Bill James Projections...would you be happy?

[Bahama O's Fan]

How close was he on last year's numbers?

[scOtt]

Thing is with projections, no one is ever going to project a near-nothing season unless the player just got out of surgery and isn't expected until September. And if a player has a recent history with injury, like the past three years with Nolan, no analyst in their right mind would project a 150+ game season. Middle ground is the only reasonable choice.

That's very true. A prognosticator, especially of his reputation, has to cover his butt. And I don't mean that in a bad way. It's just the way it is.

[SrMeowMeow]

That's very true. A prognosticator, especially of his reputation, has to cover his butt. And I don't mean that in a bad way. It's just the way it is.

More trying to accurately describe probabilities than covering one's butt, even without any negative connotations. Nolan's games played in 2013 is a really high variance prediction, and, while a simple average of possible outcomes doesn't convey that variance well, it's still a legitimate projection. Also, I don't think there's a huge reason to think that Nolan will play either a whole season or nothing. I could easily see him going down with nagging injuries here and there, or losing playing time, or platooning a bit.

[Ven6]

So he's got Hoes driving in 63 runs and scoring 77? I don't have him getting 63 PAs this year.

[Can_of_corn]

So he's got Hoes driving in 63 runs and scoring 77? I don't have him getting 63 PAs this year.

James is obviously a big fan of Hoes.

[Ven6]

James is obviously a big fan of Hoes.

Yes, he seems confident Hoes goes from a 7th or so OFer to starting.

[HokieOs]

I'd also be pretty unhappy with a 146-game season.

Ha, didn't see that. Well I'd also not be happy with a 77 or 78 win season (as that percentage projects out over 162 games). Though unfortunately, I'd say that's a pretty realistically guess for the Os this year.

[Can_of_corn]

Yes, he seems confident Hoes goes from a 7th or so OFer to starting.

Maybe he still thinks Hoes can play second? If he could I would give him the job out of ST.

[Ven6]

Maybe he still thinks Hoes can play second? If he could I would give him the job out of ST.

Damn "toolsy" draft choices that are too "raw" and unpolished with the glove to play infield but don't hit enough to play outfield.

[scOtt]

More trying to accurately describe probabilities than covering one's butt, even without any negative connotations. Nolan's games played in 2013 is a really high variance prediction, and, while a simple average of possible outcomes doesn't convey that variance well, it's still a legitimate projection. Also, I don't think there's a huge reason to think that Nolan will play either a whole season or nothing. I could easily see him going down with nagging injuries here and there, or losing playing time, or platooning a bit.

I can see him platooning a lot too. Keep his numbers up and him rested. Buck's great at that.

[Moose Milligan]

I'd love to see Bill James create an OH account to come in here and just start whipping around smarmy egotistical one-liners on why he's brilliant and how we're all peons, lucky enough to be talking about things he's written.

Some of these predictions don't add up. I'd love to know how he came up with Hoes' stats, for example.

[Orioles0615]

I'd love to see Bill James create an OH account to come in here and just start whipping around smarmy egotistical one-liners on why he's brilliant and how we're all peons, lucky enough to be talking about things he's written.

Some of these predictions don't add up. I'd love to know how he came up with Hoes' stats, for example.

Didn't someone used to do that....

[SrMeowMeow]

Bill James is sort of infamous for always making optimistic offensive projections. I don't understand it.

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

I don't see how Arrieta with a 4.25 ERA is a NO but Tillman with a 4.31 is an OK.

Should have explained my rationale. It wasn't just about the ERA. It was an IP thing. Somehow only has Jake pitching 35 innings? I don't think that would be successful, even out of the bullpen. Must be predicting injury, because a 4.25 ERA won't get you yanked..

[DrungoHazewood]

I'd love to see Bill James create an OH account to come in here and just start whipping around smarmy egotistical one-liners on why he's brilliant and how we're all peons, lucky enough to be talking about things he's written.

Some of these predictions don't add up. I'd love to know how he came up with Hoes' stats, for example.

Do you really hate Bill James, or are you just trying to get me stirred up?