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Matt Garza, Savior?


brianod

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There's no one - no one - on our squad currently that can even come close to matching those ERA figures over that period of time. Or even a lesser period of time. I'll take it at this point.

The record/stats kind of remind me of Guthrie during his stay here...Solid ERA w/ crappy Win/Loss ...Hard to blame/gauge Win /Loss without seeing if he coughs the leads up after getting runs. If the guy is thrust into the #1 hole with us and faces other one the trend would certainly continue ....particularly with the way this team is scoring runs.

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They're not the same kind of pitcher but Guts and Garza match up, excluding this year, over the last 5 almost identical in terms of ERA+ and innings pitched. Almost identically.

Exactly, so then he's really not worth all they're asking.

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For all the snarky comments about Ws, as technically correct as they may be, the OP has a valid point. Garza isn't a great pitcher by any stretch of the imagination. He's Jeremy Guthrie. Is a season and a half of Jeremy Guthrie worth giving up a top prospect? Not in my opinion.

ha ha......Guthrie????? I'm not sure you could have possibly made a worse comparison.

Ps cliff lee hasn't won a single game all season long. I suppose he must just be terrible and no Orioles fan should have any interest in getting the guy at all, right?

What a poor, poor analysis. I'd take garza in a heartbeat as long as we didn't have to give up bundy or machado. Anyone else would be fair game for a solid number 2 like Garza.

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ha ha......Guthrie????? I'm not sure you could have possibly made a worse comparison.

Ps cliff lee hasn't won a single game all season long. I suppose he must just be terrible and no Orioles fan should have any interest in getting the guy at all' date=' right?

What a poor, poor analysis. I'd take garza in a heartbeat as long as we didn't have to give up bundy or machado. Anyone else would be fair game for a solid number 2 like Garza.[/quote']

I'll spell out my "poor, poor analysis" because obviously you have an extremely limited amount of intelligence and I need to be as clear as possible so you can wrap your miniscule mind around it:

From the years 07-11 Guts averaged 196 IP and an ERA+ of 106. Garza from 08-11 averaged 196 innings pitched and an ERA+ of 108.

Yeah, what a terrible comparison!!!

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I was more referring to the fact that they are completely different types of pitchers. There are a TON of different pitchers will similiar ERA+ that have very little in common. You managed to choose two of them.

Garza has 848 career strikeouts in 1007 innings. He has a career 3.85 era and a career 1.29 whip over those 1007 innings. Garza is a strikeout pitcher who puts up a very high k/9, especially with those being career numbers.

Guthrie on the other hand, while pitching a very similar number of innings, 1089, has a 4.33 era and a 1.32 whip.

However, in those 1089 innings, he has only struck out 662 batters. So again, Garza has 82 less career innings and 186 more strikeouts in those 82 less innings.

Guthrie relies on contact to get batters out while Garza has much more ability to get himself out of his own jams.

The two pitchers have very little in common besides the fabricated numbers you came up with by picking and choosing 2007-11 for one pitcher and 2008-11 for another.

Only a person with limited intelligence? would compare 07-11 for one pitcher and 08-11 for another, thus leaving out the 07-08 season for Garza, which, oh man, SHOCKINGLY, was the best statistical season of his career.

Again, your comparison of Garza to Guthrie was poor and filled with errors (they are completely different types of pitchers as their strikeout numbers show and Garza's numbers are clearly better over his ENTIRE CAREER despite the silly, sad attempt you made at picking and choosing when to start the comparisons for each pitcher from).

Finally, yes, it WAS a terrible comparison as I stated the first time. Thanks for playing.

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I was more referring to the fact that they are completely different types of pitchers. There are a TON of different pitchers will similiar ERA+ that have very little in common. You managed to choose two of them.

Garza has 848 career strikeouts in 1007 innings. He has a career 3.85 era and a career 1.29 whip over those 1007 innings. Garza is a strikeout pitcher who puts up a very high k/9' date=' especially with those being career numbers.

Guthrie on the other hand, while pitching a very similar number of innings, 1089, has a 4.33 era and a 1.32 whip.

However, in those 1089 innings, he has only struck out 662 batters. So again, Garza has 82 less career innings and 186 more strikeouts in those 82 less innings.

Guthrie relies on contact to get batters out while Garza has much more ability to get himself out of his own jams.

The two pitchers have very little in common besides the fabricated numbers you came up with by picking and choosing 2007-11 for one pitcher and 2008-11 for another.

Only a person with limited intelligence? would compare 07-11 for one pitcher and 08-11 for another, thus leaving out the 07-08 season for Garza, which, oh man, SHOCKINGLY, was the best statistical season of his career.

Again, your comparison of Garza to Guthrie was poor and filled with errors (they are completely different types of pitchers as their strikeout numbers show and Garza's numbers are clearly better over his ENTIRE CAREER despite the silly, sad attempt you made at picking and choosing when to start the comparisons for each pitcher from).

Finally, yes, it WAS a terrible comparison as I stated the first time. Thanks for playing.[/quote']

I'd honestly be embarrassed if I was you. You're the one that is factually incorrect, and yet, you have the gall to accuse me of the same.

1) Innings pitched and ERA+ are not fabricated numbers by any stretch of the imagination.

So you clearly don't understand what the word "fabricated" means.

2) I used 07-11 for Guthrie because those are all his years as a starting pitcher at the ML level. I used 08-11 for Garza because those are all his years at a starting pitcher at the major league level. 07 was Garza's rookie season; it was less than half a season, and it was easily his worst season statistically. 08-11 included the 08 season, as anybody w half a functioning brain would realize.

So you clearly don't know Garza's history.

You clearly seemed confused by what the word "best" means- hint, it doesn't mean worst.

And you either have problems w the simple logic of inclusion, or w counting itself. I'll admit, I'm stumped by that one.

Yes, Garza strikes out more batters. That doesn't change the fact that w the exception of this year- which is no highlight reel for Garza I might add- Jeremy Guthrie and Matt Garza had virtually identical statistics in the two stats that matter most: ERA+ and innings pitched.

Just some advice: Learn to read; learn simple logic; and don't go spouting off about things you clearly can't or don't understand.

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The numbers are what the numbers are. Over the course of his career, garza has been significantly better despite just now entering his prime. Garza's best years are ahead of him while Guthrie is currently toast.

The numbers favor garza over the course of his career.

They are also entirely different types of pitchers, as I tried to explain to you and which you so miserably failed to understand.

Really simple now for you since your mathematical cognition skills are clearly lacking or underdeveloped.

IT WAS A POOR COMPARISON. They have very little in common in styles of pitching nor career numbers.

Era+ is not a fabricated stat.....but just randomly choosing two guys and saying "they have similiar era+'s, therefore they are similiar pitchers", is just absurd.

Again, garza and guthrie, OVERALL, have very little in common as pitchers, if anyone else wants to weigh in on this feel free because it seems I am talking to a brick wall.

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The numbers are what the numbers are. Over the course of his career' date=' garza has been significantly better despite just now entering his prime. Garza's best years are ahead of him while Guthrie is currently toast.

The numbers favor garza over the course of his career.

[/quote']

Have to say I agree with this post.

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The numbers are what the numbers are. Over the course of his career' date=' garza has been significantly better despite just now entering his prime. Garza's best years are ahead of him while Guthrie is currently toast.[/quote']

I have never said differently. That's not the thrust of my point. My point is trading for Garza he is likely to give us going forward something extremely similar to what Guthrie gave us previously.

It takes some real foresight to say Garza's best years are ahead of him, when he is currently having the worst season of his career since his debut.

The numbers favor garza over the course of his career.

Very slightly. Very, very slightly.

They are also entirely different types of pitchers, as I tried to explain to you and which you so miserably failed to understand.

Yes, I fail to understand it so much that before you chimed in w your brilliant analysis I as much as said "they're different kinds of pitchers.

Seriously, can you read?

Really simple now for you since your mathematical cognition skills are clearly lacking or underdeveloped.

This is downright laughable coming from you, as anybody who has read this thread has seen you fail to grasp simple concepts again and again. You know what Socrates said about the ignorant, don't you? Actually I'm sure you don't, but it's quite apropos here.

IT WAS A POOR COMPARISON. They have very little in common in styles of pitching nor career numbers.

Garza strikes out more guys. But in the previous 5 season, which encompass the entirety of their respective careers as starters they have equitable innings pitched, ERA+, WHIPs, H/9, HR/9. Yes, there numbers are in no way, shape or form similar- except that they are, with the lone exception being that Garza Ks 2 more per 9.

Era+ is not a fabricated stat....

So did you just learn what ERA+ is, or did you just learn what fabricated means?

but just randomly choosing two guys and saying "they have similiar era+'s, therefore they are similiar pitchers", is just absurd.

As has been shown, the similarities extend beyond that. They have performed almost identically over the last 5 years w the lone exception being K rate.

Again, garza and guthrie, OVERALL, have very little in common as pitchers, if anyone else wants to weigh in on this feel free because it seems I am talking to a brick wall.

You're a truly dense, dense man.

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I'll spell out my "poor, poor analysis" because obviously you have an extremely limited amount of intelligence and I need to be as clear as possible so you can wrap your miniscule mind around it:
I'd honestly be embarrassed if I was you.
You clearly seemed confused by what the word "best" means- hint, it doesn't mean worst.
And you either have problems w the simple logic of inclusion, or w counting itself. I'll admit, I'm stumped by that one.
Just some advice: Learn to read; learn simple logic; and don't go spouting off about things you clearly can't or don't understand.
Seriously, can you read?
This is downright laughable coming from you, as anybody who has read this thread has seen you fail to grasp simple concepts again and again. You know what Socrates said about the ignorant, don't you? Actually I'm sure you don't, but it's quite apropos here.
So did you just learn what ERA+ is, or did you just learn what fabricated means?
You're a truly dense, dense man.

Read this back and ask yourself why you think you need to say things like this to make your point?

It takes away from an otherwise extremely solid point, that I happen to agree with 100%.

Just my .02 cents. (not that you care)

As for the OP, I actually agree with Brianod (not with using W's as a measurement). Garza is no savior, and will likely be too expensive.

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They're not the same kind of pitcher but Guts and Garza match up, excluding this year, over the last 5 almost identical in terms of ERA+ and innings pitched. Almost identically.

Bingo. For the life of me, I don't understand how some on this board impart greatness to Garza. He's an above average innings eater. Not a 1, not a 2, maybe a solid 3.

Some would like to negate my point by citing wins and laughing that I mention them. My point is that Garza is not an ace and is not an "anchor". I mention wins because aces and anchors win. If you want a solid number 3 or a below average #2, wins aren't important. But, if you are thinking of trading top prospects for an ace, then wins can be important. Garza is no ace.

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Bingo. For the life of me, I don't understand how some on this board impart greatness to Garza. He's an above average innings eater. Not a 1, not a 2, maybe a solid 3.

Some would like to negate my point by citing wins and laughing that I mention them. My point is that Garza is not an ace and is not an "anchor". I mention wins because aces and anchors win. If you want a solid number 3 or a below average #2, wins aren't important. But, if you are thinking of trading top prospects for an ace, then wins can be important. Garza is no ace.

Quality pitchers will get wins when pitching for quality teams. Quality pitchers may not get wins when pitching for poor teams. Lack of wins does not make a quality pitcher a non-quality pitcher. Case in point, 2010 Cy Young Award winner, Felix Hernandez, who went 13-12 with a 2.27 ERA and 232 K's in 249.2 IP. On the Yankee$ he might have won 20-23 games that season. On the 101 loss Mariners that year, however, he was only able to win 13.

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Garza is 29 and Guthrie is 33. Garza numbers are trending upward in comparison to his career averag. He K's more than Guthrie, walks fewer, has a lower career FIP, and most imortantly gives up fewer HR's. Garza is in the middle of his prime. Guthrie's best season would barely equal Garza's career average season, if at all. No oe is contending Garza is a TOR and would be worth giving up Bundy and/or Machado. He would be a big upgrade for our current rotation. About as good as Chen iIMO. Be nice to have 2 Chens.

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