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Matt Garza, Savior?

brianod

By brianod
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brianod

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Sorry - Dont want him

I want a rotation of Hammel, Chen, Arietta, Tillman and Britton. Very likely as good as having Garza and really lets us see what we have for next year and beyond

I tend to agree. With Arietta and Britton major question marks, we need a backup plan, maybe two. That being said, backup plans should not cost a prime prospect. I'm thinking we pick up a couple of starters like Moyer that may or may not pan out. Of course, if the cubs want to give up someone for a minor prospect, fine. The point of this thread is that we should not grasp for an above average pitcher at this point. Patience, see what we have.

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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You have provided the numbers but they don't necessarily assert your claim. Garza has superior SO to BB numbers and gives up far less home runs than Guthrie. Admittedly Garza has been helped there in years past with a pitching friendly environment like Tropicana. Garza's ERA for his career in 3.85, while Guthrie's is 4.34. Garza has compiled better WAR stats. He's just a better overall pitcher than Guthrie. I just don't see Guthrie as a good comp.

I liked Guthrie and I thought he did well with the Orioles during his time here. But Garza is better. He's certainly not a top of the rotation guy, but could he fit in well as a 2 or 3...yes!

Again, you, nor anyone else, has refuted anything I've said. Yes, Garza Ks more batters. That's undeniable. And hence, the better war. But when it comes to actuall production, not hypotheticals like war, they are very similar pitchers.

Yes, Guts ERA is higher. And you know why. Because he pitched in far more difficult environs, hence why their ERA+s for the last 4 and 5 years respectively are almost identical. As are their WHIPs, as are their HR/9 when adjusted for enviroments.

They are not the same exact pitcher. But they share a similar level of production for several years now. There's no reason on earth to think Garza would come to Baltimore and signifigantly outperform what Guts did the last 5 years. None.

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CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

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While I think there are some similarities, Garza is 28 and Guthrie is 34. Guthrie has clearly been trending negatively (statistically) and I would also argue his stuff has noticeably declined (the last couple of years imo). Really not a good comparison as of now or what we'll likely see over the next 2-4 years. I agree with Pickles basic assertion that Garza isn't all that great and the ERA is a bad gauge. I would not be thrilled to give up a top prospect like Schoop for Garza. Interesting to note that that Garza was more of a FB pitcher in TB (where that played well for him) and has become more of a GB pitcher in CHI.

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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While I think there are some similarities, Garza is 28 and Guthrie is 34. Guthrie has clearly been trending negatively (statistically) and I would also argue his stuff has noticeably declined (the last couple of years imo). Really not a good comparison as of now or what we'll likely see over the next 2-4 years. I agree with Pickles basic assertion that Garza isn't all that great and the ERA is a bad gauge. I would not be thrilled to give up a top prospect like Schoop for Garza. Interesting to note that that Garza was more of a FB pitcher in TB (where that played well for him) and has become more of a GB pitcher in CHI.

Nobody's saying Garza isn't a better bet going forward than Guthrie.

All I'm saying is, you want to know what you're going to likely get from Garza here? Well, you saw it for the last 5 years w Guthrie. Whatever a year and a half of that is worth, is what you think Garza is worth. He is by no means a TOR starter.

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CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

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Nobody's saying Garza isn't a better bet going forward than Guthrie.

All I'm saying is, you want to know what you're going to likely get from Garza here? Well, you saw it for the last 5 years w Guthrie. Whatever a year and a half of that is worth, is what you think Garza is worth. He is by no means a TOR starter.

I'd guess the next year and half of Garza would probably be worth more than the last three of Guthrie. But not a lot more, and I agree with you that Garza isn't all that great (certainly not a TOR), and I'm hesitant to give up very much for him. This CHI thing quite frankly scares me. I think we're on the same page.

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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I'd guess the next year and half of Garza would probably be worth more than the last three of Guthrie. But not a lot more, and I agree with you that Garza isn't all that great (certainly not a TOR), and I'm hesitant to give up very much for him. This CHI thing quite frankly scares me. I think we're on the same page.

Perhaps, but I don't believe it will be radically so.

Yeah, I didn't like the Thome trade on GP, but I can live w it.

But if I wake up one day to read that we've traded Schoop, Avery, and Bridwell for Garza and Soriano, I'll be quite disappointed.

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CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

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Perhaps, but I don't believe it will be radically so.

Yeah, I didn't like the Thome trade on GP, but I can live w it.

But if I wake up one day to read that we've traded Schoop, Avery, and Bridwell for Garza and Soriano, I'll be quite disappointed.

I'm with you here.

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Il BuonO Hangout Grand Counsel

Il BuonO

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Perhaps, but I don't believe it will be radically so.

Yeah, I didn't like the Thome trade on GP, but I can live w it.

But if I wake up one day to read that we've traded Schoop, Avery, and Bridwell for Garza and Soriano, I'll be quite disappointed.

I'm with you here.

Me as well. Would be a waste of talent.

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Tx Oriole Hangout Grand Counsel

Tx Oriole

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For all the snarky comments about Ws, as technically correct as they may be, the OP has a valid point. Garza isn't a great pitcher by any stretch of the imagination. He's Jeremy Guthrie. Is a season and a half of Jeremy Guthrie worth giving up a top prospect? Not in my opinion.

Wow did your pickle get pickled? Guts is nowhere near as good as Garza. Now i dont want the team trading Bundy and or Machado for Garza but if it is possible to get him without the top prospects then so be it. Guthrie would never be as good as Garza. IMO

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Rene88 Hangout Grand Counsel

Rene88

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While I think there are some similarities, Garza is 28 and Guthrie is 34. Guthrie has clearly been trending negatively (statistically) and I would also argue his stuff has noticeably declined (the last couple of years imo). Really not a good comparison as of now or what we'll likely see over the next 2-4 years. I agree with Pickles basic assertion that Garza isn't all that great and the ERA is a bad gauge. I would not be thrilled to give up a top prospect like Schoop for Garza. Interesting to note that that Garza was more of a FB pitcher in TB (where that played well for him) and has become more of a GB pitcher in CHI.

Jeremy Guthrie is not 34.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7040

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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Wow did your pickle get pickled? Guts is nowhere near as good as Garza. Now i dont want the team trading Bundy and or Machado for Garza but if it is possible to get him without the top prospects then so be it. Guthrie would never be as good as Garza. IMO

Read the stats I've provided over and over again this entire thread.

Garza Ks more batters. Other than that, the two are extremely close in just about every other category.

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