Help convince me we shouldn't be trading Jim Johnson

[El Gordo]

I think at the dead line it will be pretty clear what we should do. I'm all in favor of selling any player high. But if we are in the playoff race still, I would be hesitant to trade perhaps the best closer in the AL for future prospects. The best team for a JJ deal is is LAA IMO. If they want to part with Trumbo/Morales and Callaspo/Izturis, I have to listen, and see what happens with Strop and Lindstrom.

[Lucky Jim]

I think at the dead line it will be pretty clear what we should do. I'm all in favor of selling any player high. But if we are in the playoff race still, I would be hesitant to trade perhaps the best closer in the AL for future prospects. The best team for a JJ deal is is LAA IMO. If they want to part with Trumbo/Morales and Callaspo/Izturis, I have to listen, and see what happens with Strop and Lindstrom.

Why LAA? They have Frieri and Downs.

[Leitch]

A closer with a 3.50 xFIP, a 1ish walk rate and a 60+ GB% is still pretty damn good, and even adjusting for all the luck and randomness and whatnot we're still a .500 team going forward, which more than likely puts us in the race, esp. if we can upgrade.

[mark_beckens]

A closer with a 3.50 xFIP, a 1ish walk rate and a 60+ GB% is still pretty damn good, and even adjusting for all the luck and randomness and whatnot we're still a .500 team going forward, which more than likely puts us in the race, esp. if we can upgrade.

we're a 500+ team cause of the bullpen and Johnson. alot of close, 1 run games, without them and him we are probably 10-15 games worse off

[El Gordo]

Why LAA? They have Frieri and Downs.

And who else?

[Lucky Jim]

And who else?

Latroy Hawkins. Isringhausen. Takahashi. Jordan Walden.

But that's beside the point. Why would they trade for a guy whose value is in high-leverage situations when they're pretty well-covered in high-leverage situations? As of a couple of weeks ago, they were saying this:

In the Angels’ first 32 games, the bullpen was 1-6 with a 4.70 ERA and four saves.

In the last 41 games, it is 7-2 with a 1.87 ERA and 13 saves. Angels relievers haven’t allowed a run in nearly a week.

I think their bullpen ERA in June was like 2.00. They can't possibly be our best match.

[EagleOriole]

Stop looking at peripherals. Start watching baseball. He deals. We have three all-stars. We have a good young foundation. What message does it send trading one of them?

[Can_of_corn]

Stop looking at peripherals. Start watching baseball. He deals. We have three all-stars. We have a good young foundation. What message does it send trading one of them?

That "we" would rather have more young talent then overspend on a relief pitcher.

[maybenxtyr]

Stop looking at peripherals. Start watching baseball. He deals. We have three all-stars. We have a good young foundation. What message does it send trading one of them?

The main reason this team could look to trade him is to answer another need. I like JJ, but relief pitchers are never guaranteed success year to year. I think JJ will remain a good option, but this team has a lot of needs, and to get something you have to give up something.

Also, we(fans) have no idea what the payroll will be next year. Just looking at what it has been, it's going to be hard for DD to improve this team. Hopefully the payroll can increase, but Angelos has not allowed it lately. They will need to continue to get younger and cheaper players to keep improving.

[LibertyTerp]

Don't trade Johnson. Make him a long reliever that comes in early when the game is tied or within one run, especially when there are runners in scoring position. The time when the outcome of the game is least in doubt is the 9th inning when a team has a lead. We're using our best pitcher in situations where we are statistically over 90% likely to win regardless of who pitches (9th inning ahead by 1-3). We would win more games this year if we give Johnson as many innings as possible in situations where the outcome of the game is most in doubt, like when we're tied in the 7th inning with two runners on base. That's a situation where the game is on the line, not when we're ahead by 2 in the in the 9th inning with no one on base.

Win Probability Inquirer: http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/other/wpa_inquirer.php?view=standard&runs=4.5&base=7&inning=11&outs=0&score=1

(play with it to find the situations where the outcome of the game is most in doubt, which is when we should be putting Johnson in if we wanted to win instead of being scared to shake things up)

[Lucky Jim]

Where did Gordo go?

[Round Tripper]

For how long do we have JJ signed?

[Can_of_corn]

Don't trade Johnson. Make him a long reliever that comes in early when the game is tied or within one run, especially when there are runners in scoring position. The time when the outcome of the game is least in doubt is the 9th inning when a team has a lead. We're using our best pitcher in situations where we are statistically over 90% likely to win regardless of who pitches (9th inning ahead by 1-3). We would win more games this year if we give Johnson as many innings as possible in situations where the outcome of the game is most in doubt, like when we're tied in the 7th inning with two runners on base. That's a situation where the game is on the line, not when we're ahead by 2 in the in the 9th inning with no one on base.

As much as I agree with parts of what you are saying, you can't do something that drastic at this stage in the game.

The manager would have a players' revolt on his hands.

[sangar]

Latroy Hawkins. Isringhausen. Takahashi. Jordan Walden.

But that's beside the point. Why would they trade for a guy whose value is in high-leverage situations when they're pretty well-covered in high-leverage situations? As of a couple of weeks ago, they were saying this:

I think their bullpen ERA in June was like 2.00. They can't possibly be our best match.

I'm too lazy to look for a link, unless it becomes an issue, but the Angels have said several times recently that they would like to add a high quality reliever for the 7th inning. Walden's 1.577 WHIP is not getting the job done. Bourjos is their most valuable trade chip but they have several prospects who they would likely deal.

[Lucky Jim]

I'm too lazy to look for a link, unless it becomes an issue, but the Angels have said several times recently that they would like to add a high quality reliever for the 7th inning. Walden's 1.577 WHIP is not getting the job done. Bourjos is their most valuable trade chip but they have several prospects who they would likely deal.

I agree -most teams could use a high quality reliever. But are they going to pay for a guy w/ a 1ish ERA, who leads the league in saves to do so? My point isn't that there's not a need there - but there's not a pressing need, and there's definitely not a need right now for a "closer." Letting Johnson go for sub-closer premium seems unnecessary.