Could Orioles trade Jim Johnson for Porcello?

[CA-ORIOLE]

I would be hesitant only because I haven't totally given up on JJ as a starter. His development of his curveball gives him 3 plus pitches, and we all know how good of a frame he has.

In which case, him and Porcello are somewhat similar. Even with JJ losing 3-4 mph off of his fastball for stamina reasons, I have to think he has similar-to-better stuff.

I think he's capable of being a decent starter, I'm just not sure that it makes sense at this point. Even as a reliever he seems to lose his release point fairly frequently. As a reliever, I think his stuff is good enough to overcome that. As a starter, I'm just not sure his mechanics are consistent enough and that it's worth it to transition at this point.

[El Gordo]

We may have a few guys already who are better than Porcello, so why give up Johnson? No need in listing the names. He's no better than an Arrieta or Maturz or Britton I don't think.

I agree with this and would add Wada as well. I'm not averse to trading JJ but for something better than Porcello.

[MachadOboutManny]

I agree...if you define "miserable offseason" as putting some touches on perhaps the best team in baseball.

Washington had the best record in baseball while having to shut down Stras who was coming off TJ. They had the best record in baseball while dealing with some injuries and bringing up a 19 year old. They gave up a prospect I like a great deal for Span, who has been injured recently. They just gave up a ton of money for an aging RP who has had injury concerns while letting all their left handed arms walk. They gave too much money to Haren, who I expect to get hit hard this season. I dont think he was worth much, certainly not what Washington gave him. They were set, imo. I know you think very highly of yourself, but I don't think Washington is better than they were. I appreciate your sanctimonious attitude, but other people know a bit about baseball too. We'll see.

[MachadOboutManny]

Yes, you've pretty well nailed the Peter Angelos/Jim Hunter spin on the offseason.

Spin? People cant actually believe this? What moves were the Os supposed to make that would have made you happier? I love the O's offseason. I have explained why. There were people available who got more money than they're worth and Im glad the Os stayed away. I have posted my take as to why and, as always, time will well.

[brianod]

Porcello wouldn't make the rotation of the O's. The fact is that his era over 4 years of service are: 3.96, 4.92, 4.75 and 4.59. Throw out his rookie year and he is what he is. A solid 5th starter. Given that he pitches in Comerica, I'd rather have Arrieta and Matusz then Porcello. In fact, if the Tigers gave him to us, I'd say thanks and see if he could compete for our 4th or 5th starter. Some people are bound and determined to trade JJ because they adhere to the notion that closers are a dime a dozen. Fine. Why don't we try to get someone who is actually worth something before we consider trading JJ.

[MachadOboutManny]

They kept Lannan in the minors all year. He would be a nice 6th starter.

Davey has called Garcia their "6th starter", though I dont think Rizzo is buying in. Garcia should stay in the Pen, he has amazing stuff and has been injured several times as a starter. They would have done well to have left him in the pen, kept their draft pick and money, and let Soriano find work elsewhere. imo.

[MachadOboutManny]

Porcello wouldn't make the rotation of the O's. The fact is that his era over 4 years of service are: 3.96, 4.92, 4.75 and 4.59. Throw out his rookie year and he is what he is. A solid 5th starter. Given that he pitches in Comerica, I'd rather have Arrieta and Matusz then Porcello. In fact, if the Tigers gave him to us, I'd say thanks and see if he could compete for our 4th or 5th starter. Some people are bound and determined to trade JJ because they adhere to the notion that closers are a dime a dozen. Fine. Why don't we try to get someone who is actually worth something before we consider trading JJ.

The only good thing about him is that he is a ground ball pitcher and Baltimore has a much better infield than Detroit does. I think Rick would be served well to pitch elsewhere, but I also don't see him as a fit here.

[crawjo]

I think we can view/sell JJ as a shutdown reliever/closer rather than a save compiler. Those guys seem to be doing quite well. As Stotle said, GM's are probably looking for some type of track record, but it's not unreasonable to me that JJ could be a shutdown closer for another 2-3 years. In that sense he should not be viewed anywhere near a Joe Borowski ... at least imo.

I'm kinda torn on this one. "Sabremetric me" says we should probably trade JJ this offseason and establish someone like Hunter or Strop to replace him. That said, it was pretty damn nice having a guy like JJ (instead of Capt Chaos etc.) coming into games and shutting the opponent down. Personally, I don't think we should trade JJ for Porcello and should hold out for more.

I know Johnson is a groundball machine but IMO his K rate is too low to make the case that he's a shutdown closer. If I were a rival GM I'd see him as a reliable closer but not an elite guy.

What I like about Porcello is that he's young, under team control for three more years, and has seen improvements in his K rate each of the last two seasons. Also, as a groundball pitcher he's horribly suited for Detroit, which has the worst infield defense in baseball. No wonder he led the league by giving up 226 hits last season. I think if you put him in front of a good infield defense (and the Orioles have a pretty good one, especially on the left side), his ERA would go down a lot. I don't at all agree that he's no better than the leftover options the Orioles have for the rotation at the moment. If I were building a rotation right now based on the guys we currently have in our organization, I'd have him no worse than fourth. Something like 1. Hammel 2. Tillman 3. Chen 4. Porcello. And given his talent and age, it would not surprise me if he became one of our best 2 starters next year. I definitely like him more than Gonzalez and more than Arrieta, Matusz and Britton.

[wildbillhiccup]

Anyone who endorses a straight up trade of Johnson for Porcello should be forced to automatically lose all arguments for the next next six months. This is just straight up nonsense.

[brianod]

I know Johnson is a groundball machine but IMO his K rate is too low to make the case that he's a shutdown closer. If I were a rival GM I'd see him as a reliable closer but not an elite guy.

What I like about Porcello is that he's young, under team control for three more years, and has seen improvements in his K rate each of the last two seasons. Also, as a groundball pitcher he's horribly suited for Detroit, which has the worst infield defense in baseball. No wonder he led the league by giving up 226 hits last season. I think if you put him in front of a good infield defense (and the Orioles have a pretty good one, especially on the left side), his ERA would go down a lot. I don't at all agree that he's no better than the leftover options the Orioles have for the rotation at the moment. If I were building a rotation right now based on the guys we currently have in our organization, I'd have him no worse than fourth. Something like 1. Hammel 2. Tillman 3. Chen 4. Porcello. And given his talent and age, it would not surprise me if he became one of our best 2 starters next year. I definitely like him more than Gonzalez and more than Arrieta, Matusz and Britton.

When Porcello makes a mistake in Comerica, it gets hauled in for a long out. When he makes a mistake in Camden Yards, it doesn't. No thanks. He gave up the most hits in baseball and you want to employ him in a hitters park and depend on our defense to bail him out? And, you want to trade JJ for the privilege?

[brianod]

Anyone who endorses a straight up trade of Johnson for Porcello should be forced to automatically lose all arguments for the next next six months. This is just straight up nonsense.

God love ya. I'm hyperventilating. At my age, that's not good!

[MrOrange82]

Washington had the best record in baseball while having to shut down Stras who was coming off TJ. They had the best record in baseball while dealing with some injuries and bringing up a 19 year old. They gave up a prospect I like a great deal for Span, who has been injured recently. They just gave up a ton of money for an aging RP who has had injury concerns while letting all their left handed arms walk. They gave too much money to Haren, who I expect to get hit hard this season. I dont think he was worth much, certainly not what Washington gave him. They were set, imo. I know you think very highly of yourself, but I don't think Washington is better than they were. I appreciate your sanctimonious attitude, but other people know a bit about baseball too. We'll see.

Your own post does nothing to refute the idea in Stotle's that the Nationals put the finishing touches on the best team in baseball. In fact, it reflects the fact that your previously stated absolute (i.e., "miserable" offseason) is actually...not an absolute, and the quality of the Nationals' offseason is open to interpretation.

And, to top it off, Stotle responds to your subjective hyperbole with an extremely mild bit of sarcasm...and he's sanctimonious?

C'mon...

[MachadOboutManny]

Your own post does nothing to refute the idea in Stotle's that the Nationals put the finishing touches on the best team in baseball. In fact, it reflects the fact that your previously stated absolute (i.e., "miserable" offseason) is actually...not an absolute, and the quality of the Nationals' offseason is open to interpretation.

And, to top it off, Stotle responds to your subjective hyperbole with an extremely mild bit of sarcasm...and he's sanctimonious?

C'mon...

His post contained no substance, it contained some arrogance and some attitude, yet you say I have not refuted his "idea"? Talk about reaching. I never said anything was absolute, I gave my opinion and he responded like a ..... ? I think Washington has had a miserable offseason by making unnecessary moves. I believe their team was set and the fact that they had the best record in baseball, despite the things I mentioned (Morse injury/Zimmermans struggles at 3rd/bringing up a 19 year old/Storen Injury/Stras coming back from injury and being shut down/etc) seems to back that up. Those are things that actually happened and all things that the Nats overcame last year in earning the #1 seed in the NL.

Im not high on Span, and Im less high on him coming off a few years with injuries and at the cost of Morse and Meyer. Im not high on Haren. Im not high on Soriano at this age and price. I think Lannan would have been better in the 5th spot than Haren will be.

His reply was the definition of sanctimonious. Unwarranted, bs. It happens and I replied.

Washington had/has a great thing going and I don't think they should have interrupted it as they did. Their clubhouse has been great and their farm system is low on arms. I believe Washington is worse off now than they were to end their season and I believe the moves they made were losses.

I post about baseball. I spoke specifically. You are defending? Good stuff.

[Norfolk orioles]

Jim Johnson was arguably our best overall pitcher last year and probably our pitching MVP.

Why would we trade him for a guy who got hit around in a pitcher friendly park and weaken the strongest part of our team?

I understand the arguments that he is an expensive relief pitcher, but look at last years playoffs and how valuable relief pitching/closing REALLY was.......

Johnson is our best reliever, one of the best in baseball and a hell of a piece to have on a (hopefully) contending team. Porcello is a run of the mill starter that we already have plenty of. I'd rather hope one of (britton, matusz, Steve Johnson or arrieta) is able to improve from last year and give us a reliable starter long enough for gausman or bundy to get up here. Or maybe wada comes in and performs up to Chen's standards......who knows.

Plus we could always just resign Saunders to go along with hammel, Chen, tillman and gonzo.

I think we have enough solid young arms with "potential" already....

If any of the young guys listed above can turn it on and get back to their old form, porcello might not even be able to crack our rotation.

Yeah, I get that he is a groundball pitcher with a bad defense behind him, but he also pitches in a very pitcher friendly ballpark and pitches in the VERY light hitting AL Central.

I'm not all that convinced his era would drop in Camden yards with a improved defense.

So with that in mind, keep Jim another year and see if we/he can repeat his performance from last year. If we look like we are out of contention by the trade deadline (which hopefully won't be the case, but if it is....), trade him for porcello or some other solid young pitching prospect.

But frankly, I don't see porcello as a "difference maker" but I absolutely see a lights out closer a difference maker. Just my opinion.

Ask the tigers if they would have rather had Johnson than valverde last year and their heads would fly off. Ask an O's fan if they'd rather have had porcello or Jim Johnson last year and we'd pretty much all have taken Johnson. The point is, a closer IS important to a team, more important in my opinion than a fifth starter, regardless of what some advanced metrics may say.

You can't measure psychological effect on a baseball team or pitching staff, but guys knowing that they have a hammer out in the bullpen and that they can shorten games, be more effective with their pitch selection and count etc. because they can trust the bullpen DOES have a positive effect on a team and a staff, one that just doesn't show up in WAR or any other advanced metrics.

Just my opinion anyways. I'll take an elite all star closer in his prime over a young fifth starter with mediocre numbers in a pitcher friendly park/division on a potential PLAYOFF team any day of the week. If we were rebuilding than yeah, I'd take porcello for sure. But we made the playoffs last year and came very close to beating the Yankees and going to the alcs.

I'd keep Johnson for another year to see just how well we can do following up last years incredible performance.

[Norfolk orioles]

When Porcello makes a mistake in Comerica, it gets hauled in for a long out. When he makes a mistake in Camden Yards, it doesn't. No thanks. He gave up the most hits in baseball and you want to employ him in a hitters park and depend on our defense to bail him out? And, you want to trade JJ for the privilege?

To quote Hanz landa, "that's a bingo!" Well said and pretty much the truth of the matter. He'd get crushed pitching in the new look AL East with Toronto, a healthy Tampa bay, NY and Boston, especially pitching in Camden Yards.