10+

That's 180+

[DrungoHazewood]

When someone has had their last two years like Betemit has had, I think that is a better indicator then a career average which reflects what happen 4 or 5 or 6 years ago. What does what happened 5 years ago have to do with projecting what will happen this coming season?

It's really only 2010 that's being called into question. He played about half a season, had a couple of white hot streaks (1.400+ OPS in 30 June ABs), and that drove his season OPS to nearly .900. In 2011 he OPS'd .795, again in a partial season's worth of ABs. You're putting a lot of faith in one really good half-season, and one slightly better than career average half season.

He's 30, he has a career OPS+ of 105. Expect a bit of regression, I'd assume he's basically an average hitter, so I'd peg him around .730.

[El Gordo]

It's really only 2010 that's being called into question. He played about half a season, had a couple of white hot streaks (1.400+ OPS in 30 June ABs), and that drove his season OPS to nearly .900. In 2011 he OPS'd .795, again in a partial season's worth of ABs. You're putting a lot of faith in one really good half-season, and one slightly better than career average half season.

He's 30, he has a career OPS+ of 105. Expect a bit of regression, I'd assume he's basically an average hitter, so I'd peg him around .730.

You seem to be assuming he is pretty much the full time DH. I think he will chiefly face RH pitchers, and his career splits would indicate he'll be a lot better than .730 OPS.

[Frobby]

When someone has had their last two years like Betemit has had, I think that is a better indicator then a career average which reflects what happen 4 or 5 or 6 years ago. What does what happened 5 years ago have to do with projecting what will happen this coming season?

I will respectfully submit that the better projection systems are looking very systematically at how relevant is last year's performance, or the year before that, compared to the earlier years and the whole body of work, and that all of that is taken into account in their projections. And as I've said, counting on Betemit for a .391 BABIP is just foolish. A guy who strikes out 105 times in 359 PA is not going to hit .292 very often. My bet is you will see a significant drop in his BA and OBP in 2012. Believe me, I'd be thrilled to be wrong about that, and I hope I am.

[DrungoHazewood]

You seem to be assuming he is pretty much the full time DH. I think he will chiefly face RH pitchers, and his career splits would indicate he'll be a lot better than .730 OPS.

No I'm not. In his career he's gotten about 75% of his PAs against righties, when about 66% of pitchers are right-handers. His career numbers already include that advantage he's gotten from some platooning.

I am skeptical that he'll be strictly limited to facing right-handers. I'd be surprised if he didn't get 75 or 100 PAs against lefties.

[El Gordo]

No I'm not. In his career he's gotten about 75% of his PAs against righties, when about 66% of pitchers are right-handers. His career numbers already include that advantage he's gotten from some platooning.

I am skeptical that he'll be strictly limited to facing right-handers. I'd be surprised if he didn't get 75 or 100 PAs against lefties.

I think you're wrong here. Last year he had 96 PA aginst LH pitching as a 3B, primarily. He won't get nearly as much time in the field this year, and will get few PA against LH pitching. That's not how they intend to use him. If Davis struggles they are more likely to play Johnson at 1B.

[Frobby]

No I'm not. In his career he's gotten about 75% of his PAs against righties, when about 66% of pitchers are right-handers. His career numbers already include that advantage he's gotten from some platooning.

I am skeptical that he'll be strictly limited to facing right-handers. I'd be surprised if he didn't get 75 or 100 PAs against lefties.

71.5% of all at bats in the AL last year were vs. RHP. You could probably get Betemit over 80% without much difficulty. When Buck had Dave Dellucci in Texas, he faced RHP 91.5% of the time in 2004 and 92.6% of the time in 2005. So, Buck definitely knows how to play the platoon game. The question is, who plays vs. LHP?

[El Gordo]

71.5% of all at bats in the AL last year were vs. RHP. You could probably get Betemit over 80% without much difficulty. When Buck had Dave Dellucci in Texas, he faced RHP 91.5% of the time in 2004 and 92.6% of the time in 2005. So, Buck definitely knows how to play the platoon game. The question is, who plays vs. LHP?

Right now it looks like Miller, if he makes the team, or Reynolds, with Antonelli at 3B. That's why I wished they had picked up someone like Maggs, but if Miller looks bad, there are still options out there.

[Frobby]

Right now it looks like Miller, if he makes the team, or Reynolds, with Antonelli at 3B. That's why I wished they had picked up someone like Maggs, but if Miller looks bad, there are still options out there.

Well, whoever it is has to be someone who can hit better against LHP than Betemit. Otherwise, a platoon is pointless. I'm not optimistic that either Antonelli or Miller can do it, but I don't mind giving one of them the opportunity.

[El Gordo]

Well, whoever it is has to be someone who can hit better against LHP than Betemit. Otherwise, a platoon is pointless. I'm not optimistic that either Antonelli or Miller can do it, but I don't mind giving one of them the opportunity.

Last year Betemit hit .607 OPS against LH pitching. You have a low opinion of Antonelli's and Miller's bats, IMO.

[Frobby]

Last year Betemit hit .607 OPS against LH pitching. You have a low opinion of Antonelli's and Miller's bats, IMO.

In his career, Betemit has a .684 OPS vs. LHP. That is about what I'd expect from him from that side. I don't really have an independent opinion of Antonelli or Miller's bats. You've got ZiPS, Clay Davenport and PECOTA all pegging Antonelli below .700. I have no idea how well he hits LHP, though in his one big league stint, he was better vs. RHP than LHP, and in 2011 in the minors, he was the same vs. LHP as RHP. PECOTA projects Miller at .734. Miller in the big leagues has hit better vs. LHP than RHP, but in 2011 in the minors, was slightly better vs. RHP. All in all, neither looks like a good bet to put up an .800 OPS vs. LHP, which is really what you want in a platoon, and it's even money whether either can top the .684 I'd expect from Betemit.

[El Gordo]

In his career, Betemit has a .684 OPS vs. LHP. That is about what I'd expect from him from that side. I don't really have an independent opinion of Antonelli or Miller's bats. You've got ZiPS, Clay Davenport and PECOTA all pegging Antonelli below .700. I have no idea how well he hits LHP, though in his one big league stint, he was better vs. RHP than LHP, and in 2011 in the minors, he was the same vs. LHP as RHP. PECOTA projects Miller at .734. Miller in the big leagues has hit better vs. LHP than RHP, but in 2011 in the minors, was slightly better vs. RHP. All in all, neither looks like a good bet to put up an .800 OPS vs. LHP, which is really what you want in a platoon, and it's even money whether either can top the .684 I'd expect from Betemit.

I'm not expecting them to put up an .800 OPS against LH pitching, just hoping they can do better than Vald's .734. Miller is a good defender so there is the option of using Reimold as the RH DH and upgrading the D in LF. BTW, just how accurate were ZIPS, PECOTA etc, last season? IIRC , PECOTA has been off quite a bit lately.

[Frobby]

I'm not expecting them to put up an .800 OPS against LH pitching, just hoping they can do better than Vald's .734. Miller is a good defender so there is the option of using Reimold as the RH DH and upgrading the D in LF. BTW, just how accurate were ZIPS, PECOTA etc, last season? IIRC , PECOTA has been off quite a bit lately.

Unfortunately, PECOTA's Orioles projection has been higher than actual the last three seasons in a row. Part of that is due to overall dropping offensive numbers around the league, but even adjusting for that, the O's have underperformed PECOTA the last three seasons.

[Hang10]

Best time of the year to be an O's fan...It all starts to go downhill in about 6 weeks.

Actually the last couple of years the best time to be an O's fan has been the last third of the season or so, when they were winning and beating contending teams. That is a nice departure from the recent past.

[WV O's]

Studies have shown that a baserunner reaching on an error normally leads to 0.49 extra runs, compared to 0.47 for a single. For purposes of what Drungo was saying, they are essentially the same. A pitcher can just as easily labor after a two-out single as he can after a two-out error.

I will not let statistics get in the way of my gut being right!